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Refwatch – Chelsea Vs. Arsenal (29/10/2011 – 12:45)



Untold Arsenal on Twitter @UntoldArsenal


By DogFace

  • Referee: Andre Marriner
  • Assistant 1: Scott Ledger
  • Assistant 2: Adam Watts
  • 4th Official: Howard Webb

Good morning stat-fans and welcome to RefWatch… apologies for the lack of RefWatch last EPL match day – we woz being repressed – but I did do one and not only was it astoundingly accurate – it was also really very witty.

So what do we have here then… another non-3pm game? I would say that this is the stand out fixture of the day with high exposure – so let’s hope it can work for us this time eh!? Anyone know what the odds are?

Tell you what – I’ll check… as it stands at the moment Asian Bookie tells me that Chelsea are giving one i.e. the Asian Handicap is 1 goal against Chelsea as the bookies at the moment reckon that’s how much better than us they are – this is a round ball game (no half or quater balls here) so it’s going to pull some money in!

Odds breakdown:

Buy Chelsea [to win by 2 or more] pays 2.05
Buy Arsenal [to draw or win] pays 1.85

If Chelsea win by one then all bets are refunded and nobody gets paid.

Let’s have a look at the Referee:

  • Full name: Andre Marriner
  • Date of birth: 01-Jan-1971 (Age 40)
  • Place of birth: Birmingham
  • Resides: West Midlands
  • EPL Referee Since: 2004/2005
  • EPL Games to date: 117

Andre Marriner
Vermaelen drives a Nissan Fiiiiiiggaro…

It’s Andre Marriner again… you remember him; he’s the one that gave Liverpool 8 minutes injury time to upset our title challenge last season… then another 3 minutes on top of that just to be sure.

Let’s check out his stats!

FPB = Fouls Per Booking (vertical axis)
BPM = Bookings Per Match(line width)
AHS = Asian Handicap Swing i.e. the deviation from the expected result(vertical axis)
PPG = Points Per Game(line width)
Therefore a high thin line for FPB/BPM would indicate a lot of fouls and very little bookings – and a low thin line for AHS/PPG would indicate an underperformance against the betting line and very few points taken.

Andre Marriner has had 11 games for Chelsea consisting of 6 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses.

Chelsea are currently in 3rd in Andre Marriner’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, with an average of 1.91 PPG.

In Andre Marriner’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, Chelsea come 6th with an average positive swing of 0.18.

Chelsea are currently in 5th in Andre Marriner’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, with an overall average of 1.55 BPM.

In Andre Marriner’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, Chelsea come 13th with an overall average of 6.53 FPB.

We can see from the blue line on graph (above) that Chelsea have done quite well, in terms of PPG, under Andre up until the 2010/2011 season the 2007/2008 season was a in AHS terms also an under performance but nothing like as bad as 2010/2011. The FPB/BPM stats are slightly curious also in that Chelsea’s opposition look to get away with more in the Challenge than Chelsea – look at the 2008/2009 season where they got away with around 20 FPB and were hardly booked at all.

The colour of the line represents the player type.
The position of the line against the vertical axis will indicate the average time of the booking and the thickness of the line indicates the average number of bookings of players in that position.
Therefore a high fat orange line would indicate that the referee often books the specified teams defence out of the challenge early, a low thin line or no line would indicate the opposite.  The number of minutes bottoms out at 100 to indicate no bookings.

Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Chelsea took their bookings under Andre Marriner – you can see Marriner is trending to earlier bookings throughout the defence, midfield and attack.

The colour of the line represents the player type.
The position of the line against the vertical axis will indicate the average time of the booking and the thickness of the line indicates the average number of bookings of players in that position.
Therefore a high fat orange line would indicate that the referee often books the specified teams defence out of the challenge early, a low thin line or no line would indicate the opposite.  The number of minutes bottoms out at 100 to indicate no bookings.

Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Chelsea’s opposition took their bookings under Andre Marriner – now this is interesting, if we look to the 2009/2010 season (Chelsea’s best season so far under Marriner) we can see that he booked a lot the opposition’s defenders in the first half – other than that the bookings against Chelsea’s opposition look very late in the game, look at the midfield [red] line, you can see that they all average out in the final 10 minutes of the game.

Let’s move on now and see how Arsenal get on with Andre.

FPB = Fouls Per Booking (vertical axis)
BPM = Bookings Per Match(line width)
AHS = Asian Handicap Swing i.e. the deviation from the expected result(vertical axis)
PPG = Points Per Game(line width)
Therefore a high thin line for FPB/BPM would indicate a lot of fouls and very little bookings – and a low thin line for AHS/PPG would indicate an underperformance against the betting line and very few points taken.

Andre Marriner has had 10 games for Arsenal consisting of 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses.

Arsenal are currently in 2nd in Andre Marriner’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, with an average of 2.00 PPG.

In Andre Marriner’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, Arsenal come 5th with an average positive swing of 0.25.

Arsenal are currently in 1st in Andre Marriner’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, with an overall average of 1.00 BPM.

In Andre Marriner’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, Arsenal come 1st with an overall average of 10.50 FPB.

Looking first at our performance in the above graph we can see that we have already played a game under Marriner this season and lost – that was the Blackburn away fixture. Other than that our AHS/PPG figures don’t look too bad, although we did show an underperformance in the 2009/2010 season. At a glance, our FPB/BPM figures also look ok – in that we get booked less and commit more fouls than our opposition.

The colour of the line represents the player type.
The position of the line against the vertical axis will indicate the average time of the booking and the thickness of the line indicates the average number of bookings of players in that position.
Therefore a high fat orange line would indicate that the referee often books the specified teams defence out of the challenge early, a low thin line or no line would indicate the opposite.  The number of minutes bottoms out at 100 to indicate no bookings.

Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Arsenal took their bookings under Andre Marriner. We can see that recently we are trending to later bookings under Andre Marriner and curiously he seems to have developed a thing for booking substitutes under the last two seasons.

The colour of the line represents the player type.
The position of the line against the vertical axis will indicate the average time of the booking and the thickness of the line indicates the average number of bookings of players in that position.
Therefore a high fat orange line would indicate that the referee often books the specified teams defence out of the challenge early, a low thin line or no line would indicate the opposite.  The number of minutes bottoms out at 100 to indicate no bookings.

Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Arsenal’s opposition took their bookings under Andre Marriner. OK, we can see just how many more booking’s our opposition have taken under Marriner, there have been fat lines through the midfield and defence which were trending more and earlier until this season where they take a dive… and there’s that curious substitute booking thing again?

Let’s move on now to check out how Andre Marriner performs against selected teams in the EPL:

The ine thickness represents the average Points Per Game and the position of the line against the vertical axis represents the average swing againd the handicap.

The stand out performers under Marriner are Manchester United – the zero point in 2007/2008 exists only because he had no games for them that season.

The Predictortron gives Chelsea a 0.383333 of a goal advantage… so hopefully we can come away from this with something.


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41 comments to Refwatch – Chelsea Vs. Arsenal (29/10/2011 – 12:45)

  • Sammy The Snake

    Something from this game would be nice!

  • In terms of recent matches played in the league Chelsea have won 3 and lost two of the last five and Arsenal have exactly the same record.

    So maybe….

  • Moysifen

    I think today game is cumbersome for the two club. Currently the arsenal player Venpersi come to the apex of his quality. In addition to vanpersi, Garvinhio also a good communication with the team player. And all the player will be a good mental capacity to win the game and they are found in a good performance. Due to the above reason, In my point of view arsenal will be won Chelsea 3-1. Van score at least 2 goal in this game.

    God luck for Arsenal.

  • Mahdain

    mhh…looks like we have odds stuck against us in a big match…AGAIN we got webb in a game that shall not be named,mike dean in the derby and now this guy against chelsea? lets hope we get something out of this game

  • It’s a tough call odds wise – put your punter hat on and put your bookie hat on… I would say a draw would be the most profitable if we factor in the European fixed odds betting. We’ll see how it plays out on the field.

  • meditaion

    what if arsenal win 5-1?

  • Then we all have a party! I’m not sure what the over/under 5 ball odds are – but I doubt that there will be much money on a high scoring game.

  • The AH has shifted to 3/4 ball… some late movement on this game – I smell something fishy!

  • jbh

    The “Northern” and particular “Manchester” bias would lead I suspect to the best result as an Arsenal win if they are totally discounting Arsenal for the title. But as they are keen on Liverpool for 4th place the ideal result for the Northern bias would be a draw.

  • walter

    jbh that was on the cards until Terry slipped… I’m not doing the review so have my hands free but I noticed the ref giving it all to Chelsea the longer the game went on. The 3-3 was well an fine example on how a not given foul can have a major influence on a game.

    IN YOUR FACE!!!! What a game, what a performance…

    I think the one man team will be on the agenda after this… who cares 🙂 🙂 🙂

  • bjtgooner

    Final score 3 – 5. Brilliant win for the Arsenal!!!

  • Mandy Dodd

    JT at fault as well, does not get much better!

  • Rodelero

    No doubt that Szczesny got away with murder – but then again, Marriner seemed to have a constant light but lingering biased. So many soft decisions against us, so few against them.

  • walter

    OOOOOOOHHHHH ARSENAL WE LOVE YOU!!!

    I must say that even when we were behind on the scoreboard I still felt a strange confident feeling that we just would win it.
    The only thing that disturbed this feeling was the way Marinner was trying gently to disturb the balance.

    But the way we were fighting was just amazing. I think the whole team was really committed, focused and even the mistakes we made didn’t seem to affect the way we played and wanted to play.

    We battled and fought like a real team.

    OH TO BE A GOONER!!!

  • Anne

    @Meditation:

    Not too far off. You got the Arsenal score right. 🙂

  • LRV

    Wenger’s point is ‘Arsenely’ proved by the Arsenal boys. Don’t you think? Oh… I’ll have more of that.

  • Anne

    @DogFace:

    How does this final score tally with the late movements that you noticed earlier?

  • Topovacha

    I will wait for ref review article, but I think that Mariner was right about giving only yellow to Wojciech. He wasn’t last man in defense and it wasn’t real goal scoring opportunity…hovewer, I was scared like a little girl after his start, never been curious about the colors as Mariner did put his hand in the pocket waiting for the card 🙂

    Anyway, Chelsea scored after they committed clear foul. So, we can tell we are even.

    Great great game. Not only that we won scoring 5 on the shitty bridge but it was real pleasure to watch clean total football.

    I need pint or two to calm a bit and continue to celebrate. 🙂

  • Gord

    @ Rodelero

    I was only reading the BBC play by play stuff. What was up with that yellow card that Szczesny got? Did A$hley Cole antagonize him first?

  • WalterBroeckx

    Cheers Topovacha… enjoy the drinks and celebration… 🙂

  • Mahdain

    hahaha in your face media..if this what crisis is all about then i love it..see how they try to undermine it by calling us a one man team but who cares??? oh to be a gooner!!!!

  • Mahdain

    so what will the AAA say about this? arent they the geniuses who wanted wenger out? hahaha take that AAA…in your faces…i love Arsenal…i reaaly do 😀

  • Kentetsu

    Great game. Towards the end it seemed Chelsea could get away with anything, while at the same time getting free kicks for fouls that were not there. And for a few minutes after the Mata goal, Arsenal seemed to misplace many passes. But once RVP scored the 4-3, the passing play was back and Arsenal dominated the game again like they had been for most of the match. A deserved win.

  • @Anne – it put more money on Chelsea I would say, there was a lot of late movement on Arsenal so it was hedging the smart money against the mugs.

  • Woolwich Peripatetic

    I’m going to predict the AAA will spin this as Chelsea in crisis, focus on Santos having a poor game going backwards and Ealcott only getting one goal. The other thing is they might point out that if you play well enough the ref has to go too far to affect the outcome for referee bias to matter.
    Personally, I’m annoyed we conceded three but Chelsea are a very good attacking side afterall.

  • Johnny Deigh

    Sturridge could have punished us but was wasteful. Happy Drogba was suspended because he would have made the match much more difficult for us.
    But hey, we were without Song and Gervinho for 3 premier league matches.

  • Gooner Gal

    I didn’t think the ref had a good game really.

    I think I saw a tackle from behind, but I am not sure who it was on and I think it was Gervinho brought down by the last defender, early in the second half. Also there was about a 20 minute period where the ref blew for every free kick in Chelsea’s favour but ignored their fouls on us.

    Lastly I don’t think RVP or Ivanovic should of got yellow cards, they should of instead been given a warning and some serious words to calm down.

    I look forward to reading the ref review on this one.

  • Arun

    C-H-3-L-5-E-A

  • Arun

    C-H-3-L-5-E-A :):):):):)

  • dan

    I like to see ref watch atleast 6 fouls in the 2nd half not given and extra minute on added time.

  • dan

    2 things we’ve learned this week manu and chelsea have no midfield, Torres showed his defensive skills today 50mil makes Andy(crap)Caroll look like a great signing.

  • Mediation – would you like to write a prediction column for Untold? Quite extraordinary. (Phil your job is safe – I am not looking to replace you, despite your 1-1 prediction which was just a little bit out.

  • BILL FROM MANHATTAN

    IMPORTANT WIN.TEAM SHOWED A LOT OF CHARACTER. THE LATE GREAT COLLEGE BASKETBALL COACH JOHN WOODEN DEFINED CHARACTER AS BEING AT YOUR BEST WHEN YOUR BEST IS REALLY NEEDED. TODAY THE ARSENAL SHOWED WHAT THEY ARE MADE OF. ALL THE AAA AND MEDIA WHO WERE SCREAMING GLOOM, DOOM, AND RELEGATION SHOULD SHUT THE HELL UP. THE CREAM ALWAYS RISES TO THE TOP. OUR FEARLESS LEADER KNOWS THIS. THE XENOPHOBIC BRITSH MEDIA WONT ADMIT THIS, BUT IF WENGER WAS FROM THEIR SHORES, THEY WOULD BE ERECTING STATUES OF HIM AND CLAMORING FOR HIM TO BE THE NATIONAL TEAM MANAGER FOR LIFE. THERE’S ONLY ONE ARSENE WENGER

  • Phil

    Tony my prediction form has dipped considerably recently, though I suspect I wasn’t the only one thrown off by this result!

  • bob

    Topovacha, All
    Regarding Szez’s yellow card (instead of red card), I’m glad you then pointed out that “Anyway, Chelsea scored after they committed clear foul. So, we can tell we are even.” So far, I’ve been searching for any media coverage that mentions Chelski (blatantly) fouling against our man only moments before Mata’s goal. So far I can’t find that mentioned. So far, it seems a nice big “hole” in the coverupage. If anyone spots mention of that non-call – the uncalled foul – please mention it. In that silence lurks the concealed (for now) bias – media and ref – that abides against us. Up with Riley’s breakfast! Go Gunners!

  • bob

    Walter, Refs, Ref Reviewer to be,
    Arsenal TV’s two online presenters were screaming about the blatancy of the foul against us before Mata’s strike. That non-call – if it’s as clear from your POV as it was from the presenters – could well be a major exhibit in ref Marriner’s failed attempt to achieve a draw. Do you see it as a blatant non-call? Beyond this one call, do you see a pattern in the last half-hour say, to indicate that Marriner either trying for a draw or having us lose?

  • Red Jessie

    Judging by the TV highlights he got two big decisions wrong. Our keeper should have gone and their third goal should never have stood. At this level, referees should not be getting any big decisions wrong. I wager that whoever referees Tuesday’s game will be a far more competent referee whoo will make far fewer errors. Apart from Clattenburg, it is hard to find a premier league referee who is of a consistently high standard.

  • bob

    Red Jessie,
    But consistently inconsistent or consistently (if/when demonstrated) biased may well be THE standard that must be achieved to be one of Riley’s EPL 17(or whatever the number is)…

  • El Gringo

    I was watching the match on ESPN in the States. There were two commentators, Steve MacNanaman and (I think) Adrian Healey. At first, McNanaman mentioned the foul but pretended it was not a foul–it was a pathetic effort, something like, “he never fouled him, just sort of eased him out of the way.” But Healey (who was much more fair and sensible than MacNanaman throughout the match) called it a foul and over the course of about five minutes had MacNanaman admitting it as such. It was an interesting moment. I can’t stand MacNanaman, who’s a fool and who obviously does not like Arsenal, but once confronted with a sensible argument, had to begrudgingly call a spade a spade. I wonder if the voice in his earpiece gave him permission…

  • Graham

    Maybe Szczcz…. should have gone, but Ivanovic went unpenalised altoghether for the elbow in RVP’s neck. If he did that on the street he would face a jail ter.m

  • bob

    El Gringo,
    Great observation on MacNanaman in the ESPN dynamic duo. And speaking of earpieces, I’m just musing over whether Howard Webb might have been whispering “sweet nothings” in Marriner’s earpiece in an on-site live tutorial on how to try and micromanage the last 30 minutes and produce anything but an Arsenal victory. Just musing, mind you…