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RefWatch – Blackpool v Arsenal (10/04/2011 13:30)

RefWatch – Blackpool v Arsenal (10/04/2011 13:30)

By DogFace

  • Referee:              Lee Mason
  • Assistant 1:         Andy Halliday
  • Assistant 2:         Mick McDonough
  • 4th Official:         Mark Halsey

Good morning stat-fans and welcome to RefWatch lite.  This week I’m not going to give you all the usual blah… probably because its 22:30 and I’m pooped – I’ve spent a little time over the last few weeks re-engineering my database and having some fun.  It’s sad, I know, but football statistics and data modelling are the equivalent of the latest computer game for me, I crack the codes – pound the keys and go ‘ooh’ at what pops out the other side.  On Friday I indulged in a little exercise called ‘The Predictortron’ – this was an algorithm that stood on the shoulders of the on previous procedures and data models I have written and would model match form against bias to essentially work out how many goals better one team was against the other for any given match.  It’s still a little crude – and this was its first outing – as it were… I did a quick test it on last week’s matches with a representative (older) dataset and it got 50% correct – so I wasn’t expecting much.  Today, however the Predictortron ™ toddled off and slurped up the fixtures and official data and spat out some rather interesting results – out of the seven matches it got five correct and 2 wrong… the most surprising thing was that the predicted goal differences for the correct matched were spot on.

This made me go ‘ooh’ – surely this isn’t chance and, if this isn’t chance then what does that say about the EPL officials whose statistics form a rather large part of my calculations?

Let’s have a look at Referee:

  • Full name:                           Lee S[hit]. Mason
  • Date of birth:                     29 October 1971 (1971-10-29) (age 39)
  • Place of birth:                    Bolton, Lancashire, England
  • EPL Referee Since:          2005/2006
  • EPL Games to date:         79


Robin and I were wondering; exactly how much does an EPL referee get paid these days?

Ahh – it’s Lee Mason again, you may remember him from the Everton match in which our captain, Cesc Fabregas, saw fit to ask how much he was paid to make the decisions he did – we won that 2-1 largely thanks to the great performance but also, in part, to the crowd watching the replay of the offside Everton goal on the big screen and, in unison, forming the learned (and some would say ‘correct’) opinion  that Lee was in fact “a wanker”.

Lee Mason has had 2 games for Blackpool consisting of 1 win, 0 draws and 1 loss

Blackpool are currently in 12th in Lee Mason’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 2 matches played), for matches in the EPL, with an average of 1.50 PPG.

In Lee Mason’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 2 matches played), for matches in the EPL, Blackpool come 10th with an average positive swing of 0.50.

Blackpool are currently in 24th in Lee Mason’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 2 matches played), for matches in the EPL, with an overall average of 2.50 BPM.

In Lee Mason’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 2 matches played), for matches in the EPL, Blackpool come 21st with an overall average of 5.40 FPB.

Lee Mason has had 6 games for Arsenal consisting of 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses

Arsenal are currently in 15th in Lee Mason’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 2 matches played), for matches in the EPL, with an average of 1.33 PPG.

In Lee Mason’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 2 matches played), for matches in the EPL, Arsenal come 12th with an average negative swing of -0.17.

Arsenal are currently in 27th in Lee Mason’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 2 matches played), for matches in the EPL, with an overall average of 2.83 BPM.

In Lee Mason’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 2 matches played), for matches in the EPL, Arsenal come 27th with an overall average of 3.59 FPB.

As you can see from the above graphs  – our stats under Lee Mason are pretty poor… but this is Blackpool and, under Iain Holloway, they are the kind of team who like to play football and will be looking to really enjoy this match.  I can see them getting a lot from Lee – but I doubt they will take it all i.e. they are not a bunch of cynical northern shit-kickers who will relish the opportunity to hoof us off the park.

Predictortron says 0-3 to Arsenal… with a low certainty percentile warning due to the lack of form data between the two teams.

Come on you reds!

30 comments to RefWatch – Blackpool v Arsenal (10/04/2011 13:30)

  • Mandy Dodd

    Breaking news – Jens to start, Almunia mysteriously taken ill. Does that affect your Predictortron?

  • DogFace

    I tried feeding Jens Lehmann into the predictortron but it kept returning “DOES NOT COMPUTE” – apparently he defies all logic.

  • Wrenny

    Yep, Jens will do that to computer equipment. Voids the warranty too.

    Lovely goals from Diaby and Eboue, I wonder how many fans were already ruing their inclusion in the team today.

  • walter

    Just shows that those who were calling for the heads of Diaby and Eboue (even after not playing for several weeks) it are those two who have given us victory today.

    And just what a difference a Cesc makes….

    The only negative is that we should have put the game out of reach before half time. But I think the Arsenal players didn’t want to go in with a 4-0 lead.

  • walter

    And from a ref point of view some really bizar dealings…. 8)

  • Wrenny

    Diaby was excellent, the only mark on his record is that he didn’t score two! The guy made 17 tackles today, and won 13.

  • Cosmojon

    @Walter
    What do you make of the Blackpool penalty claims?
    Or should I just wait for your report? :S

  • Rhys Jaggar

    You gonna say that Lee Mason was bunged to favour Arsenal today, Mr Broeckx?

    Because all the reports say he failed to give an absolutely stonewall penalty for Blackpool. Which would have had a material impact on the scoreline. The second time that has happened to Blackpool against top 4 opposition this season. You think they’ll sue for £50m if they get relegated by 3 pts, eh?

    You’re not an arbiter if you whinge when Arsenal get bad decisions but don’t hold your hand up when Arsenal get bad decisions the other way…….

    If the reason for bunging refs is to ensure ‘drama’ to the end of the season, you’d better say so.

    Because that points to fairly clear suspects with requisite motivations, doesn’t it?

    Those who question Diaby did so based on three appalling performances against Sunderland, Man Utd and Barcelona. Truly appalling. You’re saying one good performance against Blackpool expunges that. You’re entitled to your opinion. He needs quite a few more good ones to justify his place at Arsenal in my opinion…….which I’m justified to hold also……..

    I hope you’ll agree that Blackpool’s defensive record isn’t the best this season, hence judging Arsenal’s performance going forward against them is hardly a worthy leading indicator for playing Liverpool, Spurs, Bolton and Man Utd, most of whom know a bit more about defending……welcome though the win is.

    The test of your thesis is against tougher opponents I’m afraid.

    Every Arsenal fan will be delighted if you’re right.

    But many will see your statements as fairly immature……particularly as Spurs will probably need to beat Arsenal at the Lane to have a chance of 4th slot, Liverpool will need points to secure a Europa league spot for 6th as Everton and Bolton are hard on their heels, Bolton will be doing likewise and Utd will be fairly certain that avoiding defeat at the Emirates will secure them the title.

    Which says that Arsenal’s run in is against motivated opponents for the next four games.

    We’re about to find out whether these four games will be better than the four in March…….

    Aren’t we??

  • gooner80

    something very fishy about the Gk getting injured in warm up. The ref could have cruciified us and blackpool were robbed because mad Jens is such a crank he did a champions league final part2, then there was the other penalty and quite a few decions that went against them, we have been robbed so much this season I dont care.

    arsenal made life difficult for themselves, at least we are scoring again but we should have scored more, if blackpool would have played deeper they may have got a result but they played right into our hands, cesc was immense,i found it strange he was taken off, theo was a nice move and arshavin was the invisible man.

    7 wins and im sure man u will slip up somewhere else

  • gooner80

    BREAKIBNG NEWS silent stan taking over?????

  • Shard

    Rhys, you might wait for Walter to write his analysis before you release your prepared statement calling him unfair or biased or whatever.. Also, 1 game isn’t enough to say a player is good, but 3 games is enough to write off a player? Not very sound logic there.. For the rest, sure the future has challenges. But today, we have 3 points to be happy about.

  • Shard

    @gooner80

    Yeah, I read that too. With the reported impending board announcement, it seems ominous. I hope it’s not about a takeover. I really do. But I have an unpleasant feeling it is..

  • Mr Venger

    I find it difficult at the best of times to even finish reading Rhys’s usual diatribes, let alone bother with a coagent reply, however -I thnk maybe Rhys you should make a your judgement re refereeing decisions affecting the destination of the title over a number of games rather than 1 fair weather day. Yes Mason seemed innocent of any obvious bias today, but 10 points behind and many big games to play, and most of them under dubious pressure after the ‘lord mayors’ show. So as the Pgmob might say: Lets not start sucking eachothers cocks just yet.
    Re Diaby- I struggle to understand why people ( arsenal fans, let alone meathead opposition hatchet men)want to kill this guy. Why sell a potential world beater who just needs to get over his injury problems, and get fickles like you off his back. If your doubts are because he cant physically handle it , yes the jury is out on that one, but dont doubt this guys ability and potential. Btw he was excellent against barca , esp in the second half. And newcastle away was a materclass until the tackle (ahem) and sending off. Give credit where its due
    And why always the sarky tone when we lose!?

  • Mr Venger

    Or win !

  • Mandy Dodd

    Any chance of silent Stan getting Dein back in? Afterall Dein was sacked for trying to get Stan on board. So maybe Stan owes him.
    Hope it is not the sort of takeover that will put us hugely in debt?

  • gooner80

    i cant see the banks lending how they used to so maybe he will raise the money by selling some assets

  • Mandy Dodd

    Have just been reading on other blogs that he would need 75% owership to put in place a leveredged buyout, whereas if he gets the shares of LNB and Fiszman, takes him to 62%. So unless he gets hold of Usmanovs shares, we should be ok on that front…hopefully
    Apparently Stan has no real record of such buyouts – but stand to be corrected there.

  • gooner80

    could lead to the russian taking over

  • Shard

    I can’t remember what the rules are.. I used to know it in the days when a takeover seemed a real possibility (or threat).. If a person reaches 30%, he has to make on offer to all shareholders.. If he reaches 90%, then all remaining shareholders have to sell to him.. But there is another threshold at 70%, and I can’t remember what it’s for.. Anyone have any idea?

  • DogFace

    The preditortron gets 7/9 so far, although it fucked up on the scoreline for this game as it suggested that we were 3 goals better than Blackpool.

    🙂

    Mason was bizzare and was very close to losing control of the game at one stage… he would give us nothing in the tackle and then let us off the hook on the big calls.

    Looking forward to the Ref Review!

    Maybe this is all part of ‘the spectacle’ that he’s always banging on about.

  • Johnny Deigh

    I was watching online, which isn’t the best, but I thought Lehmann might have got a hand to the ball (replays show he didn’t) for their first penalty shout. However, as the ball fell to a Blackpool player with an empty net in front of him, playing on was not a bad decision, considering the referee may have had a doubt as to whether the keeper made contact with the ball or not.

    As to their second shout, the Blackpool player had already passed the ball before he was tackled. Awarding a penalty in that case would have been harsh, in my opinion.

  • RedGooner

    Rhy’s you really have no clue what so ever do you ?
    Walter promotes the idea of fair refereeing in all games.
    We dont want mistakes in any game as it would benefit us more than most other teams.
    We dont advocate the mistakes made today by the Ref but we will accept them “The same as we accepted them against Newcastle and all the others”
    You speak about Liverpool will be up for it because they need a Europa place Sp*rs because they want Top4 …..Well guess what we will be frikken up for it also because we want to something.

    You make it sound like we have no interest at all ….thats just pure rubish.

  • C4

    @ Rhys:
    Take some time to enjoy the win.

  • Gilles

    @Gooner80, If you are refering to Usmanov, he’s not Russian. He’s Uzbek. It doesnt’ matter much though.

  • Goonergerry

    The 75% rule is the one about having the authority to change the companies share structure. Gather the speculation about Dein re-joining the Board is “premature”.
    Kroenke has previously stated that he will not put the club in debt in order to buy them. His reputation in the US is that he’s a very straight operator.
    Echo the performance of Diaby- excellent and a potential great player. He has had poor performances this season- but when players come back from serious injuries- they usually do struggle initially.
    The win was very welcome- and Blackpool are a decent attacking side- yes we did have some luck.
    With a fair bit of luck with injuries- we might do better than some expect. Playing only once a week when your opponents are playing twice is a big advantage. For example when we play Man U they will have played Chelsea a further two times- and if they beat Chelsea in the CL they will play a CL semi just a few days before us.

  • A Casual Observer

    Dein will never return…

  • Rajan Valecha

    its a lil off topic.. actually i need Dogface to tell me if the way cristiano ronaldo stops before taking a penalty kick is legal or not?? is der a rule that says that during a run for penalty a player cant interrupt his run cuz i saw an arsenal video wid scenes from07-08 season and that vid mentioned the rule but i couldnt find it on the fifa rules.. help me please

  • Rajan Valecha

    @ Dogface: its offtopic but i want u to help me wid the penalty rules.. The way Cristiano ronaldo interrupts his run during a penalty legal?? I saw an arsenal video from 07-08 season showing d same incident and giving a ruling to support it..now m getting a stick from my utd frnds as they couldnt find the ruling in fifa’s rules… SAVE A GOONER
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQJTZSWf5AE&feature=player_embedded#at=206
    this is the video

  • walter

    Rajan,
    The rules about penalties have been changed recently. Now a player can interupt his run but not at the moment he is going to kick the ball. I think this was done because no one really cared anymore when a player interupted his run. Or better said: the refs didn’t act anymore so they changed the rule I think.

  • Rajan Valecha

    Walter thanx a lot sir… appreciate it 🙂