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October 2016
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The Euros: Is there a way of improving one’s ability to predict match results?


By our Special Correspondent

Now you may be slightly surprised but I’m going to answer the question in that headline by suggesting that yes there is.  It’s not foolproof, but it is a method that tilts the odds just a little further in the punter’s favour.

The approach is to… hold back a little.  Rather than rushing in at the start of a tournament like the Euros, or the start of the season one waits to see a little about how things are panning out.

This involves not only looking at which teams appear to be all-conquering but also which teams have sneaked but are having a good run of results.  

There is also the issue of the teams that have become somewhat unnerved by events (considering questions such as is Cristiano Ronaldo losing his touch), as much as there is a good reason to look at teams that are doing much better than expected.

In fact I am basically a person who has one vision when it comes to predicting things, and that is that whatever happened yesterday will happen again tomorrow.

I actually got this from my grandmother who used to peer out of the window, study the weather and tell us what it was going to be like tomorrow.  It took me a little while as a child to realise that all she ever did was to predict that tomorrow would be the same as today.  But the fact was, she got it right more times than she got it wrong.

And it was not until some years after that, that I found out that predicting tomorrow’s weather will be the same as today could give me an accuracy rate better than that of the weather forecaster on TV.

So if you take a look at the recent results and then consider the odds (see for example William Hill betting for Euro 2016 ) you can then look at any odds that suit you and work back through the recent results.

In a sense what I am doing here is bringing the notion of habit into the world of football and betting.  Giroud has a habit of scoring for France, and most habits continue so you put him down to score for France.  If you reckon he doesn’t score in every match but gets two out of three, you’ll probably find the odds are still with you if you bet on three in a row.

Likewise when Giroud had his poor run of form for Arsenal you could gamble that his run of form would continue.  Obviously one day it would come to an end and he would score again, but on each day that run continued, you win.   In the end you lose once, but if you have been consistent you keep winning until the pattern changes.

Now there are people who argue the reverse, saying that all runs of form come to an end sometime – but the emphasis has to be on “sometime”.     The point is that the ending of the run only happens once, while the run itself continues for three, four, five or even more matches.

Now which run you follow is entirely a matter for you – and here’s one more tip.  Look for unusual runs of events rather than the runs which are mentioned in the press.  If Ireland have just drawn their last five games wearing a particular strip, bet on them to win when they wear that strip.  Yes you are going to lose sometime, but the chances are always that you will win more.

As a way of working it is dead simple: if you fancy a punt, try and spot a run that is underway but which has not yet reached record breaking proportions.


16 comments to The Euros: Is there a way of improving one’s ability to predict match results?

  • colario

    I know very little about the betting industry in fact I have never made a bet with a betting company and don’t know how to go about it. Therefore my question may seem very stupid to you.

    The article is interesting and it made me think. I have never thought to bet on chance or my emotions. If only I had done so on in April 1989 when we were at looserpool!

    On chance ‘no’ on a certainty ‘Yes,yes, yes!

    My question is this:

    Is it possible to bet that the transfer news provided by a newspaper, radio, TV or by a blog will prove to be wrong?

  • Pete

    Yes, a lot of people have made a lot of money adopting a “trend following” strategy in the financial markets…

    But like colario I am not really a betting man so look at it more with an academic interest than anything else.

  • SamuelAkinsolaAdebosin

    colario, Yrs, they are wrong, save a thinning bit of them.

    Arsenal transfer rumours are full and bound in all over the media who are covering football news. To be honest with myself, it’s only the media Vardy’s transfer rumour to Arsenal I can say has credibility in it. Because it’s no longer a hidden transfer rumour but an open one, on which the Boss himself has not refuted it. My hope is, Vardy should please makeup his mind and join Arsenal because we are almost desperately needing him to be at Arsenal if I must confess.

    I watched him yesternight on my TV set live against Slovakia. And I saw he had one audacious charge down from halfway on the field to the left side of the field as he received a long pass and proceeded charging down the line in exhilarating pace and shrugged-off his marker, but the Slovian keeper’s feet denied him the goal he should have scored. With this experience, I believe Vardy will properly gagged the position to which to shoot his shots in front of goalie and the timing of it before taking his shot next time.

    The England manager, Roy Hudgson should not worry much on the lack of cutting edge in the final 3rd by the 3Lions yesterday in their match against Slovakia. The important thing is to qualify and England have done that.

    We all know that England were a little bit overconfident at beating the Slovian yesternight. They didn’t conserve energy in the 1st half for the 2nd half as they went on a running speeds to overrun the slovian early in the game. If I had Roy Hudgson’s number, I would have called him to tell his players should soft-pedal on their speeds as they were too fast for my liking. They are supposed to measure their speeds to gauge it appropriately being that they are playing competitive constructive intercontinental football which is not based on continual pacing but intermittent pacing to save energy for the later part of the game.

    In the later part of the 2nd half of their game yesternight especially towards the end of the match, the 3Lions lost their match playing intensity with which they played during the 1st half.

    Haven not conserve energy in the 1st half, the set in of game fatigue and tiredness are bound to take their tolls on the 3Lions who have just concluded a cruelsome Premier League campaign and went straight in to the England camp to start preparing for this tough competition.

    Therefore, the England manager and his players MUST choose their game tactics very well and also rest very well and eschew any extra curriculum activities that can drain their energy save the manager’s training regime.

  • Brickfields Gunners

    Germany 3 – 1 N.Ireland ( Some guy called Mick, Mike or Mikey !)
    Mueller ,
    Ozil &

  • norman14

    Betting – now..

    What odds were available for Russia going out early?

    Anybody else think they “lay down” a bit last night against Wales?

    Today their Manager has offered to quit – not doubt he wants to escape their bizarre behaviour (supporters, their Federation and Government Ministers)

  • Brickfields Gunners

    Robert Lewandowski 3- 0 Ukraine .

  • Brickfields Gunners

    The only time I won a bet was European Cup – Aston Villa 1-0 Bayern Munich – 35 years ago.
    Maybe my luck is about change !

  • Brickfields Gunners

    Gomez makes it one !

  • Menace

    Football betting is just for fun.

    Always think that the money you bet is lost. Winning is only true when you buy something with the money.

    Don’t use money earmarked for something. Use money that is not going to be missed. Keep your bets small so that you don’t need more for the next bet.

    If you must bet then make sure you are not in a depressed state. It will destroy you if you are & you lose.

    Always gamble happy. It will allow you to accept loss & enjoy wins. If you are winning make a point of keeping some of it before you stop. Always set a stop time or you will only stop when money has run out.

  • Menace

    Penalty save in Spain v Croatia is an absolute farce. The keeper was almost in the takers throat. Total bollocks these referees, specially the moreons (the dildo holding goal line official).

  • Pat

    Someone I know got a Father’s Day present of a five pound bet on two Euro matches. Of course he did not win. He suggested he could have been given the fiver and burnt it himself. That’s his view of betting.

    On the other hand, at my first match at the Emirates I put a small bet on and won. 3 – 1 to the Arsenal. But I do not push my luck. So I have never bet again.

  • Pat

    Croatia have just gone two one up against Spain. Arsene was right!

  • Pat

    Sad for Cech. Just saw a shot of him looking very down hearted. Hope he has a good holiday to get over it before the season starts.

  • Damilare

    Imoh, justice was well served in the Croatia Spain match. I think the Penalty was questionable and seems uefa wasn’t ready for a Spain loss.

    Sad for Czech Republic but happy for Petr Cech. From Arsenal point of view, its better for our players to leave the competition early and unscathed. That would do our preparations for the new season a lot of good.

    Yeah, Arsene does know best!

  • Al

    Ozil created 6 chances and misplaced only one pass out the 68 he made today, a 98.5% pass accuracy. Superhuman.

  • Menace

    One of the best coin toss bets was the EU in /out. At 7/1 for Out I thought it was an excellent bet. In most gambles there are 3 or more possible outcomes. In the brexit it was just 2, a coin toss. So 7/1 was an excellent bet for a 50/50 proposition.