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What is wrong with PL refs: a case study – Swarbrick

by Walter Broeckx

In our series to find out with which ref some teams perform better than average, we have referee Swarbrick next.

But first let me explain in short the average, under and over thing you see in the last row. This is for new readers of course. Regular readers can skip this text and go to the table.

When you see “average” it means that the results of the team in general are not that far away with the results when the ref is in charge. It is in fact what one should hope to see most.

When we see “over” it means that the team in question is doing much better and in some cases much much better than they usual do.

And when you see “under” it means that the team is doing bad compared to their usual win percentage.

One of the problems with Swarbrick we have is that just as with Moss he has  only been in the PL since the season before this. So for most teams we only have a few games covered and this makes the numbers more difficult to interpret. We will give you the numbers of the games he refereed in a moment.  But do remember that when we have 5 or lesser games for a ref with a certain team the result is not really reliable at all.

But we can only use what we have.

So let us see the results of the teams under referee Swarbrick.

Total won draw lost won draw lost Achieving
Arsenal

797

426

212

159

53,45%

26,60%

19,95%

Swarbrick

2

2

0

0

100,00%

0,00%

0,00%

Over
Aston Villa

797

287

249

261

36,01%

31,24%

32,75%

Swarbrick

6

1

3

2

16,67%

50,00%

33,33%

Under
Chelsea

797

414

206

177

51,94%

25,85%

22,21%

Swarbrick

2

2

0

0

100,00%

0,00%

0,00%

Over
Everton

797

282

230

285

35,38%

28,86%

35,76%

Swarbrick

4

2

2

0

50,00%

50,00%

0,00%

Over
Fulham

443

137

128

178

30,93%

28,89%

40,18%

Swarbrick

2

0

2

0

0,00%

100,00%

0,00%

Under
Liverpool

797

389

203

205

48,81%

25,47%

25,72%

Swarbrick

3

1

0

2

33,33%

0,00%

66,67%

Under
Man City

607

226

159

222

37,23%

26,19%

36,57%

Swarbrick

2

1

0

1

50,00%

0,00%

50,00%

Over
MU

797

520

165

112

65,24%

20,70%

14,05%

Swarbrick no games
Newcastle

717

284

192

241

39,61%

26,78%

33,61%

Swarbrick

4

3

1

0

75,00%

25,00%

0,00%

Over
Norwich

227

68

72

87

29,96%

31,72%

38,33%

Swarbrick

8

2

2

3

25,00%

25,00%

37,50%

Average
QPR

227

71

57

99

31,28%

25,11%

43,61%

Swarbrick

11

4

4

3

36,36%

36,36%

27,27%

Average
Reading

101

31

21

49

30,69%

20,79%

48,51%

Swarbrick

5

2

0

3

40,00%

0,00%

60,00%

Over
Southampton

531

155

146

230

29,19%

27,50%

43,31%

Swarbrick no games
Stoke

177

53

54

70

29,94%

30,51%

39,55%

Swarbrick

5

1

4

0

20,00%

80,00%

0,00%

Under
Sunderland

443

119

112

212

26,86%

25,28%

47,86%

Swarbrick

8

6

1

1

75,00%

12,50%

12,50%

Over
Swansea

63

20

21

22

31,75%

33,33%

34,92%

Swarbrick

6

2

1

3

33,33%

16,67%

50,00%

Average
Tottenham

797

307

210

280

38,52%

26,35%

35,13%

Swarbrick

2

1

1

0

50,00%

50,00%

0,00%

Over
WBA

253

62

64

127

24,51%

25,30%

50,20%

Swarbrick

9

7

0

2

77,78%

0,00%

22,22%

Over
West Ham

641

210

164

267

32,76%

25,59%

41,65%

Swarbrick

5

3

0

2

60,00%

0,00%

40,00%

Over
Wigan

291

81

73

137

27,84%

25,09%

47,08%

Swarbrick

2

0

0

2

0,00%

0,00%

100,00%

Under

At the time of taking the numbers we noticed that Swarbrick hasn’t done any games involving Manchester United and Southampton.  Even if this has changed by now it will only be for one game so not reliable at all. We will only look at the other 18 teams in this table.

So who are the teams who do better than usual when he is around? Arsenal (2), Chelsea (2), Everton (4), Manchester City (2), Newcastle (4), Reading (5), Sunderland, Tottenham(2), WBA and West Ham(5).  That is 10 teams but as you can see from the numbers  most of the clubs have only 2 games under his guidance and the other teams are also rather low in the numbers. The only one where you could say that they are doing rather well, based on more than 5 games are Sunderland and WBA.

Let us try to see if there are teams who come close to their average score.  And we find Norwich, QPR and Swansea. And all of them have more than 5 games covered so we could take the numbers and think that he is not really influential on the final outcome of their games in the long run.

And now who are the teams who don’t perform up to their usual standard? We have Aston Villa, Fulham (2), Liverpool (3), Stoke (5) and Wigan (2). Only Aston Villa has had him more than 5 games. For the other teams we can only look at the numbers and cannot really draw any permanent conclusions.

Just as with Moss we should wait at least another season before we can see real patterns emerging. Now it is too much guess work. But don’t worry we will try to have a look at these numbers later on.

For the moment we can only use what we have on this ref. From an Arsenal point he didn’t do too badly but after we took the numbers he did the game between Arsenal and Everton. A bit of a kick fest from Everton and not really handled well by the ref who was afraid to give a second yellow card after half an hour play against Everton.  But this result still means that Arsenal are over achieving when he is in charge. Maybe just a bad day at the office.

The most detailed study of Premier League Refs ever:The referees 2013.

The books…

The sites from the same team…

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