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RefWatch – Arsenal Vs Aston Villa (24/03/2012 – 15:00)



Untold Arsenal on Twitter @UntoldArsenal


By DogFace

  • Referee: Phil Dowd
  • Assistant 1: Stuart Burt
  • Assistant 2: Adam Watts
  • 4th Official: Darren Deadman

Good morning stat-fans and welcome to RefWatch… it’s another shamefully bare bones edition of RefWatch – work has been a demanding mistress this week and to top it off I was dragged away to a quite dreadful charity quiz night that only just ended… it’s a shame as I was going to talk about some interesting stuff and quite possibly go off on one about all kinds of shit; ahh well – let’s look to the Asian markets.

Asian Handicap (betting line) market:

Home Handicap Away
2.050 0 – 1 1/2 1.850

The Under/Over market:

Over Handicap Under
1.875 2 3/4 2.025

One and a half ball looks a bit generous to me on the betting line as Villa didn’t play their match on Wednesday against Bolton. We did rather sit back in our game against Everton and perhaps this was a gamble to keep something in the bag for this game.

Aston Villa I feel will also have a point to prove after a very spirited display in the reverse fixture earlier this season in which they came away with nothing.

Let’s have a look at the Referee:

  • Full name: Phil Dowd
  • Date of birth: 26-Jan-1963 (Age 49)
  • Place of birth: Staffordshire
  • Resides: Staffordshire
  • EPL/ECH Referee Since: 2000/2001
  • EPL/ECH Games to date: 276

Phil Dowd
Phil Dowd working the crowd… hello mum!

It’s Phil Dowd again… the panto villian; you remember him from the excellent referee reviews:

Season Score Match
2010/2011 41.000% Newcastle United 4 – 4 Arsenal
2010/2011 64.910% Liverpool 3 – 1 Manchester United
2010/2011 67.390% Arsenal 0 – 0 Blackburn Rovers
2011/2012 89.130% Liverpool 1 – 1 Sunderland
2011/2012 82.980% Tottenham Hotspur 1 – 5 Manchester City
2011/2012 79.070% Manchester United 3 – 1 Chelsea
2011/2012 90.630% Blackburn Rovers 0 – 4 Manchester City
2011/2012 80.850% Norwich City 1 – 2 Arsenal
2011/2012 64.150% Manchester City 1 – 0 Arsenal
2011/2012 89.470% Manchester United 5 – 0 Wigan Athletic
2011/2012 75.680% Chelsea 1 – 0 Sunderland
2011/2012 75.610% Manchester United 2 – 1 Liverpool
2011/2012 73.530% Liverpool 3 – 0 Everton
Average Score: 74.954%

Let’s check out his stats!

FPB = Fouls Per Booking (vertical axis)
BPM = Bookings Per Match(line width)
AHS = Asian Handicap Swing i.e. the deviation from the expected result(vertical axis)
PPG = Points Per Game(line width)
Therefore a high thin line for FPB/BPM would indicate a lot of fouls and very little bookings – and a low thin line for AHS/PPG would indicate an underperformance against the betting line and very few points taken.

Phil Dowd has had 19 games for Arsenal consisting of 10 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses.

Arsenal are currently in 3rd in Phil Dowd’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an average of 1.89 PPG.

In Phil Dowd’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Arsenal come 16th with an average negative swing of -0.03.

Arsenal are currently in 17th in Phil Dowd’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an overall average of 1.84 BPM.

In Phil Dowd’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Arsenal come 28th with an overall average of 6.20 FPB.

It’s fair to say that we have had an up and down relationship with Phil Dowd. In the 2006/2007 and 2007/2008 seasons we underperformed but still did ok in terms of our PPG. We did a lot better in the 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 seasons but in the 2010/2011 season we crashed big time – not only that Phil Dowd’s booking habits swung heavily against us booking our players more and often. This season we have picked up slightly but we are still not showing a good return of points under Phil Dowd.

The colour of the line represents the player type.
The position of the line against the vertical axis will indicate the average time of the booking and the thickness of the line indicates the average number of bookings of players in that position.
Therefore a high fat orange line would indicate that the referee often books the specified teams defence out of the challenge early, a low thin line or no line would indicate the opposite.  The number of minutes bottoms out at 100 to indicate no bookings.

Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Arsenal took all their bookings under Phil Dowd.

The colour of the line represents the player type.
The position of the line against the vertical axis will indicate the average time of the booking and the thickness of the line indicates the average number of bookings of players in that position.
Therefore a high fat orange line would indicate that the referee often books the specified teams defence out of the challenge early, a low thin line or no line would indicate the opposite.  The number of minutes bottoms out at 100 to indicate no bookings.

Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Arsenal’s opposition took all their bookings under Phil Dowd.

FPB = Fouls Per Booking (vertical axis)
BPM = Bookings Per Match(line width)
AHS = Asian Handicap Swing i.e. the deviation from the expected result(vertical axis)
PPG = Points Per Game(line width)
Therefore a high thin line for FPB/BPM would indicate a lot of fouls and very little bookings – and a low thin line for AHS/PPG would indicate an underperformance against the betting line and very few points taken.

Phil Dowd has had 18 games for Aston Villa consisting of 5 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses.

Aston Villa are currently in 23rd in Phil Dowd’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an average of 1.11 PPG.

In Phil Dowd’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Aston Villa come 13th with an average positive swing of 0.02.

Aston Villa are currently in 13th in Phil Dowd’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an overall average of 1.67 BPM.

In Phil Dowd’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 5 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Aston Villa come 6th with an overall average of 8.77 FPB.

Aston Villa have had a remarkably similar run of form under Phil Dowd in that they used to do really well before doing so very badly and then recovering a bit. The only difference really is in the bookings in which, despite their poor run of form, Phil Dowd seems to be far more lenient with Villa in the challenge than Arsenal.

The colour of the line represents the player type.
The position of the line against the vertical axis will indicate the average time of the booking and the thickness of the line indicates the average number of bookings of players in that position.
Therefore a high fat orange line would indicate that the referee often books the specified teams defence out of the challenge early, a low thin line or no line would indicate the opposite.  The number of minutes bottoms out at 100 to indicate no bookings.

Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Aston Villa took all their bookings under Phil Dowd.

The colour of the line represents the player type.
The position of the line against the vertical axis will indicate the average time of the booking and the thickness of the line indicates the average number of bookings of players in that position.
Therefore a high fat orange line would indicate that the referee often books the specified teams defence out of the challenge early, a low thin line or no line would indicate the opposite.  The number of minutes bottoms out at 100 to indicate no bookings.

Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Aston Villa’s opposition took all their bookings under Phil Dowd.

Let’s move on now to check out how Phil Dowd performs against selected teams in the EPL:

The ine thickness represents the average Points Per Game and the position of the line against the vertical axis represents the average swing againd the handicap.

Phil Dowd’s trends are as interesting as they are erratic. Liverpool look fairly normal where are Manchester United have underperformed (while still taking good points) until this season. Tottenham were showing a steady rise until this season where they have crashed. Chelsea are sine waving their way through the seasons under Dowd while Manchester City have risen from the gutter to the stars with the most remarkable turnaround in relative performance I have ever seen.

As you can see from Aston Villa’s line – they were super performers under Dowd back in the day but now, not so much. Arsenal also did well under Dowd until recently – both teams have shown improvement this season hitting the handicap about even – and if that still holds true then, since we are giving 1 ½ goals, we should take 3 points… however the Predictortron gives Arsenal a -0.704671 of a goal disadvantage but that could be nonsense as I’ve been tinkering with the wee fellah of late to take in some extra parameters and I can’t remember what state I left it in or why it would come up with a figure like this.

If you’d like to toss your hard earned to the winds of fate then why not do so here.

———————-

Post-pub previews: Arsenal vs Villa. Spurs trailing in our wake

Premier League weekend previews – the games of Arsenal, Man U, Man C, Chelsea and Tottenham

Our last match – how the referee did.   Everton 0 Arsenal 1

Untold Index
History Index
Making the Arsenal

45 comments to RefWatch – Arsenal Vs Aston Villa (24/03/2012 – 15:00)

  • Anne

    Well, hopefully it will be good karma for Arsenal that we’ve donated most of this particular Refwatch to charity.

    Also, nice to see the Predictortron back again, even though it’s wrong this time. (Famous last words? We’ll see)

  • Shard

    Just the ‘ideal’ ref to give us for this game. Villa’s tactics under Mcleish will be to sit back, defend and hope to catch us on the break, all the while indulging in rough play. If Phil Dowd is ‘far more lenient’ with them in the challenge you will see us struggle to score, and Villa will get more chances to catch us on the counter. In such a scenario, the Predictotron might not be wrong. I’d rather Arsenal go in thinking they start with a goal disadvantage and play accordingly. Phil Dowd is not to be trusted, especially now that we are ahead of Spurs and Chelsea.

  • Dogface: one of your sublime comments

    the Predictortron gives Arsenal a -0.704671 of a goal disadvantage but that could be nonsense.

    Sheer utter brilliance.

    Oh and by the way I left your headline alone, you’ll notice.

  • Mahdain

    agree with shard..dowd is gonna make it difficult for us and considering the winning run we are on they couldnt have sent a more ideal candidate to end it considering both dean and webb failed to do so..really hoping the boys are ready for him

  • arsenal win 3 Aston villa 1

  • Mahdain

    i dont think the predictoron is wrong dogface .we are going in a goal down and ofcourrse with one yellow card..suprised?i can put money on dowd booking song as he always does just hoping its not as early as in the city game

  • Tasos

    Arsenal are in fine form, confidence is high, the players are fit and the sun is shinning, I doubt even the dark spectre of big Phil can stop our momentum at present.

    I have a feeling we are going to give Alex Mcleish a rare pasting today. Payback time!

  • Rich_Fryer

    I’ve had a bad feeling about this game all week. My gut says 2:2 but I hope I’m wrong and we get a nice win with no injuries.

  • Arun

    Is it just me or is Dowd having a good game ???

  • Ref Reviewer 03

    @Arun – I feel the same. Dowd is a very good ref when he wants to be.

  • Anne

    @Mahdain:

    Hmm… The score would have been 4-0, had Dowd not refused to blow for that foul on Ox in the box (haven’t seen replay, but I thought it was a foul in the box 🙂 ).

  • Arun

    @ Anne, NO. It wasn’t a foul as ireland had won the ball fairly.

  • ak47

    looked like a pen in real time but think it was a good tackle watching the replay. but.
    i dont think the tackle was good enough as the ball didnt change direction enough to stop a goal scoring opportunity and it brought the ox down. if he wasnt brought down im sure he would have scored.
    what a performance tho. i watched the early kick off. and it was a total bore fest. turned it off 2/3rds through.
    motm-walcott.
    my pool mate is a lot more humble now-a-days. no more phone calls of ridicule. ha. if 100mil puts em 18pts behind us after the trouble we’ve had imagine if we had kept cesc, nasri, had jack, the full backs more, diaby and even adebayor because you can imagine where the tots would be without him. and pool had not spent 100mil.
    blinded by romance.

  • Johnny Deigh

    I didn’t slow it down frame for frame but I’d say the pen shout looked a 50-50 call. Ireland won the ball, but it looked like he made slight contact slightly before he won the ball.

    Dowd has to think that if he gives the penalty, then he’d probably have to send off Ireland as well and if he wasn’t sure he doesn’t want to risk what may have been a bad decision.

  • Shard

    I think it was a foul but thought it was outside the box.. It was also the sort of foul that you don’t get in England very often because commentators go on about the ‘he got the ball’ argument. I agree with Johnny Deigh about why it was a foul.

    I did think it was a possible handball when Rosicky’s shot was blocked. They never showed a proper replay of that. We got the corner but I thought the defender came rushing in with his hands raised and that’s how he blocked it.

    Also, regarding Dowd’s performance, I agree he didn’t screw us over. But what was that foul on Vermaelen? And he gave him a very stern, aggressive talking to.. Did anybody see what that was about?

  • Shard

    Here’s an interesting stat that came up from the match commentators.

    “Arsenal haven’t lost a game that kicked off at Saturday 3 PM for the last 18 months, and have won every one of them this season.”

    Dogface, if I recall you were saying something once about how kick off times determine the probability of fixing in the match. How does this fit in with your theory? Anything?

  • Arvind

    No not a penalty. Good clean tackle. Yes he got the man later; but I don’t like to see those given. Its not malicious, its not going for the player; he’s clearly played the ball; football is a contact sport..I’m for giving the defender his due.

    @RefReviewers: What do the rules say though?

  • Anne

    @ak47:

    Who wants Cesc and Nasri anyway? Not me. I like the current line up, and I thought they looked excellent today. Thoroughly enjoyed every second of it 🙂

    I hope Koscielny isn’t out long, though. He makes such a difference to the team.

  • Anne

    Regarding Cesc and Nasri, what I meant is that we’re better off with players that are loyal to Arsenal.

  • Arvind: from my refereeing experience (less than the ref reviewers mind!) ball before man is the key here, but you can still commit a foul when winning the ball if you do so by steaming through them dangerously/recklessly.

    Naturally, when tackling you may catch the player with some follow through accidentally, so the rulebook allows for it as long as it isn’t dangerous, and the ball was cleanly won before said contact.

  • Arvind

    @Anne: Apparently Koscielny couldn’t move after the warm up. Check out Arsene’s interview on Arsenal.com. Fingers crossed.

    @Phil: Thanks a lot. Would you agree with me in this case, that it wasn’t a penalty on AOC? Or would you have a different opinion?

  • ak47

    same here anne. good players but…can never forgive na$ri obviously and cesc well. that hand ball and back heel was the final straw.
    i heard that fact too shard…..whats that?…..qpr 15.00 next sat?
    yes please. 🙂

  • Anne

    @Arvind:

    Fingers crossed.

  • Anne

    @ak47:

    Exactly. Glad that some others noticed those things about Cesc, along with the likely reason for them. Bring on QPR. Hopefully we’ll continue our 18 month winning streak 🙂

  • bjtgooner

    Good win once again – its very nice to be able to write “once again!”
    I also like the fighting spirit in this team – and they are stating to play some excellent football again. We have some difficult games to come but the team confidence must be really good just now – having beaten Dean, Webb, Mason and now Dowd.

  • robl

    Well done lads…
    We’ve caught Newcastle
    We’ve caught Liverpool
    We’ve caught Chelsea
    We’ve caught the spuds
    Mankini, you’re next!

  • Mahdain

    a fantastic performance once again and have to say i felt dowd had a decent game though will wait for the ref review to confirm it..
    it feels really great seeing how we are triumphing against the AAA,the media and ofcourse PGMO and all what they are throwing at us..i feel like writing an article about this 🙂

  • Anne

    @Mahdain:

    I’ll look forward to reading it 🙂

  • Mahdain

    @Anne haha i dont know if im gonna do it have been really busy with work lately but ill do it when i get the time 🙂 ..btw you should read ollie holt twitter page as he is being hilarious trying to defend the BS he spout back on August about Arsenal and Liverpool..apparently he stuck by wenger and it was us the fan who wanted him out can we prove just what a liar he is?
    https://twitter.com/#!/OllieHoltMirror

  • Anne

    @Mahdain:

    Lol.

    “Who is @OllieHoltMirror ? Is he a journalist.. No !! He’s a twat with zero footballing brain !!!”

    Always like to see this sort of measure of true fan opinion 🙂

  • Mahdain

    @Anne thing is he doesnt want to own up and accept he was wrong and eat his humble pie but instead he is trying to play the victim card and shift the blame on the fans..i really do hope we keep shoving this tweet down his throat untill he owns up or deletes it
    “Oliver Holt @OllieHoltMirror Liverpool victory was a victory for a club that has moved forward during the summer against a club that has gone backwards during summer”

  • Mahdain

    or this
    “Oliver Holt @OllieHoltMirror If no more major signings are made, top 4 next season will be 1. United 2. City 3. Chelsea 4. Liverpool”
    what an idiot

  • Anne

    I agree with the fan that I quoted above 🙂

  • bob

    “The Great Turnaround” is in full effect! On with the counter-screw against the “Rednose XX.” Never has third place been so right. 🙂

  • goonergerry

    This upsurge in our confidence and overall form since the Spurs game has been very welcome and restored a lot of faith amongst those who were wavering.
    But in all honesty I don’t recall people on this site predicting a 3rd place finish in September when we were 17th.
    if you said at the end of September RVP will remain fit all season and Rosicky will be the best midfielder in the country during March- you would have been more likely to have been sectioned than applauded for having second sight.
    I don’t think ex public schoolboy Holt has any great insight to offer us football plebs-but I am happy to live without his or his journalist mates endorsement- we do far better when we are underdogs.

  • Strus

    On MOTD they had not shown the AOC great dribble and Ireland tackle in the box.

  • bob

    goonergerry,
    Nor was Arsene predicting a third place finish, as he stated in yesterday’s press conference. Sorry, but I’m not clear on your exact point. My thoughts: Were there no grounds in September for massive worry? About RvP’s (unprecedented) fitness over an entire season to date (knock on wood) – would you agree that betting on that in September was a huge gamble – that while it has( to date) paid off massively – and that it was reckless for AFC to not have covered the possibility of that injury in the winter x-fer? Worrying out loud and being a fervent fan were not and are not contradictory. We’d have been nowhere near 3rd place today if RvP had a serious knock. It would have derailed the Great Turnaround that we are brilliantly executing as the many injured have returned to health and high-functioning.

  • Ong Bing

    Another good week. We played good game, get 3 points, and 2 teams behind us all drop points.

    It is strange to see the table now, Spud 3 points under us!!!
    And Chelski in 5th place with 8 points under us.

    About Sat 15:00 game, we only have another 2:

    – March 31, QPR – Asnl
    – Apr 28, Stoke – Asnl

    The last game will be May 13, we are away to WBA, it is 15:00 too but Sunday.

  • Ong Bing

    Looking our position now in 3rd place, remember our bad start, I think about a few thing, and the word “no player bigger than club”.

    Last summer we lost our captain that was our best player, we lose Samir, Clichy (first choice LB), we also lose Jack, so we lose our 4 best players, our 4 starting 11.

    And after league start, we lose our all fullbacks! What a disaster! So we lose 6 of our starting 11 comparing with last season.

    But now, we sitting nicely in 3rd place, climbing from 17th place!

    So the word no player bigger than club is certainly true, and I think the word manager is more important than player is certainly true!

    We are lucky have the boards that so patience and trust the manager. I don’t know where we are when the boards sack Arsene in the October. Maybe now we are compete with Pool for 7th place. (And surely no St Totteringham day this year!)

    With our current squad and group of young promising players, the future looks so bright. But I don’t expect to much for next season, win the major trophies is good, not win anything is still ok for me, as long as we are in top 3 and played attractive football.

    I am the man that only want to see a beautiful 90″ game in the weekends, I don’t want to see cabinet of trophies for 90″ every weekends!

  • idea

    The phrase ‘routine win’ springs to mind from the win against The Villa and credit to all involved. In all aspects it was a good performance but I also agree that defensive we still have a few faults. Just a few but no doubt it’s better than say even a month ago. Arguably Villa were the worst side to visit The Grove this season. I can’t decide between them after two visits and Blackburn. It will be very interesting to see what happens with Arteta next season with the return of Wilshire and Wenger’s unflinching support towards Ramsey. And that’s before the talk of us supposedly signing Mario Gotze. Having said that Arteta’s Premier League experience has shown and is beneficial for us. Although I can see why he has yet to and will never win a cap for his country, he is in his own right a good player and much more humble and likeable than the arrogant self-proclaimed ‘winner’ Denilson who is to my knowledge still waiting for that elusive first senior Brazil cap. Keep dreaming son. And the possibility of Denilson and other ‘fat on the wage bill’ duds back with us next season shouldn’t be ruled out either, with no other club willing to pay the extortionate amounts in terms of transfer fees and wages to take them off us. But then we know who is to blame for that don’t we? As for that chant, the word hypocrisy springs to mind. Was it only two months ago that half of these people singing that song were telling Wenger to ‘spend some f*cking money’ and that he “didn’t know what he was doing”? I personally didn’t join in as I still think serious questions have to be asked about the manager with regards to our decline since 2006 and I still have doubts long term but the team would always have my support. But these winning streaks and unbeaten runs which have occurred since 2006/07 must one day lead to something more tangible not just European Cup qualification with no real chance of winning it. Still, up The Arsenal. –

  • Finsbury

    That was an interesting decision by the referee by the ref in Utd vs. Fulham game, Carrick on Murphy for a non-call pelanty.

    At least it all evens out in the end.

  • Tasos

    Ha Ha
    The league is a joke
    Another non given penalty at Old Trafford
    Carrick fouls Murphy from behind, blatant penalty!

  • WalterBroeckx

    I didn’t see the whole game as I had other things to do. But suddenly I realised the game was almost over so I thought I would see how things were standing.
    And then I saw it was 1-0 for Utd and the next thing I saw was a clear foul on a Fulham player when a MU player kicked against his left foot and brought him down from behind. Of course no penalty given.
    I turned the TV off. I had seen enough….