“Nightmare scenario” scare mongers fail to grasp fundamentals

By Tony Attwood

I have just read an article in which it is suggested that Arsenal may well be heading the way of Liverpool, and that unless the manager is changed that is where the club is likely to end up.

It is an interesting proposition, and one that requires some analysis.

Liverpool FC were once the top club in the country, but eventually they fell from grace.  Arsenal were involved in giving them that push away from the top, as George Graham’s two championships dealt them quite a blow.

But the biggest cause of Liverpool’s demise was surely the takeover by Gillet and Hicks.  Just in case you have forgotten here’s how it went.

In January 2007, Dubai International Capital pulled out of a deal to buy the club, and with David Moores seemingly anxious to sell, a couple of days later  Gillett and Hicks reached a deal to buy Liverpool FC for £435 million.

That money was £220 million to buy out the shareholders and included £44.8 million to clear the debt.  The rest was said to be set aside to build a new stadium.  The Board unanimously recommended that the club’s shareholders accept this offer.

Thereafter Liverpool bought Fernando Torres, Yossi Benayoun, and Ryan Babel, but Rafa Benítez constantly argued he needed more money, which was not forthcoming.

Meanwhile it became clear that the purchase of Liverpool was in effect a leveraged buy-out similar to that used at Manchester United which used money borrowed from the banks.   This debt was then put onto the club and so the club had to pay interest on the money used to buy the club!  (Man U survived because they were constantly making more money than Liverpool mostly through their worldwide marketing programme).

It also became clear that the old owners, who were expected to be part of the club’s future, were quickly eased out.   Nothing, it seems, was written into the terms of sale, for them to be kept on board, or to have any control over the club.   As a result, the new ground was not forthcoming, and as the club became unable to pay for its borrowings, eventually Royal Bank of Scotland took Gillet and Hicks to court to ensure the sale of the club.  The High Court ruled in favour of the creditors and so the club was sold again.

Since then Liverpool has been involved in some strange transfer deals – most notably buying Carroll on 31 January 2011 for £35 million, and have gone in for managerial change.   The Carroll affair was excused at the time by the fact that they had just got £50m from Chelsea, but in hindsight it looks as if a much better move would have been to buy several players at more normal prices.  Carroll’s subsequent performances have not given him the look of a £35m player.

Now we have to ask if Arsenal have any chance of following Liverpool’s decline which has left them with the old stadium, and out of the champions league.

Obviously the majority owner of Arsenal could do a leveraged buyout, but normally this is done instantly, not some years later so I think we can say it is extremely unlikely.

The majority owner could sell his shareholding elsewhere to someone else who could then fund his purchase through a leveraged buyout.  Certainly the previous owner of Liverpool seems to have been remiss in his sale of shares – it looks (again with hindsight) as if not enough checking as to what Gillet and Hicks would do.  Again one can’t ever be certain, but it seems as if Mr Kronke is not at all intending to do this sort of thing.  If he were he would presumably have sold to Mr Usmanov by now.

On the pitch not all Arsenal purchases have been brilliant – but then the same can be said of any club, and Arsenal are just about the only top club making a profit on player  buying and selling.

I can’t really think of anything as odd as the purchasing of Carroll for £35m happening at Arsenal.  Indeed most of the AAA complain that Mr Wenger doesn’t spend enough money and is too niggardly in his offering of money.

Next there is the stadium issue.  Liverpool has a problem because its income on match days is a lot lower than Manchester United’s and Arsenal’s.  Arsenal already has its new stadium – something the writers of the “nightmare scenario” article seem not to have noticed.  Liverpool are now talking of re-developing the ground, but that is problematic, and it is not clear where the money for this will come from.

As for being taken over by the bank, Arsenal’s building of the Emirates and selling of Highbury has been a financial success.

So on virtually all fronts (no leveraged buy out, no selling on irresponsibly, no stadium problems, nothing quite as odd as buying Carroll for £35m) Arsenal and Liverpool are not the same.  Indeed just to throw in one little extra, Liverpool lost £50m in their last financial year,  and may well not qualify for Europe under FFP, if they get into the top places.  Arsenal invariably make a profit.

Thus one might ask, where is the nightmare?

And the answer is that it is in fact a real nightmare – in effect a dream that has evolved in the writers’ minds.

It is unfortunate that so many people like to fantasise with dreams, but that is the way of the world, and obviously it does make some people happy.    We can be compared with Liverpool of course, but the comparison is not based on reality.  Just on a bad dream.

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45 Replies to ““Nightmare scenario” scare mongers fail to grasp fundamentals”

  1. Dear Mr Atwood,

    An interesting repost. I confess I have not read the original article, but purely on the strength of the theme of it that you yourself have highlighted, I would take you up on this:

    As you so rightly point out, Arsenal is in a much more robust position than Liverpool. The stadium is there, we have manageable debt and have not yet ‘Done an Andy Carroll’. All this points to us being in a much healthier position than Liverpool – off the pitch.

    However, on the pitch, things are not nearly so rosey. Like Liverpool, Arsenal was once a club used to competing regularly for the highest hounours in the land. And like Liverpool, we have fallen to a stage where some of our fans, treacherously in my opinion, have accepted the lie that ‘a club like Arsenal should not be competing wike the likes of Chelsea and Man City’. Evil lying BS as we all know. We are still a better team than Liverpool, but nearly so much as our massively superior off field performence should demand.

    Therefore, given that things off the pitch are so healthy, but on the other hand there is a decline of standards on the pitch that is impossible to deny, can you not see that there is at least an argument that the manager should be changed?

    This is not a call for his head. But only the most blinkered can deny that this is not something that every one of us, as true fans, should be accepting as worthy of some consideration.

    Just a thought..

  2. agree with your points about Liverpool’s takeover being a far different situation than our’s and our ground ownership.However,some of our useless,overpriced players remind me of Liverpool’s set up.

  3. Well if there is managerial change this blog will be done and dusted or the admins will have to follow their lord to another club. Jokes aside, no one realy wants wenger to leave just open his eyes and and stop testing our football club against his stubborn self.
    Arsene no one is asking for a 100mil messi not even a 30mil cavani for that matter. Stop spreading mythical lies and come clean for once.

  4. where is the footballing point here? cuz on the pitch LFC looking better each day under rodgers and we decline year after year!!!!

  5. @marchand. Yet we came 3rd last season. Pretty good for a team in decline year after year.

    However, I kinda agree to some short extent with the nightmare article. Liverpool were a top side, then dropped down to 3rd or 4th for many years. And after that they became a mid-table team.

    Can anyone see the resemblence?

    As long as we have AW we will never drop out of the top 4. But someone has to do something. Clichy, Na$ri, Fabregas, Song and the Dutch Skunk all left within 12 months. That was 5 guaranteed starting players, and that is where the problem lies. We cannot change half the starting line-up and realistically be competing for the top honours as we once did.

  6. There is so much nonsence out there about Arsenal at the moment. As for Liverpool, a great club who have been badly managed in recent years, then there is the owners….
    Apart from the balanced articles on this blog, sometimes takes an outsider to help show reality over Arsenal.
    I am going to be controversial here, and provide a link to a site that is in no way friendly towards Wenger, a site some on here may even wish to deny hits, and maybe for good reason.
    Worth considering this eloquent piece was written by a Liverpool fan, and very much goes against the grain on the site on which it is published:
    http://www.arsenalnewsreview.co.uk/index.php/news/2892/30/Massive-rant-from-rational-Wenger-fan
    Interesting bit at the end about how they gad to go through the recent Kenny era

  7. @Fedda, of course we can drop out of the top four. Having Wenger doesn’t indemnify the club from such a scenario. This complacency and arrogance from fans reminds me of the time an ex Pool player was acting like it was a God-given right that Pool should qualify for Europe every year and was thoroughly outraged when they didn’t.

    I rather wonder what Pool would do if they had the revenue we have from our large stadium and the many millions we have stashed away in case we don’t make the CL. I rather suspect they’d buy a few world class players.

  8. Tony
    My only critiscm of AW and Steve Bould is how we play as a team. We have some of the best defenders and midfielders in the EPL and yet we don’t defend we’ll as a team. I don’t believe it’s about throwing money at the problem as so many fans and critics would have us believe. You only have to look at the sums paid for duds like Torres, Carroll, Schevchenko, Veron etc, to realise its not always the solution.
    It’s more about attitude, application and tactics. Without Van Persie, Manure has a far inferior side to ours and yet Ferguson has got into their heads and convinced each and every player to give 110% for 95mins not just 45, 60, 80 or 90mins. His philsophy is based on a team fighting for each other right up to the last second whether it be attacking or defending as a unit. That’s what AW and Bouldy needs to address with our side and if they can’t then I’m afraid something has to give as no amount of money will fix out current predicament.

  9. Tony
    One other thing. There are those naive enough to believe we can compete with shitty and Chelski when it comes to transfers. AW has done what he thinks is right when it comes to buying players and that’s not to be drawn into ridiculous bidding wars and end up blowing or budget on one player who may or may not make a difference. We could have kept Van Pursey by giving him his £250k per week. But then we would have every player pushing for improved deals and without outside help we would certainly end up in Liverfools position in the next few years. If that’s what some of our fans want then they obviously are not true Arsenal fans. I want us competing for and winning trophies but not at any cost. remember Leeds and most Rangers. I bet their fans wished their clubs has been run a bit better so they wouldnt be in the positions they are now.

  10. @ Reality Check

    Maybe you could do with one. Arsene is hardly going to come out and openly criticise the board. They are his employers after all.

  11. Interestingly everything you write about there is about business and money and not one word about football (as played on the grass not in financial reports), funny that. Why no link to the article that you spending quite a few paragraphs demolishing? Maybe because that article discussed football and not business where Arsenal have had an undoubted decline? Always easier to beat up a straw-man.

  12. Shevo,
    Exactly, Chelsea will always be able to outbid us and City will always be able to out bid them so we’ll not win with the proven stars. Where we can win is with the unknown talent and we have the master of that.

    Fedda
    We used to be one of the top payers (there or there abouts) in the premier league (before Chelsea and then Man City came and distorted the game) so our top players were not regularly looking elsewhere or having their heads turned by riches on offer. The best chance we have is being patient and waiting for the day we can do a Man Utd and have a large pool of players emerge from the youth system (ie Nevilles, Becham, Scholes… all at once). Even Fergie admitted this was more to do with luck than judgement.

  13. Hey Rupert, if Liverpool had the money they would spend it on world class players, what like Carrol £35mil & Downing £20mil ? Liverpools wage bill is higher than ours, and they spend more on transfers, (commercial revenue being much higher than ours at present) they sack manangers and are owned by wealthy indidividuals, yet still can’t seem to finish above us. so the model you advocate works then ?

  14. One piece of information left out of Tony’s article is that, by their own admission, Liverpool were within days of bankcruptcy when Fenway bought them out a couple of years ago. That’s how badly managed they had been and situations like that will be taken into account when they try to borrow money to develop their stadium. It’s also true to say that they don’t really need more basic price seats at Anfield, they need premium/corporate seating which is difficult to incorporate into an existing structure, difficult to sell in a recession and nothing like as popular in Liverpool as they are in London.
    As with the American owners at Villa and Sunderland I have a feeling that those at Liverpool are now beginning to realise the realities of what they have taken on. As they said at the time FFP is absolutely vital to them and they will do everything they can to make it happen.

  15. At the end of the day fans ex players the media can not be all wrong money plays a big part in football and arsenals philosophy of not spending will have to change

  16. @Mandy Dodd
    Great link, thanks for that. I guess it takes an “outsider” to see the truth of the situation. Maybe those on the “inside” could do with taking a step back and viewing the whole situation objectively.

  17. @john
    Of course money plays a big part in football as it does in all walks of life. However how many of us dream of living like the Beckhams and shopping in Harrods but have to settle with living in suburbia and shopping in Marks and Spencers. That’s the reality of how things are right now when it comes to competing at the top end of the EPL. You cut your cloth and spend within your means.
    Much as we may not like it that’s how it is and we as fans need to get behind our club and stop listening to ex players who quite honestly couldn’t give a fuck about Arsenal as long as the media keeps paying them to spout their bollox..that is unless you want us to end up like Leeds, Rangers Pompey or even Birmingham. All of who have spent fortunes to win a trophy but now wish they could be back with the big boys instead of languishing in the lower leagues whilst they try to pay off their huge debts. You may want that for my club but I certainly don’t.

  18. @Stuart..cheers mate
    I just don’t know which planet some fans live on. Much as it frustrates us that we’ve not won A trophy in 8 years, it hasn’t been through lack trying but more through some players not having the guts to play for the shirt rather than their bank balances. The sooner performance related pay is introduced the sooner we will see players performing to their full potential rather than sit on the bench clocking up the ££££’s like a few we have and can’t get rid of right now. Chelski and Shitty can afford to swallow these losses, we can’t and that’s why I fully agree with AW philsophy even if Im not happy with how the team is performing at the moment.
    COYG

  19. @ Stuart…: “Where we can win is with the unknown talent and we have the master of that.”

    Who is the Master of Unknown Talent? Arsene Wenger?

    When Wenger won with AFC, his sides were full with known talent (signed and/or inherited). Players included previous winners of: World Cups, Euros, Champions League, Uefa Cups and Super Cups, Olympic Gold, ACN, World Club Championships, Former League and Cup winners in France, England, Scotland, Holland, Italy, Brazil etc all BEFORE working with Wenger at Arsenal. Players that were full internationals and/or had played at top European clubs or in top leagues before. Even then up and coming players like Anelka, Ljunberg, Reyes etc were not unknowns but (like Walcott and Ox etc)already highly rated youngsters tracked by many big clubs.

    Yes he did well in assembling these teams, extending and/or improving careers, rescuing players that may have stalled or last their way and given then the platform to perform and achieve greatness, and should be given full credit for that. However, this myth of Wenger being the master of unearthing unknowns and turning them into gems and building winning teams primarily or significantly that way, is just that, a myth.

    He built winning teams full of experienced players (also generally pretty big/physical chaps) who were accustomed to well, winning things, before ever working Wenger at AFC. Of course there lies the odd exception like say a Kolo Toure, but players of those ilk represent the vast minority in his winning sides.

    Not exactly but somewhat similar to his time at Monaco, after winning early by managing in a more conventional way (i.e. assembling teams of proven players accustomed to winning), he then used that capital, trust and goodwill he rightfully earned, to venture much more into the young/unproven player route, and like then with Monaco, since the disassembling of his last great AFC winning side in ’05 things haven’t gone as well, and most of the real unknowns have not turned out so great, and the failure rate of developing or scooping true unknown players from scratch is alarming.

    Not sure how this myth continues to exist.

    Not to mention in this globally aware market and in this technological information age, players don’t stay “unknown” that long, further hampering any perceived or real (I disagree) mastery Wenger may have once had in that realm.

    So no, that’s not the way we can compete and win. We can do so by being more efficient with our resources i.e. instead of having such a ridiculously bloated squad and contingent of professionals including a dozen average/mediocre players on the wage bill who never/hardly play, use the same or even less money to invest in 2/3 genuine stars (that includes retaining them when they are already here) and pay them at their deserved rate (no more of this pay equity by design stuff) and prioritize winning again and not just achieving 4th, thereby making the club more attractive to top players if they know we are serious about winning. Also stop giving youngsters (and squad players and repeatedly injured players) big contracts they won’t arguably get elsewhere, and constantly improving them before they have proven anything. We have the resources to invest in proven talent and a winning method if we chose to restructure how we do things. Going the unknown players route is not only a myth because it hasn’t worked before, but certainly won’t work in today’s environment.

    It’s a matter of ideological choice really, not financial reality.

  20. @ Shevo re: @Stuart..cheers mate
    I just don’t know which planet some fans live on. Much as it frustrates us that we’ve not won A trophy in 8 years, it hasn’t been through lack trying but more through some players not having the guts to play for the shirt rather than their bank balances. The sooner performance related pay is introduced the sooner we will see players performing to their full potential rather than sit on the bench clocking up the ££££’s like a few we have and can’t get rid of right now. Chelski and Shitty can afford to swallow these losses, we can’t and that’s why I fully agree with AW philsophy even if Im not happy with how the team is performing at the moment.
    COYG
    ..”

    Do you not spot the irony and contradictions in your post. You say you support Wenger’s philosophy and extol its virtues and then complain about players not performing to their full potential and linking it to instituting performance related pay, without realizing that Wenger’s (stated) philosophy of as close to pay equity as possible to promote “harmony” (which means artificially inflating earnings of players who are average or not proven anything yet, and holding down the earnings of top players) has resulted in the very problem you chastise (not to mention it hasn’t achieved its stated goal of harmony over the years).

    You’re right we can’t afford to swallow these loses that’s why AW’s philosophy in this realm is a proven failure. It has resulted in top players want to go to win and earn more elsewhere, and mediocre players not wanting to leave (even if they don’t or hardly play) because they know they won’t earn near as much elsewhere. It’s resulted in complacent kids earning far too much far too early, and knowing that they can get away with poor performances because the Manager’s (stated) philosophies include not wanting to bring in proven players (even admitting it may cost games by doing so, and it is easier to do so) because it “kills their development”. Would it not be better to make it harder for them to get to the top by working hard to displace the veterans in front of them, and in the process learning from genuine top players? And weeding out the youngsters who aren’t good enough, instead of paving the easy road for them and trying them all for so long to see if they are good enough? All it will result in and has resulted in, is kids who have everything too easy, and the one or two who are actually good will want to leave because they are motivated by winning and earning more elsewhere as mature top players.

    With all due respect, The irony in your post is stark. Wenger’s philosophy is the cause of the problem that you are talking about, not the solution to it.

  21. It’s about the long game. At this stage, I can’t see us assembling as good a team of 25 players as Chelsea, Man City or Man U. We couldn’t afford it. But, we could assemble as good a team of say, 16 players, and fill the ranks with younger Arsenal bred players. With any luck we could compete with them. People forget that the Invincibles had good luck vis-a-vis injuries that year.

    The critiques about less able players being overpaid is a reasonable one and we are basically approaching the end of that cycle as the players see out their contracts knowing they will sign on for much less elsewhere. However, I can understand why we got in that quagmire while the Emirates was being built. We wanted to tie down promising youngsters and attract new ones because we new we would be in a money pinch and we did it with a flat pay scale. That time is ending and we should be able to target one or two high end players to provide a cutting edge to high quality if somewhat predictable squad. I see the holding of the line with Walcott as evidence of this. I am certain if we had a true Messi, Iniesta talent of the same age as Walcott, we would shell out the money. (IMO, RvP has the talent but his age and injury history worked against us shelling out the big bucks AND we had not yet renegotiated our deals)

    I would like to win everything, every year but challenging for it every year and winning occasionally may be what we are looking at. And, that’s not too bad.

  22. I think we all know that Arsenal have not performed well this season and that this might be the season we fall out of the top 4.

    I would like to see a sensible discussion on this site about things that could/should be done to improve the performances on the pitch.

    Tony or Walter surely you must have some sensible suggestions in this respect. I would like to hear what they are.

  23. Liverpool FC, a once great club, now struggling to reach the not so high heights of Arsenal FC let alone challenge the might of Man City for the Premiership title. Although Brendan Rodgers is now having a positive impact at the club and I expect Liverpool FC to improve their position in the second half of the season.

    Competing financially with the big boys may have short term gain but in the long term, it has the potential to destroy.

    Liverpool dabbled, there still counting the cost of that wasted £100m kitty. Leeds United once lived the dream, only for reality to kick-in come dawn. Portsmouth basically purchased one FA cup in return for slow death.

    In 2011/12 Aston Villa thought it a good idea to pay-out 91% of their turnover on wages. Reality has now kicked-in at Villa Park too, they have since changed that approach and are now forced to chance their arm with a decent crop of less expensive youngsters, but relegation looms large.

    Arsenals prudent financial approach doesn’t appease everyone but competing with the footballing heavyweights has become nigh-on imposable.

  24. A.Stewart
    Yes, I mean Wenger.
    Well I’d certainly not heard of most of his signings prior to them being signed. Other teams go for household names. Now go and bury your head back in the sand

  25. JRR

    Most on here think we probably think we are having a good season so far.

    Remember we were 3rd for 5 minutes a couple of weeks ago !

    Also remember, we have the ‘Kroenke Cash Mountain’ and won’t end up like Leeds or Portsmouth !

    Also remember, we’ll be in a great position in 2 years when the FFP comes in !

    I think there are now 000’s who feel the club is predictable, stagnant & stale, many who were even backing Wenger at the start of this season.

  26. @Stewart
    Stuart took the words right out of my mouth pal.,Viera, Petit, Anelka, Llungberg were pretty much unknowns before they joined AFC( most of whom won World/European cups AFTER joining Arsenal pal) Even Henry was just a squad player before Wenger took him from Juventus and turned him into our greatest ever forward. He even took players like Adams, Keown, Dixon and Winterburn and turned them into the greatest back four of all time (IMO). We even managed to buy established stars like Pires, Overmars, Gilberto etc. The only difference between then and now is that the playing field was more level until Abramovich and more recently the Arabs came in and fucked with players and clubs heads by paying silly money to any established star to play for them. Bit like what Rangers did in Scotland. Now look at them. Even Manure is up to their necks in debt trying to compete with these petro-dollar run clubs.
    It’s an unfortunate fact we can’t mate. So yes I do agree with Wengers policy as it has kept us competing at the top table whilst we paid off our debts used to build a new stadium to help secure our future. You can moan about the wages we have paid to some of our young stars but that’s nothing compared to what Chelski and Shitty are shelling out to similar players just to try and stop them moving to clubs like ours. And lets put it this way I’m sure you wasn’t moaning when players like Arshavin or Chamakh joined on the salary they’re on now. The Mancs and Chelski have a few but they have gazillions that can swallow this. Wenger could go out and buy big names . He’s done so before so isn’t afraid to do so. Only difference is he will only pay what he THINKS a player is worth and yes he may get it wrong sometime but you name me one manager who hasn’t . Even Fergie. So you can knock Wenger or fans like Untold, Stuart or me but I’d know who I’d back to run my club to win more trophies and it ain’t you.

  27. @Shevo

    Well said mate.

    @JRR

    You made a sensible request; unfortunately it was picked up by the xenophobic double talking Black Scarfed Doubledoomer – sorry Doublegooner – who pollutes this site on occasion – but your request to Walter/Tony to initiate a debate on the Arsenal performance is valid and I hope they respond.

  28. @Stuart, wow, that link was a nice find. Apparently we are after Abdellaoue who plays up-front for Hannover and Wengers gonna turn him in to a centre back.
    Whilst Djourou’s apprenticeship at Arsenal has come to an end and he’s now considered the complete forward.

  29. @Stuart

    Great link, (at 11.19pm), old Piles P didn’t know too much about players then or now.

  30. I laughed at the last few sentences of thar ANR piece. just gave me some perspective and what a funny thing hindsight really is.

  31. @sleepinggiant

    “some of our fans, treacherously in my opinion, have accepted the lie that ‘a club like Arsenal should not be competing wike the likes of Chelsea and Man City’. Evil lying BS as we all know”

    I don’t think I have met one fan who holds the view that you described. If what you are trying to drive at is that Arsenal should compete financially with City and Chelsea, and I would add to the point of over extending the club and its stability, then I disagree with you. Is that treacherous?

  32. Some realism and sense posted by A.Stuart, you would do well to read his posts here.

    Tony, have a read at these posts of A.Stuart, it presents a dimension that Untold would do very well to examine and comment on. Lets look on the field of play for a change and question the area where Wenger has 30 years of expertise. Let our contributing analysts examine why we perform the way we do.

  33. Sleeping giant, Reality check, Shevo, lew1234, are also posters who comment on the same issues Tony.

    Lets look on the field of play shall we.

  34. bjt

    Your favourite xenophobe is back polluting this whiter than white site.

    The reason some of you misguided idiots have a problem calling fans like me an ‘AAA’is you’re confused.

    Fans like me are not Arsenal, we are ANTI Your version of how you see the manager & the club.

  35. Correction: should read.

    Fans like me are NOT Anti Arsenal we are ANTI Your version of how you see the manager & the club.

  36. bj

    I don’t drink, although too much longer of Wenger’s socialist nonsense will change that.

  37. Just heard the term ‘Arsenal’s socialist wages ‘ . Really ?
    Seriously ? Realistic wages more likely .
    Thanks for the great links and to the guys/gals of Untold (whom I ,repeat ,I ,call the defenders of the faith ),for the very good points and persuasive arguments .
    To the rest ,thanks for the laughs .May your deluded road to ruin be swift and slippery.May the boulders of common sense, prudence and true knowledge not hinder your descent !
    May the rocks at the bottom be sharp and painful as the realisation of your folly !

  38. @ Stuart @ 5Jan.12.17 am , What no Nelson Vivas ? Inamoto ?
    Stepanovs ? Or Mendez ?

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