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Are we going to score 100 goals this season?

By Walter Broeckx

After the month September I gave a first review and one of our readers said then that he was way too early with this and we had to wait after we would have played some 10 games. The international break is a good moment to see how we have developed until now.

So, the competition is now 11 weeks old (and for most of the teams that means 12 games).   Our missing game is against Bolton, pulled because we had to play Celtic in some game or other.

And thus it is time for the next overview. Are we still doing better than last year or not? The best way to keep up the comparison is to see at the games from last year and same games this season.

As I already reviewed the first 6 games I will only mention the scores.

Last season                                   This season

Everton – Arsenal 1-1       Everton – Arsenal 1-6

Arsenal Portsmouth 1-0          Arsenal Portsmouth 4-1

Mu – Arsenal 0-0            Mu – Arsenal 2-1

M City – Arsenal 3-0       M City – Arsenal 4-2

Arsenal – Wigan 1-0           Arsenal – Wigan 4-0

Fulham – Arsenal 1-0       Fulham – Arsenal 0-1

On came Blackburn to the Emirates and we gave them a good trashing and won 6-2. Last year we beat them 4-0 so the same goal difference and also a good performance.

Next was Birmingham to play in the Emirates. Now Birmingham didn’t play in the PL last season so I think the best way to compare them could be done with a team we will not play this year, so I took the first game we played at home against a team that went down at the end of the season and this was West Bromwich Albion.

In fact our first game of the season. Last year we won 1-0, scored early on but couldn’t make the game over until the final whistle. This year we won against Birmingham 3-1 in a rather more convincing way.

For the next game we went to West Ham and we drew 2-2. Last year we won 2-0. So the result this year not so good. Still wonder how we conceded 2 goals with no other shots between the posts, but life is not always logical.

On came the nightmare of last season….the spuds. Last year 4-4 draw, much to the delight of the DVD shop at White Hart Lane and this year we let them know who is THE team in North London and send them back with a 3-0 in their bag. So a better result than last year.   There are still a few mugs left available in the Tiny Tott Shop.

Last weekend we went to Wolverhampton and as newcomers I also had to pick a relegated team from last season. The first away game against such a team was Middlesbrough and we drew 1-1 over there. This year we won rather simple with 4-1.

So over to the conclusions:

Last season we had a total of 19 points after these games out of a possible 33 points and this season we have got 25 points in these games. That is a gain of 6 some points.

Our goal scoring has improved immensely as we scored 36 goals this year and we had only made 15 goals last year. That is more than the double. If we could maintain this scoring form for the rest of the season we could be well over 100 goals, in fact if you extrapolate it with your calculator it will give you 124 goals. Would be nice but I will settle for any number containing 3 figures.

Last year, we let only 10 goals in and now 14 goals this year so this is not so good.

Regarding the performances on the field, which of course is subjective, they are far, far, far better than last season.

So I think there is even some more cause for optimism so far.  But just how exciting are Arsenal. Here is the table…

In what follows here is the number of goals scored and number of goals scored per game.  It doesn’t include monday night’s game.

Arsenal 50 4.5
Liverpool 41 3.7
Blackburn 39 3.6
Bolton 39 3.6
Tottenham 40 3.3
Burnley 40 3.3
Sunderland 39 3.25
Chelsea 37 3.1
West Ham 36 3
League average 702 3
Everton 32 2.9
Hull 35 2.9
Man Utd 35 2.9
Wigan 35 2.9
Wolves 34 2.8
Aston Villa 32 2.7
Fulham 28 2.6
Portsmouth 28 2.3
Stoke 27 2.25
Man City 35 2.2
Birmingham 20 1.8

(Figures taken from the Guardian)

So Arsenal are one and a half times more exciting than the average for the League.

Not only are we going to go through the 100 goal barrier we are going to score 124 in the league.

Impossible? Of course.  Just as impossible as having an Unbeaten Season.  Just as impossible as winning two doubles.  Just as impossible as 49 unbeaten.   Completely impossible.

Here’s something else that is impossible. Winston Churchill and MI5 involved in the activities revolving around the Arsenal.  But read MAKING THE ARSENAL and you will find out that sometimes the impossible happens.

Full details on www.woolwicharsenal.co.uk – available for purchase now.  If you don’t read this by Christmas you are going to be so out of the debate!!!

22 comments to Are we going to score 100 goals this season?

  • waah, thx 4 that analysis which i think i do agree with not because am an arsenal fanatic but simply being rational and objective. Am as well worried of the unfortunate goals that arsenal keeps conceding especially in the latr minutes of the game but who prof. Wenger will try to seriously advise them. SOLOMON, UGANDA

  • Diaminedave

    To continue your thoughts on how well Arsenal are doing I read somewhere that as one of the ‘top’ clubs we have done really well against the so called lesser clubs averaging 2.44 points per game this season – the same as chelsea and equal top.
    Thanks for the round up and stats
    all the best Dave

  • Tim

    “In what follows here is the number of goals scored and number of goals scored per game. It doesn’t include monday night’s game.”

    Those numbers are wrong. If they are total goals, Arsenal have scored 55 in 19 and are on average of 2.89. In the league, Arsenal have scored 36 in 11.

    I believe that this team can score 100 this season, which will beat the record set by United (97) in the Premier League. In fact, I coined the term “Centurions” back on October 16th.

    http://www.7amkickoff.com/2009/arsenal-v-birmingham-match-preview/

  • And let that be a lesson to all of you.

    Never nick something from a newspaper – even if you give them accreditation.

    Tony

  • Aaditya

    Walter means the number of goals in a game: Arsenal have scored 36 and conceded 14 in 11 games; that’s 50 in 11 which does equal 4.5(or thereabouts) goals/game

  • Paul C.

    Walter – I dont believe that you can directly compare results against team to team from one year to the next. Results change, one year we do the double over Utd and finish way off the pace, the next year we draw and lose against Utd and almost win the championship.

    I believe a much better way is simply to say “after 11 games last season we had…..” and “after 11 games this season we have….” and to look at the quality of opponents and the quality of play.

    By that measure, after 11 games last year we had 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses. Our losses were Fulham(a), Hull(h) and Stoke(a). We hadnt really played anyone of any quality except Spurs at home, against whom we had drawn. We had scored 23 goals (not bad) and conceded 12 (about the same as this year).

    Obviously the start we have had this year is far, far better especially considering that we have gotten rid of three of our toughest away games (Utd, City and Everton).

    The next 8 games are massive. Last year in games 12-19 we won 3, drew 3 and lost 2. That was the period that effectively knocked us out of the title race. By the time the New Year dawned we were miles off the pace and in 5th place, looking closer to 6th than to 4th or above.

    Lets see how these next 8 go, starting with Sunderland away…….

  • LRV

    The Guardian screwed up their data. What is clear though is that we have scored more this year than last. We are also entering the most crucial period of the league. I hope that we come out of it with flying colours. Kudos, Walter.

  • Flint McCullough

    I never believe in tempting fate.

    We shall see how many goals we have scored by the end of the season. I think we are getting a bit carried away with this 100 goals thing, as well as our current form. It will only be another stick to beat us with.

  • Two things.

    I did not make it at all clear that I (Tony) added the chart about goals from the Guardian to the end of Walter’s article, and did that without his permission. I don’t normally interfere with other writer’s articles at all, but just thought the chart was so interesting I could not resist putting it in. The blame for the chart being misleading should be directed to me, not to Walter, whose article was, as always, highly accurate.

    Tony

  • Flint McCullough

    On a different topic.

    The Spurs’ financial results are interesting.

    They show player purchases for the year as £119.3m against sales of £72.5m = (£46.8m) yet the profit on disposal of registrations is £56.5m.

    The BBC says:

    “The trading profit of £56.5m is derived from the sales of players based on the value the club assigns on its books, not simply what they were bought and sold for.”

    Can anyone of you financial wizards explain this? Have they previously undervalued these players?

  • walter

    Paul at the end of the season we could compare it in total. I compared it the first time the way I did. I had doubt and could have gone for the way you suggest. But then I thought someone would say that you can only compare against the same team.
    I think both ways of looking at it are a valid way of comparing two seasons.
    When we take your way we have got 5 points more now and that’s not bad at all. 13 goals more scored and just 2 more against.
    So if you take my way or your way: we are doing much better then last year untill now. (PERIOD) 😉 And that is the main conclusion and most important thing I would say.

  • walter

    I think the figures from the Guardian are rather a good addition Tony. I’ve no problem with them.
    It just tells us that when the Arsenal plays everybody will see an exciting game with lots of goals.
    I think the figures are correct it’s just that you have to know how the Guardian has calculated it. I think they only took PL goals.
    My favorite line when I write match report is still “1-0 to The Arsenal” but is almost never the score at the end. Wonder is there still someone out there who dares to call us boring ?

  • Paul C.

    Walter – absolutely. I dont think anyone would question the assumption that we have started better this season – by any metric.

    I just think the season seems to go in segments, with international breaks, domestic cup matches and midweek European games at the same time each season. When you play a team is very important therefore. Is it right after an international break? Is it after a European match? Is it over the Christmas period (although Christmas fixtures are nowhere near as congested and nightmarish as they used to be) or the Easter period (ditto – the advantages of a 38 game season). Has a team gotten fixture congestion due to Cup success and therefore is expected to play 5 games in 11 days or something ridiculous like that?

    What is interesting is that we played Spurs at about the exact same time this season and last season. Last season we were near the top, they were at the bottom (right at the bottom) and we drew 4-4. This year they were flying near the top of the table, above us, and we thrashed them.

    The Fulham comparison is an interesting one as well. In neither year did we play particularly well at Fulham. But this year we scraped through with exactly the type of 1-0 win we have all been crying out for in the past 3-4 years.

    The team by team comparison breaks down with promotion/relegation (as you point out in your piece) and with teams like Utd. Our 0-0 draw at OT last year was in a completely dead match. Our season was over, and Utd were champions. It is hard to say “we did better/worse than last year” with games like that.

  • Paul C.

    And by the way – Arsenal are bloody boring these days.

  • Ian Trevett

    I think we are being a bit cautious here.
    Let’s aim for 200 goals this season 😉

  • When we do hit 100 can we sing “100 to the Arsenal

    I don’t know how clubs value players, and I always thought that in the books the value of the player was written right down because you never could know what would happen. But maybe not.

    Tottenham’s finances are a mystery every year – always a profit – but never quite makes sense. It is like Manchester U I think – they have several different companies doing different things and one can make a profit and another a loss, but we don’t always hear about the whole lot together.

    And no one ever comes out and says, right, here is the whole package of what is going on.

  • walter

    Just on the book Making the Arsenal: I really am enjoying it. Like you promised Tony, it has lots of word in it. 😉
    And even being a very fast reader in Dutch (books of over 500 pages I read in a working week time) It will take a bit longer on a book in English. Also that I’m not going to work with the public transport these days (on which I always sit and read books) and reading a book when driving my car is not a very wise thing to do… so I have to read it when I got 5 minutes free and this doesn’t help the speed of reading.
    But the good thing is when I have 5 minutes I first take the book before opening my computer. And this really means something. It just means its a good book. Just visited the march shareholers meeting. mmmmm if I start reading again after closing my computer I could be in for a short night. 🙂

  • Tell you what Walter – they don’t run shareholders meetings like that any more.

    The funny thing is, they were complaining about Arsenal being beaten by Hull 100 years ago! That is true – an extraordinary coincidence.

  • walter

    Just off topic but just read that the German keeper Enke who played for Hannover has killed himself at the age of 32.
    He played against us in preseason. That is some sad news. 32 years …being professional footballplayer.. playing for your national team… and then you turn out the light for ever….
    This is sad news

  • Abhishek

    I have read the Arsenal annual report and the way they value players at Arsenal is this according to me.

    value of player = Price at which player is bought + the wages paid to them

    So the profit from selling of players can be comparing the same players they sold with the price at which they were bought and not necessarily the players bought in the same year.

    They might not be adding the wages of the player in the value of the player so this can result in even higher profit (which seems the case to me).

    PS: I will read the Arsenal annual report again and will try to read the Spurs report too.

  • ignatz

    Yep, Guardian stats are fine. Goals in each game, not goals scored by that team.

    And very sad about Enke.

  • diceman1984

    We will get by the 100 goals mark and win the league.