If we had lost the last 134 games at Old Traff would that make us more or less likely to lose this one?

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By Bulldog Drummond

It’s been a few days of the media falling over themselves in an attempt to examine Arsenal’s accounts.   Typical was the statement in the Telegraph that “Despite the large reserves [£159m], the club did make a relatively small loss of £3.4 million for the six month financial period until Nov 30, 2015.  

A curious statement that because the amount in cash reserves doesn’t directly affect the loss.  Continuous losses will affect the reserves since the reserves will be used up paying for the losses, but not the other way around.  

They also say Arsenal have £70m to spend but they don’t really say how they got to that point… which leaves the suspicion that the “calculation” is just set down in order to give the “Transfans” (those six or seven people on Twitter who don’t come to games and who upon seeing a bad result threaten to support Leicester) something to argue about.

Of course the media are also making a lot out of the fact that “Arsenal have won none and lost six of their last eight Premier League trips to Old Trafford.”   But such stats are always the same when relating to teams near the top; all runs go on for a while (otherwise they wouldn’t be runs) and all runs come to an end sometimes (otherwise they would just be reality).

So we don’t talk about the sun having risen in the east for the past 4.543 billion years and then describe it as a “run”.  A “run” has a fair chance of coming to an end and going the other way.

Runs are interesting – which is why I often quote them – but they don’t actually tell us much.   We had drawn three and lost five of our last eight Premier League games against Man U, and then hammered them to bits at Arsenal Stadium, as it was called at the Champions League game – and I rather like that name, so I’ll use it.

Here’s another one, “Arsenal have dropped seven points from winning positions away from home, the joint-most in the Premier League along with Man Utd.”   So either the run continues, or like all runs sometime or other, it comes to an end.

In which case runs mean nothing.

Want another?

Arsenal have kept five clean sheets in the last eight Premier League matches.   That’s not bad going at all for a club with a useless defence, or, as one correspondent put it the other day, a club which “everyone knows desperately needs a defensive midfielder.”

And another…

Manchester U have scored fewer goals after 26 league games than in any season since 1989-90.  Oh yes and they have earned fewer points after 26 games this season than by this stage in any other PL season.

And Man U are winless in their last five games against London opposition, drawing the last four.

Now there will be someone of course who will throw back at me the “you can prove anything with statistics” slogan, but as I am sure you have fully appreciated, I am not proving anything.  Rather I am trying to show that these sequence figures are meaningless because all sequences eventually come to an end.

If they don’t they are just reality (the sun always rises in the east) or runs (Man U are winless in their last five games against a London team).

But still people want more and more and more and…

Arsenal have won two of their last seven Premier League away matches.  Before that we won ten in 12 away games in the League.

And here’s a really crazy one.  Man U have scored 995 goals at Very Old Trafford in the Premier League so will be going all out to score five and make the 1000 at home to Arsenal.

Or not as the case might be.

Actually we can keep going with this for ever and a day.   Because 21% of the goal scoring attempts made by Arsenal in Premier League matches have been from beyond the box, which is the smallest number in the League this season.   So maybe we should shoot from outside the box more.  Or maybe shooting from outside the box only happens when players are feeling insecure about their ability to score.

But hey, this wouldn’t be a weekend with Arsenal, without a story of disruption, and this weekend it is that Arsenal are so fed up with Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain they will sell him.   But read the story clearly and it says, “it is thought…”  But thought by whom?   As in, “It is thought by the maniac who lives at the far end of the village I live in that aliens have taken over the Premier League in order to fix betting syndicates on Alpha Centuri III.”

The Ox is out for between six and eight weeks with a knee injury.  The rumour is that Chelsea tried to sign him last season – but Arsenal declined.

Listening to all the chit chat Mr Wenger said, “I agree that our goals have dried up seriously and we have to find a solution,” and reports in the ever unreliable media is that he is looking to drop Giroud and put Danny in the position, with Theo and Alexis either side.

As for Man U in recent times they have won against Liverpool, lost to Southampton, won against Stoke, drawn with  Chelsea and lost to relegation chasing Sunderland.
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So what of the team?
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I’ll go for
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Cech
Bellerin   Koscielny   Mertersacker   Monreal
Coquelin   Ramsey
Alexis   Ozil   Welbeck
Giroud or Walcott
 But as I said above, one could also make a case for Welbeck in the number 9 position.  So we could have Welbeck and Walcott swapping positions as time goes along.
 .
Man U have significant disciplinary problems, having got 45 yellows so far this season (Arsenal have 28), but as the referee preview showed, they will have nothing to worry about in this game, having a sound XIIth man in the middle.
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There’s not much of a beach along the Manchester Ship Canal, but doing the best they can will be

Ospina, Chambers, Gibbs, Gabriel or Flamini, Elneny, Campbell, Walcott (or Danny).

So who could step up and start scoring lots of goals for us?   Well, if it is anyone I guess it has to be Danny Welbeck playing against the club that let him down.

But let’s go back to all those stats that seemed to suggest that Arsenal have not won at Old Trafford since Richard III was arranging car parks in Leicester.   [I think this comparison is not only inaccurate but also may well prove to be incomprehensible to our overseas readers and those of a non-historical nature. – Editor] 

[Sorry – Bulldog]

[OK don’t let it happen again – Editor]

Past three meetings at Extremely Old Trafford…    

  • Arsenal 3 (Sanchez 2, Ozil) Manchester United 0, League, October 2015.
  • Manchester United 1 (Herrera) Arsenal 1 (Blackett own goal), League, May 2015.
  • Manchester United 1 (Rooney) Arsenal 2 (Monreal, Welbeck), FA Cup, March 2015.

In recent games Man U have won three drawn one, lost two.  Arsenal have won three, drawn two and lost one.

Moving on to injuries, you will know, because it says so in the newspapers and on the radio, that Arsenal have far more injuries than any other team because of Arsene Wenger’s gross incompetence.  Here’s the table at the moment.

# TEAM TOTAL INJURIES
1 Manchester United 14
2 Newcastle United 12
3 Liverpool 8
4 Aston Villa 7
5 Stoke City 7
6 West Ham United 7
7 Sunderland 6
8 Arsenal 5
9 Manchester City 5
10 Tottenham Hotspur 5
11 West Bromwich Albion 5

So now the official word from the BBC  is that Man U are “injury ravaged”.  This is different from Arsenal who generally have an “injury crisis”.   As for Mr W this is what he said,

“It is the key period. We work the whole season for this period and that’s where you’re really tested but it’s where you have an opportunity to show quality, nerves and desire as well.

“Everybody drops points. It is unpredictable. We have rebuilt a good run in the Premier League and we need to continue that.   We need to get over the disappointment of the result [against Barcelona] in the Premier League.”

But hey, we haven’t had any of those silly little statistics for a while.   So here’s another

  • The last time Arsenal scored more than one goal at Very Old Trafford was on 28 August 2011.  We lost 8-2.
  • Alexis Sanchez has failed to score in 19 of his last 22 league appearances.
  • The next goal we score in the League will be the 700th for Mr Wenger.

Anyway, enough of all this.  The Sports Analytics Machine run by the University of Salford gives this match as having a 1-1 scoreline.  I think we might do better.

One last bit of news – Yaya Sanogo scored a hattrick for Charlton yesterday.  Now there’s a thing.

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75 Replies to “If we had lost the last 134 games at Old Traff would that make us more or less likely to lose this one?”

  1. @Bulldog, well done. The game of the day is never played by the figures of statistics suddenly coming to life. Real men (players) do the job on the field of play. I don’t give a toss what the statistics say. Let Mr. Wenger do his job i.e. prep the boys for today. Get his match strategy spot on, let the boys interpret it on the field and let’s own their asses. Period. They don’t seem to be cut for the kind of fight we are capable of giving them if we are up for it. So, let’s go give them hell and create the start of a ‘run’ of nightmares for them at the Very Old Trafford (I so like that very much)!

    After today, Man U are going to be scared of playing against us anywhere. They already are, but the media think they can use their usual tactics to destabilise us. It wont work this time. The boot is in the other foot and guess whose arse is going to get kicked hard. Am licking my lips at the result today. I smell blood… and I think the boys do too.

  2. @Bulldog
    At last a logical explanation for the refereeing in the Premier League. Taken over by aliens to fix betting patterns in Alpha Centuri III – nice one and probably truer than you think!

  3. Buddy your logic is filled with discrepancies.In February 2008, they were five points clear of Manchester United with 12 games left, but were derailed by a 2-2 draw at Birmingham in which striker Eduardo suffered a bad leg break and captain William Gallas remained sitting on the pitch at full-time in a public show of anger.

    Two seasons later, Wenger’s side were top of the table with seven matches to play, but won only two of those games and finished third.

    They were in a strong position to push Manchester United in 2010/11, but began to crumble in February as they let slip a four-goal lead in drawing 4-4 at Newcastle, and ended up dropping from second place to fourth.

    And two seasons ago, Arsenal were top in early February, but a 5-1 defeat at Liverpool began a run of just two wins in nine matches, and they again ended in fourth place.

  4. How Are The Mighty Falling?

    In those days, any match-up between Manchester United and Arsenal stopped traffics days to kick-off. Perhaps only the El Classico in Spain came close in hype, tension and real football display. But not anymore!

    The Roy Keanes and Patrick Vieiras have all departed the scene …and no doubt contributed to the drop in adrenalin. But today there’s Mezut Ozil, Wayne Rooney, Alexis Sanchez, Chris Smalling, Laurent Koscielny, Morgan Schneiderlin, Francis Coquelin, Anthony Martial, Olivier Giroud…and the likes – great players that still make the EPL tick in their respective rights.

    These artists may not measure up to the quality of their predecessors say about ten years ago but the biggest factor that reduced this fixture is the retirement of Sir Alex Ferguson.

    Never before in the EPL era has Man Utd been this poor in playing style and points acquisition. Arsenal on her part is coming back from a ten-year decline in quality inevitably occasioned by the huge and timely investment on the Emirates Stadium. The signs are quite ominous that the Gunners are on the upward trend but they’re not there yet to relive those gruesome days of bone-crushing tackles, breathtaking goals and pizza-throwing debacles that characterized about the fiercest football rivalry in history.

    Does Louis van Gaal possess same Ferguson matador-style approach and win-at-all-cost competitive verve? Has Arsene Wenger still got same resilient never-blink-first attitude to rivalry? It’s a definite no to the former and a cautious probability to the latter.

    The coming of Chelseas, Man Cities has reasonably taken some rival chunk off the Man U/Arsenal match-ups, yes. And today, it has been watered even further down by the punching-above-weights displays of hitherto struggling clubs in the EPL. So much that a match between Leicester City and Tottenham today would draw more attention than this traditional fixture.

    Astonishingly, the only interesting thing left in this ‘great’ fixture today is the aspect that Arsenal is still in the title race. Remove that and this clash would have been far of less significance. With little glory left of the Old Trafford outfit, it’s all about whether Arsenal can get the maximum points to still keep sight of relentless leaders- Leicester City of all clubs!

    With injury not helping LVG and his stuttering side, Arsenal are about the first time in EPL history the bookies’ favourites to clinch all the three points at stake. Whether Wenger and his wards will live up to the bookmakers’ belief is another ball game entirely, especially in this dry run where putting the ball behind the net has been the Gunners’ biggest foes for past seven games. And in David De Gea the Emirates dwellers will find the task even much tougher as the Spaniard is a proven dependable between the sticks.

    Kick off is 3.05 p.m.(Nigeria time), and since the only other fixture taking place at same time is Tottenham vs Swansea, fans will have no option but turn attention to this fixture that has lost all the shine.

    How are the mighty falling!

  5. I won’t mind at all if the Arsenal score with the first kick of the game, then defend like mad for 93 minutes, and then score another in the 95th minutes of 94 added on! Now that would be some thing!

  6. The only thing we need to know is that its a must win game for arsenal to stay in contention for the league.If we win hopefully it will give us the confidence to go on a run and finish top.

  7. Tony,
    Don’t be too severe on Bulldog. I understood the funny about Richard III and thought it quite clever.

  8. Tai: Another cut & paste job! Have you run out of negative bullsh!t?!

    Really looking forward to starting a winning run that reads like:

    Bournemouth
    Leicester
    ManU
    Swansea
    Tots
    West Brom
    Everton
    Watford
    West Ham
    Crystal P
    Sunderland
    Norwich
    ManC
    Aston Villa

    Won’t be easy, but all fingers crossed!

  9. Today either the ref will perform well(hiccup, hiccup) or he will bend to the pressure in his “ear” which will destabilise him.

    ManU will have a plan, no doubt they had a think tank, which included their best ever manager too, maybe even their new to be manager too, giving their soon to be gone manager some much needed help?
    //
    I have been worried for a while this season of the apparent loss of fitness levels, speed, focus and goals of our team.
    I do not know the real reasons for this, but i hope we can put this right in the next games.

    I like the constant movement of Elneny when he plays, something we used to do a lot and i do hope this rubs off on some of the forwards and we start to get our riddim back soonest, starting today.

  10. Nice one Bulldog…..and congratulations Sanogo!
    Para, if we have dipped for a sequence, think not having a Cazorla or Jack available has much to do with it. As Tim Stillman mentioned in his usual articulate style this week, the lack of such a player means Ramsey is trying to do about three different jobs, think it may also be affecting Alexis., despite the lack of chances we are creating. For those who did not already know it, Cazorla is a very very special player. But Untolders know that, so do Spain.
    Caz, or a player with similar qualities is essential to the foundation of Wenger ball, these days, our quick transition to attack.
    But, neither he nor Jack are available, so just have to get on with it. Hopefully, Wengers words mid week will have effect . Should have enough today though, should get a lot of possession, but as ever, will have to be patient, and try not to give the ref any scraps to feed off….if they are going to cheat us, make sure they have to do something that embarrasses them and English football in front of the world…..just like the first half against Leicester.
    Shooting boots required.

  11. From Tai I learn that Nigeria is on GMT + 1. Zone Didn’t know that!

    Facts like ‘club X as not won at Club Y for 20 years’ are all part of the vocabulary of ‘sensationalism’ in other words the language of ‘twaddle’.
    Its so boring.

  12. I am looking forward to this game a lot, as are we all! I have gross misgivings about Match-fixing by Dean and Pawson. I wonder, how long will that run of match-fixing go on for? Let’s hope it is over and that Riley’s stooges know now that their performances are under the microscope and that just like the arseholes at FIFA, they face lifetime bans from involvement in football. It would be better for him if one of them comes out and publicly states that they are under immense pressure to fix matches such as today’s

    On thing is certain – if the refereeing is not too overly biased in favour of United, we are quite capable of putting a few past them. But I predict 3:1 with honest refereeing and 1:1 with Match-fixing.

    COYG!

  13. Just to be pedantic, the Sun is on a run of a few hundred of rising in the East … as the poles switch every now and again … I don’t think it’s ever scored at Old Trafford though ….

  14. I should be looking forward to this one unreservedly. Even if two or three of De Gea, Smalling and Martial return our chance of victory should be excellent.

    If Utd are able to pull out a brilliant performance or we are well under our best, that would be a huge disappointment, huge, but no more. Despite the disappointment i think I’d accept it.

    However, my thoughts are being dominated by what will happen with the officials. The Stoke game with Pawson was simply text book PGMOL near its worst. Fouls not being called, the concept of bookings for repeated fouling utterly disappearing, a good pen claim which we had no chance of getting.

    I just want a clean game but there is surely no hope of that. Once more I feel hugely reliant on getting an early goal, plus the opportunity not arising to screw us with a pen or sending off.

  15. Max
    February 28, 2016 at 8:24 am

    ‘Buddy your logic is filled with discrepancies.In February 2008, they were five points clear of Manchester United with 12 games left, but were derailed by a 2-2 draw at Birmingham in which striker Eduardo suffered a bad leg break and captain William Gallas remained sitting on the pitch at full-time in a public show of anger.’

    Logic? Buddy what have you been smoking? Your interpretation of fact is intoxicated. Arsenal were derailed by a PGMO official who was so corrupt it brought Arsenal captain William Gallas to tears (short of murdering the whistle blowing cheat). The official was instrumental in allowing nasty tackles including one that broke Eduardo’s leg in several pieces. The FA were absent when it came to appropriate action & have allowed the corruption to continue to this day.

    ‘Two seasons later, Wenger’s side were top of the table with seven matches to play, but won only two of those games and finished third.’

    Yet again Arsenal were top of the table despite corrupt officiating that took on a new level to force Arsenal into third.

    ‘They were in a strong position to push Manchester United in 2010/11, but began to crumble in February as they let slip a four-goal lead in drawing 4-4 at Newcastle, and ended up dropping from second place to fourth.’

    Arsenal were faced with further corrupt officiating including some deliberate cheating by Dowd who gave Newcastle every opportunity to destroy Arsenals victorious position by playing against Arsenal with the whistle.

    ‘And two seasons ago, Arsenal were top in early February, but a 5-1 defeat at Liverpool began a run of just two wins in nine matches, and they again ended in fourth place.’

    And two seasons ago Arsenal amazed the rest of the league yet again to keep 4th place & qualification for Champions League for the umpteenth time, despite the corrupt PGMO, setting a record for consistency. The corrupt PGMO officiating continued in the league but despite the PGMO’s operative in the FA cup final Arsenal went on to win the FA cup for the eleventh time. The corrupt official’s selective vision that ignored 5 clear penalties are recorded in HD colour for all those fair minded football fans to see in the future.

    So Max, buddy grow up & smell the coffee. Arsenal are not going to lie down like some would want. Wenger has built an infrastructure to host a dynasty that the corrupt will not assail.

  16. Looks like we are going to try and test them with pace, surprised to see Danny start after Wengers comments in the week about being cautious on his return?

  17. Pundits talking up Spuds. Michael Owen referred to Dier here (sounded like diarrhea).

    Once again it is Arsenals only chance to beat a weak Man U.

    No mention of the PGMO special forces sent to slope the pitch.

  18. The referee has had a good game so far menace don’t you agree.if anything we have had the lions share of the decisions

  19. Really? we are making united look even better than barca for fucks sake!!! where is sanchez? Imho campbell is much better than walcot, he should be the one on that pitch.

  20. On the average, a pretty good half. Gabriel fluffed the clearance, and the young ManU player did well. And he did well again for his second.

    I think Pawson missed 3 or 4 ManU yellows. I think it was Mata had the ball for what he thought was a throwin, was interrupted by the referee, and continued to do a walkabout with the ball. Quite a bit later on, a ManU player passing through the vicinity of a called foul, throws the ball another 10 yards back. And Arsenal player (Coquelin) was attempting to put the ball in play fast, and a ManU player decides to dribble the ball or something. But the first one, which was the most obvious came just before any of those 3, and I’m drawing a blank on the specifics. Oh well, getting old I guess. Maybe the comments will remind me?

  21. Terrible defending at both of their goals. Kudos for wise old man Van Gaal.

    We can still turn this one around but we have to be more clinical. The referee has been excellent so far, two bookings for their fouls totally OK. So, no excuses if we don’t beat United’s kindergarten.

    COME ON YOU GUNNERS!

    P.S. Spuds are one behind Swans.

  22. Agree Josif, ref doing OK.
    Walcott has been missing for the first half, the opening goal stemmed from him losing the ball in a dangerous area, he needs a rocket up his a**e. Maybe Campbell would be a better option.
    Well done to the Man U lad, teaching our established stars how to stay composed and take your chances.

  23. @John,

    Looks like you spoke too soon, with Pawson missing the red card and penalty at the end of the half!

  24. John – if you are ‘unoccupied’ you will have seen 2 cards & several fouls. Rotational fouling but notice how the cards have suddenly remained in the pocket. Even Coq asked ‘how many?’. Wenger is being faced with a corrupt hateful bastard Dean as fourth official. Don’t tell me you can really not see the blatant fouling of our foward line.

    The PGMO special force have been successful so far. Notice the Ozil pull back was not replayed for the handball claim. The Rushford habdball was another goal stopping hand – apparently in a natural position. Penalties for Arsenal will have to be dreamed of.

  25. The handball at the end of the half was obviously a big decision, but why no mention at all of the penalty we should have when Carrick walked (probably not deliberately, but still a foul) on Welbeck foot

  26. Carrick kicked the ball first, didn’t foul Welbeck.

    Terrible, terrible performance. I hope Arsene will fine them with their weekly wage because they didn’t earn it.

  27. Still can’t remember that 1st half incident.

    Is there something wrong with the pitch? Or with shoes? Too many slips and stumbles.

    COYG!

  28. we may yet win it i would be surprised if we did, man united players seem a bit rattled oh hang on a sec no we won’t the ref is being a biased mf

  29. Herrera should have walked now.

    Truth to be told, Ramsey’s push without the ball should have been a red card too. I may be wrong.

  30. Ramsey is a great player but he is so selfish,the best MANURE can do is a draw but i’m seein a WIN,even Van Gal Slid on the pitch. Ha ha ha ha

  31. Wenger talks about belief and mental strength but all I see is a team of bottlers managed by a bottler.Everyone knew how this season would pan out right at the beginning and we’re proved right.

  32. Menace open your eyes you drunken buffoon. In one game where we had to turn up at old Trafford and play half decent to beat a team of kids we bottled it again.That is down to your God Arsene Wenger no one else .and your inane ramblings about the referees will not hide his failings as a top manager this time.Weve been shite!!

  33. A very, very good therapist is the answer John… but even then I’m not sure you can be helped.

  34. I believe in the corruption in the PL, but the ref in this particular match was absolutely fine. If anyone blames him for this loss, then that just shows how utterly bias they are.

    Arsenal have been pretty poor this past month or so. Extremely frustrating when you know how good this team are at times. Yet again, so many stray passes and pretty poor goals given away. Pretty shit to be honest.

  35. Honestly, I feel ten times worse than when we had lost 8:2.

    We were beaten by Manchester United kindergarten. Not Dean, not Pawson. Manchester United kindergarten.

    33 points are out there to play for. We need to beat Swansea and Tottenham next week. If we fail to collect six points, we can forget about the title and Arsene should think about making a huge transfer list next summer that would include overpaid stars without balls.

  36. Well, one should really not say anything more after that performance at all!!!

    We have become stagnant, every team can analyse us and develop a strategy to beat us. We cannot blame the ref for this one, and anyone who does is making themselves look foolish.

    The players looked tired and lethargic, there was no fluidity in our movements except when we tried something, then it fizzled out by keeping the ball too long.

    Utd were hungry for the win and outsmarted/outplayed us, even mocked us at times. I can tell they studied our way of playing just by how they set the team up, they prepared for the game.

    Alas it looks like we did not.

    If we continue to play this way, then we will continue to lose more games.

  37. Arsenal will not win the league this year, nor next year, nor probably in the next 5 years. I don’t think the board actually care so long as the 4th place trophy keeps happening. When Wenger retires I dread to think who they will get in.

  38. John my eyes were open but its your smell that is off putting. LVG showed how he trains his divers & that is quite amazing. I’m still waiting for some replay of the Ozil claim for hand ball. Theo was fouled for the first goal but ref ignored it.

    I am not surprised by the number of smart arse gloaters. I am an Arsenal supporter & win or lose does not matter.

  39. I am an Arsenal supporter & my man Arsene Wenger earns a fortune doing what he does on my behalf. So any of you who do not like my anti PGMO views can tell me who your man is & which club he runs.

    I don’t care what the result is but Arsenal played well & were beaten by a good counter attacking team with additional support.

  40. “I don’t care what the result is” – lucky you. Supporting Arsenal is becoming a depressing experience for those who actually want them to win. Last 10 games, all competitions = W3 D4 L3. Of the 3 wins, 2 were against Burnley and Bournemouth. Only the Leicester result stands out, everything else is either routine or disappointing.

  41. Menace the barnpot does not care about results all he is bothered about is abusing referees and preying to his god arsene,,He celebrates when we have money and dont spend it??

  42. ColG – I am lucky. I have seen football played by morons & bullies for the exact same trophies. What Arsene has brought is quality passing football that is refreshing to watch. Were you never taught that it is not the winning or losing that matters it is how you play the game.

    I get disappointed not winning but know that we win despite the handicap. The problem with football today is that the handicapper does so ‘in running’, so one has to be very luckey to win (unless one gets inside information).

    John I’d spend some of the time you waste learning English. The language has many words similar in sound with different meaning. When you have got that then learn the use of capitalisation. Nouns begin with capital letters. Must be embarassing being taught by an Indian but hey life has its challenges.

  43. Ok ColG, playing your game, of the 3 losses, 2 should have had opposition players sent off (United’s Rashford handball & Barca’s Alba headbutt).

    Number of penalties given since the l0th gameweek (Liverpool- Jan 13th):
    Leicester City- 2
    Tottenham- 3
    Man City- 1
    United – 1

    And how about Arsenal- 0

    Arsenal the only team in the top 5, not to get a pk in that stretch

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