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RefWatch – West Bromwich Albion Vs Arsenal (13/05/2012 – 15:00)



Untold Arsenal on Twitter @UntoldArsenal


By DogFace

  • Referee: Michael Jones
  • Assistant 1: Mick McDonough
  • Assistant 2: Richard West
  • 4th Official: Andy D’Urso

Good morning stat-fans and welcome to RefWatch…

Here is it – the last day of the season and here am I saying it doesn’t matter. You heard me right – it doesn’t matter.

Ahh; but what is it that doesn’t matter is the question!?

The answer, fellow Ref Watchers, is the choice of referee for this match because I don’t think it’s going to be an issue… I’ll explain in a minute – but first, here’s the usual stat bundle…

Asian Handicap (betting line) market:

Home Handicap Away
2.100 3/4 – 0 1.800

The Under/Over market:

Over Handicap Under
1.975 3 1.925

Let’s have a look at the Referee:

  • Full name: Michael Jones
  • Date of birth:
  • Place of birth:
  • Resides:
  • EPL/ECH Referee Since: 2002/2003
  • EPL/ECH Games to date: 181

Michael Jones
Michael Jones

It’s Michael Jones again… you remember him:

Season Score Match
2011/2012 83.330% Chelsea 3 – 1 Everton
2011/2012 79.590% West Bromwich Albion 1 – 2 Manchester United
2011/2012 75.410% Bolton Wanderers 2 – 3 Manchester City
2011/2012 79.630% Chelsea 3 – 1 Norwich City
2011/2012 79.590% Tottenham Hotspur 4 – 0 Liverpool
2011/2012 70.000% Manchester United 1 – 1 Newcastle United
2011/2012 80.000% Everton 2 – 0 Chelsea
2011/2012 90.320% Manchester City 3 – 0 Blackburn Rovers
2011/2012 63.640% Chelsea 2 – 1 Wigan Athletic
Average Score: 77.946%

Let’s check out his stats!

FPB = Fouls Per Booking (vertical axis)
BPM = Bookings Per Match(line width)
AHS = Asian Handicap Swing i.e. the deviation from the expected result(vertical axis)
PPG = Points Per Game(line width)
Therefore a high thin line for FPB/BPM would indicate a lot of fouls and very little bookings – and a low thin line for AHS/PPG would indicate an underperformance against the betting line and very few points taken.

Michael Jones has had 13 games for West Bromwich Albion consisting of 6 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses.

West Bromwich Albion are currently in 13th in Michael Jones’ personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 4 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an average of 1.62 PPG.

In Michael Jones’ personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 4 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, West Bromwich Albion come 2nd with an average positive swing of 1.33.

West Bromwich Albion are currently in 14th in Michael Jones’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 4 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an overall average of 1.54 BPM.

In Michael Jones’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 4 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, West Bromwich Albion come 18th with an overall average of 7.95 FPB.

The colour of the line represents the player type.
The position of the line against the vertical axis will indicate the average time of the booking and the thickness of the line indicates the average number of bookings of players in that position.
Therefore a high fat orange line would indicate that the referee often books the specified teams defence out of the challenge early, a low thin line or no line would indicate the opposite.  The number of minutes bottoms out at 100 to indicate no bookings.

Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where West Bromwich Albion took all their bookings under Michael Jones.

The colour of the line represents the player type.
The position of the line against the vertical axis will indicate the average time of the booking and the thickness of the line indicates the average number of bookings of players in that position.
Therefore a high fat orange line would indicate that the referee often books the specified teams defence out of the challenge early, a low thin line or no line would indicate the opposite.  The number of minutes bottoms out at 100 to indicate no bookings.

Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where West Bromwich Albion’s opposition took all their bookings under Michael Jones.

FPB = Fouls Per Booking (vertical axis)
BPM = Bookings Per Match(line width)
AHS = Asian Handicap Swing i.e. the deviation from the expected result(vertical axis)
PPG = Points Per Game(line width)
Therefore a high thin line for FPB/BPM would indicate a lot of fouls and very little bookings – and a low thin line for AHS/PPG would indicate an underperformance against the betting line and very few points taken.

Michael Jones has had 6 games for Arsenal consisting of 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss.

Arsenal are currently in 5th in Michael Jones’ personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 4 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an average of 2.17 PPG.

In Michael Jones’ personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 4 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Arsenal come 3rd with an average positive swing of 0.73.

Arsenal are currently in 18th in Michael Jones’ personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 4 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an overall average of 1.67 BPM.

In Michael Jones’ personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 4 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Arsenal come 34th with an overall average of 6.00 FPB.

The colour of the line represents the player type.
The position of the line against the vertical axis will indicate the average time of the booking and the thickness of the line indicates the average number of bookings of players in that position.
Therefore a high fat orange line would indicate that the referee often books the specified teams defence out of the challenge early, a low thin line or no line would indicate the opposite.  The number of minutes bottoms out at 100 to indicate no bookings.

Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Arsenal took all their bookings under Michael Jones.

The colour of the line represents the player type.
The position of the line against the vertical axis will indicate the average time of the booking and the thickness of the line indicates the average number of bookings of players in that position.
Therefore a high fat orange line would indicate that the referee often books the specified teams defence out of the challenge early, a low thin line or no line would indicate the opposite.  The number of minutes bottoms out at 100 to indicate no bookings.

Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Arsenal’s opposition took all their bookings under Michael Jones.

Let’s move on now to check out how Michael Jones performs against selected teams in the EPL:

The ine thickness represents the average Points Per Game and the position of the line against the vertical axis represents the average swing againd the handicap.

As we can see – there are some solid results from West Brom and a triffic couple of seasons from Tottenham in there! Newcastle have been bouncing like a rubber cat over the last four seasons and Arsenal… well – we started with a huge win in 2009/2010 followed by an underperformance in 2010/2011 and this season we are yet to have a game – so on the face of it we might have cause to worry.

The Predictortron gives West Bromwich Albion a 1.342262 goal advantage which again isn’t great news on the face of it (to be honest I’m not sure where it plucked that figure from as it seems to do its own thing these days – I may try and reign it in a bit over the summer and nudge it in the right direction) but what the Predictortron doesn’t know and its cold calculations can never grasp is the fact that Roy Hodgson and Arsene Wenger are mates – it can’t even begin to contemplate that they not only lived near each other while he was manager at Fulham, they used to ‘hang out’. The Predictortron is unwilling to search through all the quotes of support from Arsene Wenger for Roy Hodgson over the years for not only the managerial positions he was in but the possible ones he might get – including some serious ‘big uppage’ that he should manage the team GB for the Olympics way back when (are they still doing that?).

Also, the other serious blind side the Predictortron has is that Roy will probably have use of a few squad members currently playing for the Arsenal team in the future in the shape of Gibbs, The Ox, Jack Wilshire and Walcott and he’s going to want 100% co-operation from these lads and he would probably appreciate them having a bit of Champions League experience under their belts – as would they [the players] and they might respect him [Roy] more if he didn’t send his squad out to kick the shit out of us in a match that means absolutely nothing to them in terms of their league position.

The very last thing that the Predictortron is going to ‘not compute’ is the fact that Roy, no doubt, thinks ‘Arry is a majassive cunt [technical term] for tapping up his job and would cheerfully take any opportunity handed to him to hoof him right in the happy sack – metaphorically speaking of course… well – maybe in real life too.

So you tell me, dear reader, should we be worried?


Untold Index
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17 comments to RefWatch – West Bromwich Albion Vs Arsenal (13/05/2012 – 15:00)

  • Shard

    Ummm… Yes…

  • Ugandan Goon

    1.342262, huh?
    time to start sticking fridge magnets from the arsenal shop on to the predictortron, the cold rational mother-of-pearl! and if you can hear this predictortron, MAC 2!
    going around giving people the ‘bouncing’ kittens like that.

  • robl

    Nice one Dogface. I for one will be hiding behind the sofa come 3pm, now that parenting has adjusted the playing field vis away games….

    COME ON ARSENAL!!!!!!!!!!

  • Stuart

    This stuff facinates me Dog Face, I’ve read every RefWatch this season and I still don’t understand it. I can see a hell of alot of data goes in to producing them, I just have difficulty in working out the charts and what they mean.

  • Stuart

    ps, that one was called:-
    REF PREVIEW v WBA: We’ve had this ref twice and we’ve lost both times!!!!!!!!!

  • Tasos

    Thanks DogFace

    Andy D’Urso fourth official, thought his EPL days were long gone.

    Where have they dug him up from?

    RVP needs one goal to equal the all time EPL record for 39 games, he could also create a new club record in a 38-game season, taking him one clear of Thierry Henry. Finally, a hat-trick for RVP would equal Arsenal’s post-war record for goals in a season, set by Ronnie Rooke back in 1947-48.

    I fancy Arsenal will score at a least once today.

    Keep a clean sheet and automatic CL qualification is ours.

  • Tasos

    “38 games”

  • WalterBroeckx

    We had him before this season. In a cup game.

    Jones is the only ref who has given a penalty to Arsenal at the Emirates in the last year. In fact he gave two penalties in our cup game against Aston Villa.

    Last year one of my conclusions of the cup games was: refs in the cup games suddenly perform differently compared to the league. I said that maybe there was no clear instructions in those games so they could do it as they want and can do it.

  • Dogface you are the only person who, speaking of a piece of software, could say

    “(to be honest I’m not sure where it plucked that figure from as it seems to do its own thing these days – I may try and reign it in a bit over the summer and nudge it in the right direction”

  • ak47

    nice theory. not worried anymore thanx. a respectable 3-1 to us.

  • Shard

    Who is the linesman on the side we are defending in the first half? He seemed unhappy when Santos scored, and of course hasn’t raised his flag for offside on the first goal we conceded. Not sure how bad a call it was. Just want to know who the linesman is.

  • WalterBroeckx

    Shard that should be Mick McDonough

  • Marton Fulop had a bit of an ‘off day’ today what?

    😉

  • WalterBroeckx

    😉 another spot on refwatch 🙂

  • rantetta

    Dogface
    Thanks for all the previews and your very interesting twitter feed.

    I, like Stuart – above, haven’t quite grasped the graphs, and in my case it’s simply because – despite your excellent “how to read it” – from some time ago, I look forward to some wonderful text from you. I might have a look and try to better understand them during off-season.

    But for me it’s the text that titillates. The restrained anger, the incredulity, the frankness. I love it.

    The ref today was doing typical WebbDean crap. I really found myself shouting at him (nowt unusual there I suppose, but really….)

    There was one point when a WBA player running in or towards Arsenal’s penalty area – grabbed Gibbs’ arm, fell over, and was awarded the free-kick. And there was that guy who kept falling over – he started the game injured and eventually, went off injured. (I hope he hurts all ****ing summer, the ****!

    I think your predictorbolux was correct, because WBA have kicked us around in the last few matches and as a result, have gotten a fair few points off us, and your friend, dirty deandancer, put paid to the “Arsenal don’t lose when kicking off at 3”, didn’t he. Arsenal really weren’t meant to win that match (if things had gone the way they were ‘planned’. It was all about St Tottenghummer. **** you Lineker. **** you right up the ….

    Nah. That’d hardly be punishment, would it?

    I can’t wait to read other articles following this one (to see what Arsenal’s real supporters have to say about today and our season. I just wanted first to praise you for some amazing previews. Thank you.