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What’s wrong with PL refs: a case study. Oliver

by Walter Broeckx

In our series to find out with which ref some teams perform better than average we have referee Michael Oliver next.

But first let me explain in short the average, under and over thing that you will see in the last row. This is for new readers of course. Regular readers can skip this text and go to the table.

When you see “average” it means that the results of the team in general are not that far away with the results when the ref is in charge. It is in fact what one should hope to see most.

When we see “over” it means that the team in question is doing much better and in some cases much much better than they usual do.

And when you see “under” it means that the team is doing bad compared to their usual win percentage.

Just as with Moss we must warn you about the fact that this is a rather new ref and a young one with for some teams a rather low number of games. So once again I warn you to be careful when looking at the stats from this ref.

So let us see the results of the teams under referee Oliver.

Total won draw lost won draw lost Achieving
Arsenal

797

426

212

159

53,45%

26,60%

19,95%

Oliver

6

2

1

3

33,33%

16,67%

50,00%

Under
Aston Villa

797

287

249

261

36,01%

31,24%

32,75%

Oliver

10

3

3

4

30,00%

30,00%

40,00%

Average
Chelsea

797

414

206

177

51,94%

25,85%

22,21%

Oliver

4

2

1

1

50,00%

25,00%

25,00%

Average
Everton

797

282

230

285

35,38%

28,86%

35,76%

Oliver

9

5

3

1

55,56%

33,33%

11,11%

Over
Fulham

443

137

128

178

30,93%

28,89%

40,18%

Oliver

6

1

2

3

16,67%

33,33%

50,00%

Under
Liverpool

797

389

203

205

48,81%

25,47%

25,72%

Oliver

9

5

3

1

55,56%

33,33%

11,11%

Average
Man City

607

226

159

222

37,23%

26,19%

36,57%

Oliver

5

5

0

0

100,00%

0,00%

0,00%

Over
MU

797

520

165

112

65,24%

20,70%

14,05%

Oliver

5

3

1

1

60,00%

20,00%

20,00%

Average
Newcastle

717

284

192

241

39,61%

26,78%

33,61%

Oliver No games
Norwich

227

68

72

87

29,96%

31,72%

38,33%

Oliver

11

3

2

6

27,27%

18,18%

54,55%

Average
QPR

227

71

57

99

31,28%

25,11%

43,61%

Oliver

6

0

3

3

0,00%

50,00%

50,00%

Under
Reading

101

31

21

49

30,69%

20,79%

48,51%

Oliver

7

3

2

2

42,86%

28,57%

28,57%

Over
Southampton

531

155

146

230

29,19%

27,50%

43,31%

Oliver

3

0

1

2

0,00%

33,33%

66,67%

Under
Stoke

177

53

54

70

29,94%

30,51%

39,55%

Oliver

9

4

2

3

44,44%

22,22%

33,33%

Over
Sunderland

443

119

112

212

26,86%

25,28%

47,86%

Oliver No games
Swansea

63

20

21

22

31,75%

33,33%

34,92%

Oliver

6

4

2

0

66,67%

33,33%

0,00%

Over
Tottenham

797

307

210

280

38,52%

26,35%

35,13%

Oliver

6

3

1

2

50,00%

16,67%

33,33%

Over
WBA

253

62

64

127

24,51%

25,30%

50,20%

Oliver

11

3

3

5

27,27%

27,27%

45,45%

Average
West Ham

641

210

164

267

32,76%

25,59%

41,65%

Oliver

5

2

2

1

40,00%

40,00%

20,00%

Average
Wigan

291

81

73

137

27,84%

25,09%

47,08%

Oliver

10

3

4

3

30,00%

40,00%

30,00%

Average

The first thing we see is that ref Oliver doesn’t do Newcastle or Sunderland games. Probably a local boy.  And that leaves us with 18 teams to look at.

First let us look at the teams who over perform when ref Oliver is around. Everton, Manchester City (5), Reading, Stoke, Swansea and Tottenham are the teams who do better than usual. I put a (5) after the name of Manchester City. This is to indicate that the other teams have had him more than 5 games and that we can take the numbers as they are.  That are 6 teams who do better than usual when he is in charge.

Let us check the teams who do average when he is around. Aston Villa, Chelsea (4), Liverpool, Manchester United (5), Norwich, WBA, West Ham (5) and Wigan. That is 8 teams of the 18 he does who can be considered as doing average.

And who are the under performing teams? We have Arsenal, Fulham and QPR with each 6 games played under him. And we also have Southampton but he only refereed them for 3 games when we took our numbers. So it is difficult to judge this result completely for the latter team. The other all London teams don’t do that well. Tottenham being the only London club to over achieve in these stats from this ref. So 4 teams under achieving and Arsenal being one of them.

And if you allow me to point not just at the low win percentage but also point you at the unexplainable high loss percentage when ref Oliver is in charge it shows that he is not very favourable to have from an Arsenal point of view. Not only we don’t win as much as can be expected but we also lose almost 3 times as much when he is around.

Most Arsenal supporters who do their homework know that Dean and Probert are the bogey refs but this ref isn’t that far of being one. So something to keep in mind in the future and to have a closer look when we do the end of the year calculations.

The most detailed study of Premier League Refs ever:The referees 2013.

2 comments to What’s wrong with PL refs: a case study. Oliver

  • avatar Florian

    This is a dangerous young man.

  • I remember him reffing an Arsenal game against Aston Villa. He was terrible, we lost 2-1 I think and there were several dodgy calls. Watch the 12 minute highlights on Arsenal Player. Think it was 1 or two seasons ago.