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What is wrong with PL refs : a case study. Probert

by Walter Broeckx

In our series to find out with which ref some teams perform better than average we have referee Lee Probert next.

But first let me explain in short the average, under and over thing you see in the last row of the table below. This is for new readers of course. Regular readers can skip this text and go to the table.

When you see “average” it means that the results of the team in general are not that far away with the results when the ref is in charge. It is in fact what one should hope to see most.

When we see “over” it means that the team in question is doing much better and in some cases much much better than they usual do.

And when you see “under” it means that the team is doing bad compared to their usual win percentage.

So let us see the results of the teams under referee Probert

 

Total won draw lost won draw lost Achieving
Arsenal

797

426

212

159

53,45%

26,60%

19,95%

Probert

8

2

3

3

25,00%

37,50%

37,50%

Under
Aston Villa

797

287

249

261

36,01%

31,24%

32,75%

Probert

16

7

6

3

43,75%

37,50%

18,75%

Average
Chelsea

797

414

206

177

51,94%

25,85%

22,21%

Probert

9

7

1

1

77,78%

11,11%

11,11%

Over
Everton

797

282

230

285

35,38%

28,86%

35,76%

Probert

15

8

5

2

53,33%

33,33%

13,33%

Over
Fulham

443

137

128

178

30,93%

28,89%

40,18%

Probert

11

4

2

5

36,36%

18,18%

45,45%

Average
Liverpool

797

389

203

205

48,81%

25,47%

25,72%

Probert

13

9

0

4

69,23%

0,00%

30,77%

Over
Man City

607

226

159

222

37,23%

26,19%

36,57%

Probert

12

8

2

2

66,67%

16,67%

16,67%

Over
MU

797

520

165

112

65,24%

20,70%

14,05%

Probert

8

7

1

0

87,50%

12,50%

0,00%

Over
Newcastle

717

284

192

241

39,61%

26,78%

33,61%

Probert

8

1

4

3

12,50%

50,00%

37,50%

Under
Norwich

227

68

72

87

29,96%

31,72%

38,33%

Probert

12

6

2

4

50,00%

16,67%

33,33%

Over
QPR

227

71

57

99

31,28%

25,11%

43,61%

Probert

12

4

3

5

33,33%

25,00%

41,67%

Average
Reading

101

31

21

49

30,69%

20,79%

48,51%

Probert

9

2

2

5

22,22%

22,22%

55,56%

Under
Southampton

531

155

146

230

29,19%

27,50%

43,31%

Probert

10

5

2

3

50,00%

20,00%

30,00%

Over
Stoke

177

53

54

70

29,94%

30,51%

39,55%

Probert

19

11

1

7

57,89%

5,26%

36,84%

Over
Sunderland

443

119

112

212

26,86%

25,28%

47,86%

Probert

13

4

3

6

30,77%

23,08%

46,15%

Average
Swansea

63

20

21

22

31,75%

33,33%

34,92%

Probert

12

7

3

2

58,33%

25,00%

16,67%

Over
Tottenham

797

307

210

280

38,52%

26,35%

35,13%

Probert

14

3

5

6

21,43%

35,71%

42,86%

Under
WBA

253

62

64

127

24,51%

25,30%

50,20%

Probert

14

5

2

7

35,71%

14,29%

50,00%

Over
West Ham

641

210

164

267

32,76%

25,59%

41,65%

Probert

11

4

1

6

36,36%

9,09%

54,55%

Average
Wigan

291

81

73

137

27,84%

25,09%

47,08%

Probert

17

2

3

12

11,76%

17,65%

70,59%

Under

First remark is that Probert can do all the teams. He should have no special relation with any team.

Let us take a look at the teams who do better than usual when he is around. Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Norwich, Southampton, Stoke, Swansea and WBA are the lucky teams when he is refereeing.  That is 10 teams of the 20 who do better and in some cases much much better than their average win  % might expect them to do.  Manchester United is yet to lose a game when Probert is around.

Let us move on to the teams who do rather averagely when he is around. Aston Villa, Fulham, QPR, Sunderland and West Ham are the teams who have almost the same win  % with or without Probert on  the field. That are 5 teams.

And who are the teams that should fear the day they see his name appointed to one of their games? Arsenal supporters who follow us a bit and who follow the refs will  not be surprised to see that Arsenal is amongst the teams who do bad when he is in charge. Other teams are Newcastle, Reading, Tottenham and Wigan.  He somehow doesn’t seem to like North London teams this ref.

His record for Arsenal is compared to their overall league win % the worst of them all. He has had history with Wenger in the past (MU) he has made ridiculous decisions against Arsenal (Wigan, Fulham,….).  Against WBA he didn’t let Vermaelen on the field for many minutes when Mertesacker was sent off and the way he was enjoying the anger of Bould and Wenger when Bould gave his opinion about it showed how he enjoyed making the Arsenal training staff angry.

Statistically speaking ref Probert is a walking disaster for Arsenal. We know Dean better as we see him more but believe me Probert is as bad if not even worse than Dean for Arsenal.

I really would like to know why he hates Wenger that much as I do think it is something personal after Wenger kicking a water bottle at Old Trafford and Probert trying to send him to the stand and the scenes with Wenger standing there at the top of a part of Old Trafford in some kind of Jesus Christ impersonation with his hands wide open, asking Probert: why are you crucifying me?

Later on everyone agreed that the reaction of Probert to have send Wenger sent off was over the top and the PGMOL had to apologise in name of the ref and the 4th official on that day. To complete the story: the ref was Dean and the 4th official was as said before ref Probert. I wonder how much is still playing a part when he is around an Arsenal game? If so I think the PGMOL should take action and remove him from Arsenal games.

———————————

The most detailed study of Premier League Refs ever:The referees 2013.

 

 

7 comments to What is wrong with PL refs : a case study. Probert

  • avatar AL

    He’s obviously biased against Arsenal, and that makes him a man that can be relied on in pgmol’s eyes. Read the other link saying Halsey is writing a book, let’s hope he’s man enough to expose the dirt.

  • avatar AL

    Oh, cheers Stuart, didn’t realise it was available for pre-order. Hope its explosive, heard this book-writing stuff angered the pgmol & might have hastened his departure.

  • avatar Sav from Australia

    I just looked up the Halsey story – did not know he was retiring. Apparently he did not give the PGMOL their required 3 months notice, gave them only a day or two notice instead. He also did not let them know he was writing a book and that he is going to be the referee expert for BT Sport next season. That sounds like a bit of a breakup between Halsey and Riley, eh?

    As a non-UK resident, could someone please explain the significance of BT Sport outbidding ESPN – Sky is still showing matches as well. What will change? I know ESPN has an almost universal hatred of Arsenal, so would BT Sport be a good thing to help viewers gain a more balanced viewpoint?

  • avatar Sav from Australia

    The ESPN ‘soccer’ pundits I mean, not ESPN as a corporation, hate Arsenal.

  • avatar Stuart

    Sav,

    While I’m no expert in the recent BT awarding of the selected games, I do know that with BT a subscription to the TV channel is not required provided you take out their internet package. The trouble with the ESPN offering was that not only did you have to take out Sky but you also then had to pay a further additional subscription for ESPN.

  • avatar Sav from Australia

    Thanks Stuart. That sounds like more people might have access to more matches. And if the referee expert on BT happens to not be kissing arse to Mike Riley anymore – if that is the case – maybe there will be a change in how the general public is sold on incorret referee decisions.