What is wrong with PL refs : a case study. Probert

by Walter Broeckx

In our series to find out with which ref some teams perform better than average we have referee Lee Probert next.

But first let me explain in short the average, under and over thing you see in the last row of the table below. This is for new readers of course. Regular readers can skip this text and go to the table.

When you see “average” it means that the results of the team in general are not that far away with the results when the ref is in charge. It is in fact what one should hope to see most.

When we see “over” it means that the team in question is doing much better and in some cases much much better than they usual do.

And when you see “under” it means that the team is doing bad compared to their usual win percentage.

So let us see the results of the teams under referee Probert

 

	Total	won	draw	lost	won	draw	lost	Achieving
Arsenal	797	426	212	159	53,45%	26,60%	19,95%
Probert	8	2	3	3	25,00%	37,50%	37,50%	Under
Aston Villa	797	287	249	261	36,01%	31,24%	32,75%
Probert	16	7	6	3	43,75%	37,50%	18,75%	Average
Chelsea	797	414	206	177	51,94%	25,85%	22,21%
Probert	9	7	1	1	77,78%	11,11%	11,11%	Over
Everton	797	282	230	285	35,38%	28,86%	35,76%
Probert	15	8	5	2	53,33%	33,33%	13,33%	Over
Fulham	443	137	128	178	30,93%	28,89%	40,18%
Probert	11	4	2	5	36,36%	18,18%	45,45%	Average
Liverpool	797	389	203	205	48,81%	25,47%	25,72%
Probert	13	9	0	4	69,23%	0,00%	30,77%	Over
Man City	607	226	159	222	37,23%	26,19%	36,57%
Probert	12	8	2	2	66,67%	16,67%	16,67%	Over
MU	797	520	165	112	65,24%	20,70%	14,05%
Probert	8	7	1	0	87,50%	12,50%	0,00%	Over
Newcastle	717	284	192	241	39,61%	26,78%	33,61%
Probert	8	1	4	3	12,50%	50,00%	37,50%	Under
Norwich	227	68	72	87	29,96%	31,72%	38,33%
Probert	12	6	2	4	50,00%	16,67%	33,33%	Over
QPR	227	71	57	99	31,28%	25,11%	43,61%
Probert	12	4	3	5	33,33%	25,00%	41,67%	Average
Reading	101	31	21	49	30,69%	20,79%	48,51%
Probert	9	2	2	5	22,22%	22,22%	55,56%	Under
Southampton	531	155	146	230	29,19%	27,50%	43,31%
Probert	10	5	2	3	50,00%	20,00%	30,00%	Over
Stoke	177	53	54	70	29,94%	30,51%	39,55%
Probert	19	11	1	7	57,89%	5,26%	36,84%	Over
Sunderland	443	119	112	212	26,86%	25,28%	47,86%
Probert	13	4	3	6	30,77%	23,08%	46,15%	Average
Swansea	63	20	21	22	31,75%	33,33%	34,92%
Probert	12	7	3	2	58,33%	25,00%	16,67%	Over
Tottenham	797	307	210	280	38,52%	26,35%	35,13%
Probert	14	3	5	6	21,43%	35,71%	42,86%	Under
WBA	253	62	64	127	24,51%	25,30%	50,20%
Probert	14	5	2	7	35,71%	14,29%	50,00%	Over
West Ham	641	210	164	267	32,76%	25,59%	41,65%
Probert	11	4	1	6	36,36%	9,09%	54,55%	Average
Wigan	291	81	73	137	27,84%	25,09%	47,08%
Probert	17	2	3	12	11,76%	17,65%	70,59%	Under

First remark is that Probert can do all the teams. He should have no special relation with any team.

Let us take a look at the teams who do better than usual when he is around. Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Norwich, Southampton, Stoke, Swansea and WBA are the lucky teams when he is refereeing.  That is 10 teams of the 20 who do better and in some cases much much better than their average win  % might expect them to do.  Manchester United is yet to lose a game when Probert is around.

Let us move on to the teams who do rather averagely when he is around. Aston Villa, Fulham, QPR, Sunderland and West Ham are the teams who have almost the same win  % with or without Probert on  the field. That are 5 teams.

And who are the teams that should fear the day they see his name appointed to one of their games? Arsenal supporters who follow us a bit and who follow the refs will  not be surprised to see that Arsenal is amongst the teams who do bad when he is in charge. Other teams are Newcastle, Reading, Tottenham and Wigan.  He somehow doesn’t seem to like North London teams this ref.

His record for Arsenal is compared to their overall league win % the worst of them all. He has had history with Wenger in the past (MU) he has made ridiculous decisions against Arsenal (Wigan, Fulham,….).  Against WBA he didn’t let Vermaelen on the field for many minutes when Mertesacker was sent off and the way he was enjoying the anger of Bould and Wenger when Bould gave his opinion about it showed how he enjoyed making the Arsenal training staff angry.

Statistically speaking ref Probert is a walking disaster for Arsenal. We know Dean better as we see him more but believe me Probert is as bad if not even worse than Dean for Arsenal.

I really would like to know why he hates Wenger that much as I do think it is something personal after Wenger kicking a water bottle at Old Trafford and Probert trying to send him to the stand and the scenes with Wenger standing there at the top of a part of Old Trafford in some kind of Jesus Christ impersonation with his hands wide open, asking Probert: why are you crucifying me?

Later on everyone agreed that the reaction of Probert to have send Wenger sent off was over the top and the PGMOL had to apologise in name of the ref and the 4th official on that day. To complete the story: the ref was Dean and the 4th official was as said before ref Probert. I wonder how much is still playing a part when he is around an Arsenal game? If so I think the PGMOL should take action and remove him from Arsenal games.

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The most detailed study of Premier League Refs ever:The referees 2013.