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So what is wrong with PL refs…a case study: Moss

by Walter Broeckx

In our series to find out with which ref some teams perform better than average we have referee John Moss next.

But first let me explain in short the average, under and over thing you see in the last row. This is for new readers of course. Regular readers can skip this text and go to the table.

When you see “average” it means that the results of the team in general are not that far away with the results when the ref is in charge. It is in fact what one should hope to see most.

When we see “over” it means that the team in question is doing much better and in some cases much much better than they usual do.

And when you see “under” it means that the team is doing bad compared to their usual win percentage.

As referee Moss is rather new to the PL we must take a lot of his numbers with not just a pinch of salt but with a big bag of salt. I think it speaks for itself that the fewer games you did the less accurate the numbers can be.  But we can only use what we have available in numbers.  However don’t take anything for granted with this ref.

So let us see the results of the teams under referee Moss

Total won draw lost won draw lost Achieving
Arsenal

797

426

212

159

53,45%

26,60%

19,95%

Moss

2

2

0

0

100,00%

0,00%

0,00%

Over
Aston Villa

797

287

249

261

36,01%

31,24%

32,75%

Moss

6

3

0

3

50,00%

0,00%

50,00%

Over
Chelsea

797

414

206

177

51,94%

25,85%

22,21%

Moss

2

1

1

0

50,00%

50,00%

0,00%

Average
Everton

797

282

230

285

35,38%

28,86%

35,76%

Moss

5

3

1

1

60,00%

20,00%

20,00%

Over
Fulham

443

137

128

178

30,93%

28,89%

40,18%

Moss

3

0

0

3

0,00%

0,00%

100,00%

Under
Liverpool

797

389

203

205

48,81%

25,47%

25,72%

Moss

2

0

1

1

0,00%

50,00%

50,00%

Under
Man City

607

226

159

222

37,23%

26,19%

36,57%

Moss

2

2

0

0

100,00%

0,00%

0,00%

Over
MU

797

520

165

112

65,24%

20,70%

14,05%

Moss

1

1

0

0

100,00%

0,00%

0,00%

Over
Newcastle

717

284

192

241

39,61%

26,78%

33,61%

Moss

2

1

0

1

50,00%

0,00%

50,00%

Over
Norwich

227

68

72

87

29,96%

31,72%

38,33%

Moss

13

5

3

5

38,46%

23,08%

38,46%

Over
QPR

227

71

57

99

31,28%

25,11%

43,61%

Moss

9

1

3

5

11,11%

33,33%

55,56%

Under
Reading

101

31

21

49

30,69%

20,79%

48,51%

Moss no games
Southampton

531

155

146

230

29,19%

27,50%

43,31%

Moss

8

3

2

3

37,50%

25,00%

37,50%

Over
Stoke

177

53

54

70

29,94%

30,51%

39,55%

Moss

2

1

0

1

50,00%

0,00%

50,00%

Over
Sunderland

443

119

112

212

26,86%

25,28%

47,86%

Moss no games
Swansea

63

20

21

22

31,75%

33,33%

34,92%

Moss

11

3

5

3

27,27%

45,45%

27,27%

Average
Tottenham

797

307

210

280

38,52%

26,35%

35,13%

Moss

2

1

0

1

50,00%

0,00%

50,00%

Over
WBA

253

62

64

127

24,51%

25,30%

50,20%

Moss

14

10

0

4

71,43%

0,00%

28,57%

Over
West Ham

641

210

164

267

32,76%

25,59%

41,65%

Moss

3

0

1

2

0,00%

33,33%

66,67%

Under
Wigan

291

81

73

137

27,84%

25,09%

47,08%

Moss

7

3

0

4

42,86%

0,00%

57,14%

Over

The first thing I should mention is that at the moment we took our numbers (a few weeks ago) Moss hasn’t done any games involving Reading and Sunderland. I don’t know the reason for this. It might be a coincidence or not. If anyone knows the reason just drop a note in the comment section to keep us informed.

From the other teams there are 9 of them with 5 or less games under his command. With any other ref I would discard those results and say that this is irrelevant. If I did this with Moss…. I almost would have no numbers left. So I will mention them but please read those numbers carefully and don’t jump to hasty conclusions.

So here we go taking out bag of salt and look at the teams who over perform when Moss is the ref.  Arsenal (2), Aston Villa (6), Everton (5), Manchester City (2), Manchester United (1), Newcastle (2), Norwich (13), Southampton (8), Stoke (2), Tottenham (2), WBA (2) and Wigan (7).

The number I mention after each team is the number of games that Moss did with this team at the moment we took the numbers. I would say it is fair to only look at the numbers of teams who have more than 5 teams done with Moss. That are Aston Villa, Norwich, Southampton and Wigan. And a few of those games from from Norwich and Southampton might have been done in the championship. As they went up in the past two seasons this could explain their high win percentage a bit.

If we look at the teams who are more or less doing as their overall average would expect them to do we see that Chelsea(2) and Swansea(11) are the only teams to come close to their average. Chelsea with only 2 games are not really a good thing to measure but Swansea surely is.

And finally if we try to look at teams who under perform a bit we see that we have Fulham (3), Liverpool (2), QPR (9) and West Ham(3).  The number for QPR is the only number we can really take at full value. The other teams might be down to some bad luck or well some bad draws in the games he got with them.

So this ref is very much an unknown quantity in the PL. He did the game between QPR and Arsenal last weekend and it was another game that Arsenal won and QPR lost. So I knew before the game that the ref was not out to do us down. One of our former referee reviewers is wildly enthusiastic about this referee.  Not just for his Arsenal record but for his overall calling of the fouls.

I think it will be interesting to see how the numbers are at the end of next season. If I can find the time I will surely try to repeat this with all the refs. But that is for later.  Now I can only say that the numbers for most teams don’t tell us enough to come to final conclusions to know if a teams does better or worse than average when referee Moss is in charge.

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5 comments to So what is wrong with PL refs…a case study: Moss

  • avatar Adam

    He’s from Sunderland, Tyne & wear, So really, he shouldn’t be doing Newcastle games either.

    Anyone else getting fed up with Northern referee’s coming to London to do our games but no London referee’s to up North and do their games?

  • avatar Adam

    He’s another one from the West Riding area.

    Walter, you would be surprised at the amount of officials from this area.

  • avatar Thundertinygooner

    Surely if some teams achieve under average results others will achieve above average figures. This is simple maths.
    I was at Loftus abroad and thought he performed well and neutrally and looks a promising ref but figures this low can be skewed by one exceptional game or incident.

  • avatar bob

    Questions for early details on how a once beautiful game is being headed toward Fungicide:
    When is Manchester going to host the grand victory celebration at season’s end for all to worship at The Rednose XX? Will it be nationally televised? Will there be several documentaries on the Beeb and Channel Four in Don Fungus’ honour? Will Talkshite devote hours, contests, and hourly 20 pound giveaways for favorite Fergie memories and moments? Will Riley Dean and Webb march at the head of the parade as its unholy trinity? Will RVP precede Rooney in the parade, or will they walk side by side? Will Don Fungus be publicly anointed Lord Football within days of the parade? (As Jimmy Durante said, I got a million of ‘em)
    I’ve also got to fix me pacemaker; the ticker just can’t stand the buildup.

  • avatar Wolfgang

    Have you seen refs who award a penalty against Arsenal in a triumphant mood?For good measure add in those who book Arsenal players.I have never trusted these guys in black and the linemen.
    Imagine this scenario. The gunners are due to play aginst any team challenging for the epl.What’s to stop them booking gunners for fouls,legitimate or otherwise?Then throw in a rc. This is to ensure the gunners will miss a key player in a crucial game. It happened and will happen.
    I don’t know but I remember the 1998-99 season vividly.A number of key gunners went missing in crucial games and needless to say the gunners finish 1 point behind rf.