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RefWatch – Arsenal Vs Queens Park Rangers (31/12/2011 – 15:00)



Untold Arsenal on Twitter @UntoldArsenal


By DogFace

  • Referee: Martin Atkinson
  • Assistant 1: Simon Beck
  • Assistant 2: Stephen Child
  • 4th Official: Lee Mason

Good morning stat-fans and welcome to RefWatch…

Another quick one today – but all stats are there. You may notice that on the Ref Vs Team the season starts later than the booking index chart. This is because I don’t have data going back for the betting line for QPR past last season. This is because they were a lower league side BUT with our new data we do have full booking info for Martin Atkinson and QPR going back a few seasons.

Oh look – Stephen Child is a lino, I bet someone mentions him in the comments… and Lee Mason too – you remember them?!

Asian Handicap (betting line) market:

Home Handicap Away
2.075 0 – 1 3/4 1.825

I’m not sure I like being the long odds there but I would tend to agree with the market makers here – although I would have set the betting line at 1/2 ball.

The Under/Over market:

Over Handicap Under
1.950 3 1.950

Let’s have a look at the Referee:

  • Full name: Martin Atkinson
  • Date of birth: 31-Mar-1971 (Age 40)
  • Place of birth: Bradford
  • Resides: West Yorkshire
  • EPL/ECH Referee Since: 2003/2004
  • EPL/ECH Games to date: 214

Martin Atkinson
Quiet… I can’t hear my radio.

It’s Martin Atkinson again… you remember him:

Let’s check out his stats!

FPB = Fouls Per Booking (vertical axis)
BPM = Bookings Per Match(line width)
AHS = Asian Handicap Swing i.e. the deviation from the expected result(vertical axis)
PPG = Points Per Game(line width)
Therefore a high thin line for FPB/BPM would indicate a lot of fouls and very little bookings – and a low thin line for AHS/PPG would indicate an underperformance against the betting line and very few points taken.

Martin Atkinson has had 16 games for Arsenal consisting of 8 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses.

Arsenal are currently in 5th in Martin Atkinson’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an average of 1.81 PPG.

In Martin Atkinson’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Arsenal come 5th with an average positive swing of 0.23.

Arsenal are currently in 18th in Martin Atkinson’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an overall average of 1.88 BPM.

In Martin Atkinson’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Arsenal come 24th with an overall average of 5.70 FPB.

As you can see from the graph above – our performance has been on a negative trend for some time under Atkinson and has crashed this season to zero PPG and around -2 on the handicap.

The colour of the line represents the player type.
The position of the line against the vertical axis will indicate the average time of the booking and the thickness of the line indicates the average number of bookings of players in that position.
Therefore a high fat orange line would indicate that the referee often books the specified teams defence out of the challenge early, a low thin line or no line would indicate the opposite.  The number of minutes bottoms out at 100 to indicate no bookings.

Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Arsenal took all their bookings under Martin Atkinson.

The colour of the line represents the player type.
The position of the line against the vertical axis will indicate the average time of the booking and the thickness of the line indicates the average number of bookings of players in that position.
Therefore a high fat orange line would indicate that the referee often books the specified teams defence out of the challenge early, a low thin line or no line would indicate the opposite.  The number of minutes bottoms out at 100 to indicate no bookings.

Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Arsenal’s opposition took all their bookings under Martin Atkinson.

FPB = Fouls Per Booking (vertical axis)
BPM = Bookings Per Match(line width)
AHS = Asian Handicap Swing i.e. the deviation from the expected result(vertical axis)
PPG = Points Per Game(line width)
Therefore a high thin line for FPB/BPM would indicate a lot of fouls and very little bookings – and a low thin line for AHS/PPG would indicate an underperformance against the betting line and very few points taken.

Martin Atkinson has had 8 games for Queens Park Rangers consisting of 1 win, 2 draws and 5 losses.

Queens Park Rangers are currently in 27th in Martin Atkinson’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an average of 0.63 PPG.

Queens Park Rangers are currently in 1st in Martin Atkinson’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an overall average of 1.00 BPM.

In Martin Atkinson’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Queens Park Rangers come 2nd with an overall average of 10.50 FPB.

The main thing that sticks out is that QPR have never taken many bookings under Atkinson – in fact, if you look at the graphs below, you can see that this have been consistent for 3 seasons. QPR don’t appear to have done very well this season under Atkinson, especially when compared with previous seasons; but this is not a complete surprise as they are a newly promoted team.

The colour of the line represents the player type.
The position of the line against the vertical axis will indicate the average time of the booking and the thickness of the line indicates the average number of bookings of players in that position.
Therefore a high fat orange line would indicate that the referee often books the specified teams defence out of the challenge early, a low thin line or no line would indicate the opposite.  The number of minutes bottoms out at 100 to indicate no bookings.

Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Queens Park Rangers took all their bookings under Martin Atkinson.

The colour of the line represents the player type.
The position of the line against the vertical axis will indicate the average time of the booking and the thickness of the line indicates the average number of bookings of players in that position.
Therefore a high fat orange line would indicate that the referee often books the specified teams defence out of the challenge early, a low thin line or no line would indicate the opposite.  The number of minutes bottoms out at 100 to indicate no bookings.

Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Queens Park Rangers’s opposition took all their bookings under Martin Atkinson.

Let’s move on now to check out how Martin Atkinson performs against selected teams in the EPL:

The ine thickness represents the average Points Per Game and the position of the line against the vertical axis represents the average swing againd the handicap.

The stand out performers under Martin Atkinson are Chelsea – but we can see that now Manchester City are doing rather well too. Arsenal are crashing and this is a worry in particular if we consider Chelsea’s seasonal objectives for the season and their current position in the league.

The Predictortron gives Arsenal a 0.589285 of a goal advantage and I tend to agree – I have a dodgy feeling about this one despite the fact that it’s a 3pm kickoff and will attract relatively low exposure. The crowd really need to do their bit in this game and keep the pressure on the officials to get it right as I really couldn’t face another match like the Stuart Attwell game.

Which reminds me – if you wish to increase the exposure on this match [and market motive for corruption on our fair sport]; then why not slowly destroy the game you love and support this site by placing your bets here.


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45 comments to RefWatch – Arsenal Vs Queens Park Rangers (31/12/2011 – 15:00)

  • Mahdain

    mhh even before i read this refwatch i knew we are up against it and now after reading this cant say it has lifted my spirits anyway… i really do hope atkinson doesnt turn up with his blues specs on as im afraid it will mean another shambolic display and i really do hope he doesnt let that thug baron get away with what he does best

  • walter

    If I may add a bit to this and maybe this could be something we can add in the future (but then maybe it gets too long) a bit about our findings in the refs reviews:

    Overall decisions around 75%
    Weight Score around 72%
    Important decisions around 61%

    And that all put together gives him an average score of 69%.

    Look at how low the important decisions are compared to the rest. This could mean that he for example refuses to give blatant penalties at times, or gives wrong penalties. Also could indicate that the allows wrong goals to stand or disallows valid goals.

    But he sure is “one of us” and to understand this you must stay tuned at Untold in the next days.

  • dan

    I’m sure this chap is a crackhead!!!

  • bjtgooner

    No doubt Barton will be licking his chops at the thought of another poor ref and will be trying to get one of our guys sent off – again! We must keep cool – whatever the provocation – and sicken the little git by knocking the goals in!

  • dan

    OMG Ian Wright’s at it again, does this Muppet ever shut up? Seriously I’m considering shutting his hole up for him. As of right now this clown (Ian Wright) is on my shit list, thinking about it I’m sure he hates Wenger because when Wenger arrived it was pretty much the end of Wrighty.

  • Mahdain

    off topic but dont u guys find it hilarious that united got the unholy trinity to ref their matches back to back to back?dowd vs wigan,dean today and webb vs newcastle.. easy 9 points for them..3 already in the bag and another 3 to follow today….good job riley fergie will be proud

  • Mahdain

    goodness me somebody pinch me…did mike dean just give a penalty against united at old trafford? wow unbelieveable

  • Mandy Dodd

    Just seen that Mahdain, but Utds fans should not worry, this ref will even things up for them….and then some
    Or an alternative explanation, he wants to help his favoured team, the Spuds catch Utd?

  • Mahdain

    @mandy perhaps but i think he will even things out in the 2nd half…it is fergie’s birthday afterall

  • bjtgooner

    Dean will get a phone call at half time!

  • Mahdain

    blackburn got a second goal but stupid defending led to united getting one just a minute later…lucky lucky united

  • Mahdain

    dear or dear mike dean has a lot of explaining to do…looks like riley forgot to slip dean the cheque…well done to blackburn and definitely KEAN IN…lol 😛

  • bob

    Dogface,
    Thank you for pointing out who are the linos and making them part of the RefWatch. Pray that they do not prey upon us as per your link back into the memory hole. (As the kids say, oh my god!) Cheers for noting the dastardly duo.

  • Johnny Deigh

    I don’t like the way Atkinson has been reffing this match for the first 20 minutes… fouls on Arsenal defenders not given, Arshavin being elbowed in the face not given as a foul.

  • Mahdain

    atkinson already acting like a complete tool…blatant handball there

  • Johnny Deigh

    This match looks like it may be corrupted.

  • Marcus

    Same shit – different season

    I’ll rephrase that

    Same Shit system, shit refereeing, shit corruption, shit ANti-Arsenal FA hierarchy – different season

    Vermaelen yellowed lol….imagine if the EPL refereeing was consistent…Man U would literally lose 4 players per mildly controversial incident, and about 8 players every game would need to be sent off…

    If you had a computer game with a glitch that meant you could never win, would you play it?

    For the same reason I find it increasingly hard to follow football…and Arsenal

  • Johnny Deigh

    Bothroyd and Barton should have been sent off and their players were making lots of tackles like the one for which Djourou got booked without any punishment. Two handballs in the area not given. What a dereliction of duty by this P.O.S.

  • WalterBroeckx

    Must see in my rule book if the rules have been changed and that they added somewhere: handball is not allowed unless you are playing against Arsenal.

    And the yellow for Vermaelen and I thought it was Koscielny who made the tackle (he got the ball) and not Vermaelen. So a blatant mistake from the ref. Once again, once more…

  • Marcus

    Oh well, it won’t be fun and games when Interpol come calling

  • Marcus

    I thought the manager of AZ Alkamaar showed admirable integrity the other night. It’s easy to say “I’d do that”, but with thousands of supporters and a whole system on top of you, it takes mental strength…

    but the truth is, Arsenal really need to walk off the pitch at some point

  • WalterBroeckx

    Massive win and some great results!!!
    Best wishes for the new year

  • MK

    one nil to the arsenal.. one nil..

    Shame VP didn’t score a couple more at least one of those was a pen.. if you have your arms up and block a cross/shot it should be one.. if the refs were being honest.

    but hey 4th place.. great other results for us… happy new year!

  • Mahdain

    what a great day for arsenal…chelsea lost,spuds drew and ofcourse united also lost…happy new year..from Arsenal with love 🙂

  • Mahdain

    have to say…atkinson as expected was complete shambles….clearly had his blues glasses on…too bad villa ruined the party for him

  • Mahdain

    and once again a big middle finger to the media twats who said we would battle relegation…4th bitches

  • bjtgooner

    The best answer to the collective scum of Atkinson, Barton etc was the three points – good win for the Arsenal!!

    One nil to the Arsenal, where have we heard that before?

    Well done guys!

  • Seeing report on The Telegraph twitter feed that Vermaelen is out of two weeks with calf strain and that Wenger will consider the left-back options. By Jove!

  • Johnny Deigh

    Anyone else bothered that the referee in the match today was wearing a an endorsement logo handsomely paid for by the owner of the opposing club?

  • bjtgooner

    @Johnny Deigh

    PGMOL is sponsored by the owners of QPR! Incestuous??

    In answer to your question – I find the logo worn by Atkinson just as disturbing as his refereeing.

  • Johnny Deigh

    Maybe we can convince Kroenke to give Pa Riley 10 Million pounds to put Walmart advertising on the ref’s shirts to see if we get better treatment from his refs, and then include a renewal bonus agreement if the refereeing situation does improve.
    Of course I don’t want preferential treatment, I just want an even playing field.

  • Mahdain

    as days go the FA and PGMOL continue to make a mick out of themselves..seriously how are these shit referees continuing to do games?…deliberately allowing handballs is one thing but booking the wrong player? what a joke

  • Mandy Dodd

    A good result, an even better day but a disgraceful ref. A couple clear handballs, ignoring a player being elbowed in the face (hope the FA look at that, as they would if say Song had done it), and booking a wrong player. Look forward to the ref review, but he gave us nothing, some fairly serious QPR fouling went unpunished time after time. Well, screw you Atkinson because guess what, your boys lost today, and we now sit above them in the top 4.
    A real shame Vermaelen will be out a few weeks, reports that Wenger will now look at LBs for loan. Is it true we can only loan 1 EPL player? If this is so, we have Benny already so I guess this would rule out Wayne Bridge?

    But all in all, the year ends happily for the Gooners, and all who have backed them through dark days. 4th is not the limit of anyones ambitions, but considering the events of the last year, the players we have lost, injuries to key players, 4th in Jan is a very good start.
    Onwards and upwards for 2012!

  • Gord

    Blackburn gave SAF a wonderful 70th birthday present. The Racing Post had them at 28:1 to beat ManU.

    http://www.racingpost.com/news/sport/28-1-blackburn-cause-biggest-shock-in-premier-league-history/970209/

    It sure would be nice to get some defenders back from sick leave, we didn’t need to lose Vermaelen for a couple of weeks. Frimpong is off to bounce a few people with Wolves for the rest of the year. I wish him well.

  • Gooner Gal

    Supporting Arsenal in 2011 has been emotional, with the most prevailing one being anger if the truth be told, due to a lot of injustice. That said, I have enjoyed supporting Arsenal so much, I would never contemplate getting off the rollercoaster ride. There have been some serious highs and lows this year and I am so glad that we have ended the year back in the top four.

    I was annoyed that we threw away a great opportunity against Wolves, but events elsewhere today in the league, show’s that anything can happen and all is not lost. This year Arsenal have been slated more than usual, but have also left critic’s dumbfounded more than ever before. This season Arsenal really have defied the odds.

    Arsene Wenger is a very special asset to the club and Robin Van Persie as a genuine Gooner, has brought respect back to the captaincy position. We have gone from near bottom to near top in a short time, whilst managing the ‘usual’ serious injury crisis situation. All the players, even some of the less popular ones deserve credit for getting us to where we are now.

    1-0 to the Arsenal, back near the top challenging for the league, still in the CL – what a great way to go into 2012.

    Business as usual.

  • Gord

    @ Johnny Deigh, bjtgooner

    The PGMOL sponsorship goes back to 20070802.

    http://mobile.premierleague.com/staticFiles/ca/67/0,,12306~92106,00.pdf

  • Not only that Gord – it goes back to the Thai black markets and the fit and proper person that is Thaksin Shinawatra… oh and Manchester City of course.

    😉

  • Johnny Deigh

    The first thing is that the referee group should never have accepted money from a 3rd party. Second, the Premiership never should have let Tony Fernandes take control of QPR when he was paying money to the ref group for putting his logo on their shirts.

    It’s really strange how bad the refereeing was in the first half. Not sure if it would have been as bad in the second half if there had been more controversial incidents. It makes you wonder if there isn’t something fishy going on with goal markets, halftime betting or whatever. It just doesn’t seem right.

  • novicegooner

    @ Dogface

    congratulations again! The Predictortron has done it again. I’m now tempted to go into betting world lol

    on the match
    I think it’s time for Ref Atkinson to retire. He didn’t show his capacity to rule the game fairly and strength to control the players, well, mostly QPR players. One example was when he gave yellow card to Luke Young. Young just walked away and didn’t bother to look at the ref’s face, and the ref himself allowed that to happen. He should’ve called Young to come to him, look at him, lecture him and then card him.

    Taarabt should at least get a yellow for his elbow on Andrei and Barton a second yellow for his arm on Mikel. This Barton guy makes me feel very very sick with all his behaviors on the pitch.

    We had a good penalty should vs City, Fulham and now QPR and NONE of them were given. That’s THREE for christ’s sake!

    on Walcott
    I think he is still depending too much on his pace. That’s why when he’s not fully fit, he looked really really bad. He must learn how to use his brain more from The King Henry.

    on Coquelin
    He looks good at LB position, but we still need a natural player in that position.

  • DaVinci

    Credit to 7am kickoff for a frame by frame analysis of some of the fouls and missed calls. Follow this link and compare with the analysis on this ref watch:
    http://www.7amkickoff.com/2011/arsenal-1-0-qpr-by-the-pictures/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+7amkickoff+%287amkickoff%29

  • FinnGun

    Blind, biased and/or bought. Video tech now!

  • pete

    For a team who’s emphasis is now on the wide players we really do have shit wingers, Walcott was awful, Arshavin made good with his pass but he was also awful and Gervinho was Gervinho.

    I have a soft spot for QPR, my girlfriend and her mum have season tickets, I feel a bit embarrassed tonight as thought they deserved more even though we are supposed to be superior, still, a win is a win, we sneak into 4th as Chelsea are even more shit and with United losing and Spurs drawing it turned into a good day even if we are slow, predictable, one dimensional and a bit shit.

  • Hi Guys I’m perturbed with these penalty issues and i want to ask a question and i need answers”?? WHEN IS A PENALTY GIVEN??

  • Johnny Deigh

    @kampala gun – generally the rule of thumb is when you are the home side and playing at Old Trafford.

  • Johnny Deigh

    Another thing to consider by Arsenal being denied penalties in the past few matches is that Alan Shearer’s record for goals scored in a season remains intact. Robin, being our penalty taker probably would have broken the record had he had a few extra spot kicks to round out the season.