By Walter Broeckx
In the last few days and weeks we have had visits from supporters of other teams following our coverage of the referee in matches involving them, and I would like to add a bit to the debate of the ‘it evens out at the end of the season”
I have taken the numbers from all the games we reviewed so far so we can see how things have evened out for each team.
So the first thing I have done is to see how many mistakes each ref makes in a game. And I put this in a table that you will see below.
I have taken the total number of games for each ref, counted the wrong calls they have made in those games and then taken the average total of wrong calls for each game. In the final column you will find the number that is acceptable for each ref.
|Ref||Games||Total wrong calls||Average wrong calls/game||Averave wrong calls/team|
|Acceptable wrong calls for each team||6|
That last column is the average wrong calls divided by 2. Now I must point out that when I use the word “acceptable” this doesn’t mean that we just should accept it. No, I presume that they just are not capable of doing any better and that all those refs are as unbiased as a new born baby.
So based on these numbers any team can expect to be at the wrong end of some 6 decisions in each game. Around 12 mistakes in total for each game and 6 for each team. Because according to what the media wants us to believe: it all evens out.
Now I could go in to detail with each ref but let me say that Dowd and Oliver are the refs so far this season with not many wrong calls. I know Moss made the fewest mistakes so far but this was only based on 1 game so I will not count him. As I will also not really count Swarbrick when I talk about the individual numbers of the refs.
At the other end we find Foy and Mason with nine mistakes you can expect in each game going against you. Nine mistakes against each team will mean that they will make around 18 wrong calls in a game. And I really don’t think this is even close to being called acceptable.
But now I want to show you how this number of six mistakes against a team can pass the reality check with each team.
So a team that gets six decisions going against them can complain about a poor standard in refereeing. But it is no indication of bias against that team. The bias only becomes visible when you have more than those six calls going against you on average. On the other hand a team that has less than six wrong calls going against them can be very happy with the ref in general. I know that if they only get one wrong call against them but it was a penalty or a goal they will be unhappy. But then they have to console themselves with the thought that it will even out.
So here we give you the numbers of the decisions in real numbers against each team on average. And remember 6 is the average wrong decision going against you.
|Team||Games||Numbers of wrong calls against each team||Average||“Normal” wrong calls against each team||Bias or reality check|
So in this table having a + in front of your number in the last column is a bad thing. To start with another team: West Bromwich Albion gets on average not the normal 6 calls against them but they get 8,4 calls against them when we reviewed them.
And it is not really the biggest teams that have the best numbers when you look at this table. Swansea is having the best return when you look at mistakes made. They are not even getting half of the wrong calls against them that they should expect. And with all respect I think Swansea can be called a small team and so one would expect them to be on the receiving end of those things. Bolton is also a team that gets a lot of wrong calls in their favour. As is Aston Villa. About Swansea we might just add that they sometimes are called a team that is playing some kind of Arsenal style of football. Based on possession and passing the ball around. Just remember this for later on in the article.
Manchester United is a team that is on the good side of the wrong calls also. As is Liverpool and Manchester City when we look at the top teams in the league table so far. The only team that has come really close to numbers that even out is Fulham so far.
And at the wrong end of the mistakes by the refs we see that apart from WBA there is also a bit of work to do for Everton.
And when we compare all this to the numbers of Arsenal it is staggering to see how many mistakes are made by the refs against Arsenal. We come to double the numbers that are “acceptable”. One could say that for any mistake that is made in our favour we will pay by getting it back double.
And then I come back to the Swansea – Arsenal comparison. Both teams with a similar style of play. And yet such a contrast in the numbers of mistakes. And if you might expect the big team to be getting the favours it is the contrary in fact.
BUT let me finish this article with some good news. The PGMOL, SAF, SKY, the BBC, the other media they all have been telling us the last week that at the end of the season : “it will even out”.
So from now on to even things out we will have in the 7 remaining fixtures some 245 decisions going in our favour. That would mean some 35 mistakes in each game going our way. The other teams we have to face and who pretend it evens out will have the usual 6 in their favour.
In our remaining home fixtures we will have 8 penalties given to us, imaginary or not because that is what should happen when things even out. And I don’t take in account the ones that are given to some of our rivals so any penalty given to them should result in one extra bonus penalty for Arsenal.
So I hope Mike Riley is reading this and will instruct his refs to start the big even out campaign that he has promised us a while ago. We never claimed things would even out. But with all of the rest claiming it does, we will be treated very nice in the next 7 games. After all Mike Riley made us the promise himself. Didn’t he?
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