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Analysis of Highbury Square finances

The following article appeared on the RedAction news service, written by Robert Gaffney.  It is reproduced with permission, but Robert asks me to add that it is speculation on his part.   Even so, it is the best bit of speculation I have seen on this.

I’ve been looking at the property piece of the finance figures today.  the below is very much back of fag paper calculations based on mean averages …. Note, this is all at 30th Nov 08.

In total, there are 655 apartments in highbury square.

Of these, Arsenal claim to have an unsold stock of about 60, meaning we have completed/presold 595.

The East and West have not been released yet, however, they will be in four months.

There are 326 appartments in these two stands, of which 293 are pre-sold.  Simply talking, 33 of these are not pre-sold, which means of the 60 held in reserve, 27 are from the completed units in North bank and clock end.

In the north bank and clock end, there are total of 329 apartments.  As above, that means all bar 27 are sold or presold.

The contstruction costs are all complete now and thus, all sales completions go to repay the load which stands at £133 (down from £135m).

In the last 6 months to nov 08, we completed 140 apartments in the north bank/clock end for a total of £58m.  thats an average of £415,000 per apartment.

Now, this is where it gets muddy because it does not state how many were completed in before this six month period.  i.e. – there are 329 releast and available for completion, we know 27 have not sold, we know that 140 have sold.  So what of the other 162? some woul have been completed in the prior periods im sure but real key is, how many of the 162 are realistically going to sell?

Working with what we do know, the release of the north bank and clock end in four months (just in time for the annual figure) will see a flood of money come in.  Assuming the best (which wont happen), we will complete all of those 293.  using the average sale price this period of 415k, that’s an income of £121m, reducing the loan to 12m outstanding (or an Andrey Arshavin).  Of course, its all pie in the sky because the average price might not be anything like that!!

They key is the unknown 162 apartments in the North/bank and clock-end.  Also, the residual value of the 60 in reserve which can im sure be held as an asset against the liability.

Id love to know if anyone has more details on this – im taking this from the interim results which is vague and doesnt give previous sales details.

2 comments to Analysis of Highbury Square finances

  • bender

    FIFA’s ‘6+5’ rule, if allowed in England, would mean that teams must field at least six players who are eligible for England’s national team.

    Now I’ve heard a lot of people saying that Arsenal would be knackered if this was the case. Maybe in present times it would affect us but Arsenal aren’t the only ones would suffer. I believe the whole English league would suffer as a result.

    If this ruling was implemented then football in England would become a shadow of what it is right now. The English Premiership is regarded as the best in Europe, if not the world and like it or not the influx of foreign players has only helped the Premiership become as big as it is today.

    People say that English players have suffered as a result of players from over-shores players coming here. I really don’t believe that is the case. In my opinion, if anything, the foreign players have helped to improve the standard of football in our country and have raised the standard of English players too.

    I’d go as far as saying that we owe a great deal to the influence of these players coming to England. Diet has improved and players now are much better than they were years ago.

    I think it is nonsense that English players and England’s national team have suffered since the number of foreign players have increased in England. Especially the stuff I’ve heard that Arsenal are ruining the English game by hardly using any English players.

    If an English player is good enough then Arsene Wenger will use him. His passport has no bearing on his chances. That’s good enough for me. I couldn’t care less if a player was from England or Mexico as long as they do the business for Arsenal.

    I’ve heard that the ‘6+5’ rule would improve the England national team’s chances of winning things. I think that is rubbish. England haven’t won a thing since 1966. Foreign players really began coming to England in 1995ish so what happened to England from 1966 to 1995 then? Every team had mostly English players in the side and still England won nothing.

    The foreign thing is an excuse for our own mediocrity. Having this rule wouldn’t improve England’s chances of winning things. It would only award mediocre English players who usually wouldn’t get in the team. How would that improve England?

    The truth hurts and the truth is Arsene Wenger and foreign players have benefited England’s league’s. Hardly any English people will admit that but its true. We will never admit our own failings and it’s easy to blame the influx of foreign players as an excuse.

    As I’ve said people say Arsenal will be ruined. I don’t think we will. We have a great crop of young English players coming through and I’m sure the methods they have picked up from Arsenal will be a great benefit to the England national team in the future.

  • The accounts show 186 flats sold for £76.7m. There are 680 appartments and 90 of these had been sold by October 2008.

    Hill-Wood has stated that the development will bring in NET cash of around £200m. I assume this net cash is after paying off the constructions costs.

    What is not clear from the accounts is where on balance sheet is the £70m of constructions costs located.

    If Hill-Wood is correct about the £200m receipts, then after paying the Highbury Square loan of £135M, Arsenal will have £65M to either reduce the Emirates Stadium loan or give to Arsene.