By Walter Broeckx
Arsenal team: Cech, Mustafi, Koscielny, Holding, Bellerin, Coquelin, Xhaka, Monreal, Ozil, Alexis, Giroud
On the beach: Ospina, Gabriel, Elneny, Ramsey, Iwobi, Walcott, Welbeck
A long ball from Mustafi finds Alexis but he was offside and wasted the chance anyway. Arsenal monopolizing the ball in the opening stages and Stoke defending in numbers. A corner from Özil finds Mustafi but his header is tipped over by the keeper. That would have crept in. Monreal is found by Özil in a promising position but his control lets him down. Arsenal dominating but still 0-0 after 15 minutes.
A cross from Bellerin finds Monreal but this time the post rescues Stoke and they can clear the loose ball. Stoke give away a corner but the assistant decides a goal kick. Mustafi then dives in a bit wild and gets a yellow card. The free kick goes over. The first shot from Stoke and we play 29 minutes. No score so still 0-0 after 30 minutes.
Stoke now with a dangerous run in the Arsenal penalty area but Koscielny clears the danger. Alexis can pick up a ball when Giroud is fouled but his effort only finds the side net. Again the assistant not giving Arsenal a corner when a Stoke player last touches the ball. Arsenal keeps on dominating and then Coquelin sends Bellerin away and his low cross finds Giroud who pushes it over the line. GOAL!!!! 0-1 to The Arsenal after 42 minutes. Finally!
We go in at halftime with a 0-1 advantage.
Stoke trying to go forward a bit more in the second half because of the score at half time. But not much to do for Cech as a result. But after some 6-7 minutes Arsenal take control of the ball again. Alexis plays a wonderful ball in the path of Özil who is one on one with the keeper and makes no mistake. GOAL!!!!! 0-2 to The Arsenal after 55 minutes. A long 1-2 between Özil and Alexis and a lovely ball lofted over the keeper from the German playmaker.
Giroud gets an elbow in the face from not that type of guy Shawcross. Dean his hair hanging in front of his eyes so he missed it. Giroud can carry on after some treatment. Stoke get the ball after a dropped ball and Arnautovic goes past Holding but his cross is put wide from close range. Stoke starts to play like Stoke now with Crouch up front, fouling the keeper on corners… As a result Arsenal under some pressure and conceding a few corners. Cech has to palm a header away after such a corner. Crouch completely misdirects the next header. Dean letting all things go and Arnautovic again go past Holding and Crouch finishes the cross.WITH HIS HAND!!!! But Dean and the assistant didn’t see it. 1-2 after 67 minutes. A completely illegal goal but well…. Dean….. and an assistant that has been blind all first half with corner decisions….
Mustafi stays down in the Stoke penalty area with a head injury…Stoke counter and Dean let play continue. Lucky Cech can stop the shot. Alexis signals to the bench that he can’t carry on after being on the receiving end of some fouls. Arsenal still 1-2 in front after 75 minutes.
Holding dribbles past a few players and gives the ball to Bellerin who plays it on to Alexis and his low shot goes under the studs of Shawcross and hobbles in the net. GOAL!!!! 1-3 to The Arsenal after 76 minutes.
Alexis goes off and Ramsey comes on immediately after. Ramsey immediately has a shot but the keeper saves. Holding then makes a foul and gets a yellow card. The Stoke player fell badly on his arm and needs treatment. Arnautovic is the player. Couldn’t happen to a better on. After all it was him who ended the career of Debuchy with a nasty push in the hoardings.
Arsenal attacks and Özil with a great ball to Ramsey who stuggled a bit with his control, he looked to lose the ball, but recovered it and his low cross was finished by Giroud! GOAL!!!! 1-4 to The Arsenal after 80 minutes.
Arnautovic goes off. Will he suffer the same fate as Debuchy? Is it bad to wish him this? Ramsey really up for it and full of energy. Welbeck comes for Özil after 82 minutes. A very very very very very wise move from Wenger. Walcott also comes on for Giroud at the same time. Giroud was having second thoughts about that, I think he was thinking of a possible hattrick…?
Ramsey with a failed backheel gives Stoke the chance to attack and Cech needs to make a superb save to stop the shot from Stoke. Meanwhile the stands look empty with 5 minutes to go. Arsenal with a lovely combination at the right flank with lots of players involved but Stoke can clear the ball in the end. Crouch comes in with a flying tackle and even Dean thinks this is too much and gives a yellow card. Arsenal now trying to be very careful with their limbs and avoids the duels a bit. This leading to giving Stoke the ball a bit more but the defenders can mostly clear the danger that is thrown at them. No need to risk any more injuries with this score line.
If it wouldn’t have been for the illegal Stoke goal we would have probably trashed them even more. In Moaninho land we win 0-4, in Dean’s PGMO land we win 1-4.
Well done Walter the Bolt!!!
Quick question Walter, if premier league can take restrospective action if referee or his assistants miss an incident, should Crouch not get 3 game ban for his handball goal? Dean cannot admit seeing it can he?
If my understanding of rules correct that is straight red, so only thing I cannot be sure is whether it 1, 2 or 3 game ban.
only thing I’m unsure is whether that is considered 1, 2 or 3 game ban as punishment
How to go Flash Walter!
No more goal difference edge to the pool!!!
I still think Dean was looking for an excuse to even up the yellows.
Scoring with the hand is only a yellow card. Stopping a goal with the hand is a red card offence. So Crouch should have been send off after his wild tackle
The top 4 is back within our reach! It’s just a shame that it took so long for it to sink into our players that not getting into the top 4 this season was/is a very real possibility. On level goal-difference with Liverpool. If we end outside of the top 4 because of that handball goal from the cheat Crouch, that really will be a painful pill to swallow…
oh come on West Ham, state aid or not….
Ok my misunderstanding Walter thank you.
Thanks for the quick job Walter.
Every time you look Dean officiating a gunners match, you think he can’t be worse (or more biased). And every time he proves he can! Great ref! 🙂
Today was one of the climax of bad refereeing, IMHO.
Sanchez can “thank” Dean for his injury. Not a yellow to protect him against the thugs. Hope Wenger will say a word about it in his press conf…
StokeSentinnel has a bunch of twits by Stoke twits. I would say that most of the twits writing in with twits think that Arsenal should have been an easy win.
I think the one worse referee we could possibly get for a Stoke game, is Anthony Taylor. And would do ya know? We just so happen to get him for the FA cup final! And would do ya know? About 5 of the regular on this website even guessed that’s the very man that we would be getting for that match, just as we have many times in the past. We an absolute joke this game has become!
*what an absolute joke
Hey Walter, what about this non-call just before Stoke scored with their hand?
https://twitter.com/Jstiles23/status/863463218538201088
Very pleasing performance and score-line.
It’s good to win against this team captained by the nasty Shawcross and supported by horrible fans who shamelessly sing disturbing songs about Ramsey.
I’m really glad Ramsey had an assist today … I wish his shot just after he came on had hit the back of the net.
I am a very pleased Arsenal fan.
We are all supporting West Ham tomorrow.
Can’t find any of my friends to take a bet with me.
What is the bet you may asked well its this that Arsenal will win the pl as soon as technology is used in pl games as long as Mr Wenger is in charge of Arsenal.
Another solid performance from the back three. With our current group, this might be the best setup we can run out there.
I still can’t believe that the Stoke fans, after all of these years, still boo Ramsey whenever he comes on to the pitch or touches the ball. All because he had the audacity to nearly have his career finished, by getting his leg snapped into two. I genuinely don’t understand their logic. I would be truly embarrassed to be part of that fan-base.
Bellerin after having a timide display after coming on at Southampton in the first 15-20 minutes then became better and better in the match over there. It gave him some confidence and now with two more assists in this match I hope he is back the Bellerin from before his form dropped a bit.
Gianni, long time not seen but well…. Dean…. what do you expect….
Well, here I am with that egg on my face, and I couldn’t be happier.
I got the result wrong and Xhaka remained on the pitch.
But no thanks to the deplorable dancing Dean it seams. As terrible as ever by all accounts.
What is it with that w****r ?
So a massive well done to the lads for overcoming the rugby players of Stoke, a disgrace of a referee, and a very sad minority of our own fans (fans in the loosest possible sense of course) to secure a magnificent victory and keep our hopes of a top four finish alive.
COYG, or should that be, Come on you Irons !!
Oh, the Islington Gazette produced an article on the game. According to them, the majority of Arsenal fans want Wenger out. I was surprised to see them write that. I would be even more surprised to find they have convincing proof of this. I would think the proof is something like asking their dog rover what was going on.
What more does the lump of fertilizer called Dean have to do the embarrass even the useless FA into firing him? In any reasonably well run sport we would have passed that stage long ago.
However, a very fine win over Dean, the Orcs and Sparky, well done the team!
Lets hope Sanchez is OK.
Nitram – you got right Dean wanks Riley because he doesn’t have genitals. The bitch was so blatantly cheating that Alexis got kneed in both hamstrings when within 6 yards of Dean. He didn’t even call it a foul. The Stoke donkey that did it was allowed to foul all game just like the rest.
Sparky & Stoke deserve the worst of nature to befall them & leave them writhing in pain.
Gord – there is a group of racists who dislike the French & hate Wenger, supporting the agenda of the WOBs. Their just desserts would be Wenger signing for another 5 years. It would drive them to jumping out of planes without parachutes!
The Wenger interview at Arsenal.com talked briefly about Sanchez. Wenger had thought it might be a stomach injury. But apparently “all” it was, is that he got kicked in the thigh.
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Thanks Menace.
Menace
You accused Dean of something that I have accused Riley of. But, if you hung both Dean and Riley together from their feet, so their shoulders were at the same level and bound their arms to their torso’s, what would their two heads look like?
A pair of …..
Watched the game on a Sky link. Does anyone else think they are deliberately showing fewer replays of contentious or marginal decisions? It seemed to me that offsides and the odd potential elbow in the face were not reshown. Rather they would show a 20 second shot of the back of the head of a player walking away and then move on. Strikes me this is their way to stymie the kind if detailed analysis of refereeing decisions this website has done such fantastic work in delivering.
Numbers Games
My contention has been, that for the most part the EPL consists of 2 populations of teams, the top group and the rest. It may be that the top part splits in 2 occasionally.
If I enter the data for the bottom 13 teams (who have either played 36 or 37 games at this point), I can calculate the average rate of winning, drawing and losing per game. So, if I generate either 36 or 37 games (flipping a coin), I can calculate the average number of wins/draws/losses. I generate Poisson deviates from those averages, and if the total number of points is one I observe in the EPL standing this season, I accept that drawing as possible. Out of 10,000 trials, I found that 2912 were possible. Which is not bad efficiency wise. The first thing that pops up, is the 61 points of Everton is consistent with this same data. In particular, getting fewer wins than Sunderland is about 1/4 as likely as what Everton achieved.
Numbers Games
If I add in the Everton numbers, may average win/draw/lose rates change slightly.
Rerun the system for 1,000,000 trials. The number of successful replications is about 29% again (295184). Everton and Middlesbrough are the two most unlikely outcomes of the bunch, at 34 and 70 respectively (previous note was wrong, it was Middlesbrough as well). The data for Sunderland is about twice as likely as Middlesbrough.
All the rest of “the pack” sits between 10 times as common as Middlesbrough, and 10 times as common as Sunderland. Watford and West Ham had the most likely replications.
I would guess that getting less than about 30 points is unusual for this particular data set.
Getting less than 5 wins in the season is unusual. Getting more than 13 draws appears to be a little unusual. Getting less than 15 losses is quite common (it is the most common thing I flagged for).
The most likely partial season statistics are for: Hull, Watford, Burnley, West Ham, Leicester, West Bromwich, Southampton and Bournemouth. The records of Stoke, Crystal Palace, Swansea are 50-65% as likely as that larger group. But, what that larger group is saying is that there is no difference between WBA in 8th place and Hull in 18th place. Crystal Palace and Swansea both had managerial problems, but so did others.
Stoke apparently had the goal of finishing in the top half of the league. Well, as positions 8 through 18 are all the same; getting that standing is about the same as finding an 11 sided die and rolling a 1 or 2.
Numbers Games
Oh, this kind of numbers game is very much Monte Carlo. We draw a curve on a piece of paper, and attach the paper to a dartboard. If the dart lands in the area under the curve, we can count it.
This is one of the ways that Pi can be calculated.
For the most part Stoke were pretty light on-got behind the ball but didn’t do a lot else. This result like Southampton beforehand was very very welcome -This Sanchez led improvement in form did not look very likely a few weeks ago- but this improvement is not a good guide for our prospects next season- neither team really had anything to play for.
Perhaps Arsene Wenger going or staying is less of a guide to next season’s prospects than if Sanchez goes or stays.
Top 4 is clearly what players and significant shareholders want. Lets hope we eventually get there- because I would like to see them happy-but for me – a lowly fan who is not a shareholder with a pecuniary interest in the clubs business performance-Top 4 is better than being 5th or 6th- thats all.
Numbers Games
Bahh, bugs. If I calculate whether I am looking at 36 or 37 games, why don’t I add up wins + draws + losses and see that I am getting that same total? Hmmm?
Okay, some work to redo. It is going to make the algorithm less efficient. But, I’ll be back.
Numbers Games
Even with the error, I am still see 29% efficiency. What does the change bring?
Well, I sort the output on games won, then on games drawn, then on losses. For any particular number of games won, we see a peak in results seen with fewer observations to more or less draws (and then losses). It is expected that most of the data to be eliminated, are the very infrequent results.
Adding this minor requirement, means throwing out about 90% of what I accepted before. The number of occurrences isn’t as important, as the ratio between occurrences.
Going through a million trials, is taking a minute or so. Peak number of occurrences is sitting just under 1000. So, maybe running for 10 times as many trials will be good enough?
Middlesbrough having only 5 wins is less expected, just like before. Middlesbrough’s results are about half as likely as Sunderlands. Everton is about half of Middlesbrough. The peak in likelihood runs form 8 wins to about 13 wins.
Oh well, time to run for longer and submit this.
For Gord and Menace.
There was an old poof of Khartoum.
Who invited a young lesbian up to his room.
They lay on the bed.
Till one of them said.
‘Who does what? With what? And to whom?’
Numbers Games
Back after 10 million trials. As expected, I am throwing out a lot of trials. The largest number of occurrences seen is about 8000.
For 19th (Middlesbrough), our lowest winner. We would expect 9 draws to go with 5 wins about twice as often as what was observed with 13 draws.
For Sunderland with 6 wins, we would expect them to be getting 10 draws, not 6. 10 is a bit more than twice as likely.
At the other end, we have Everton. Everton’s result is about 1/3 to 1/2 as likely as the two relegated ones discussed already. The numbers suggest that 18 wins and 7 draws is significantly more likely than 17 wins and 10 draws.
Much of this is predicated on “all other things being equal”. But, we have 6 teams not being considered (the top 6). So, this apparent error in the ratio of draws to wins could be a dynamic due to the (ignored) top-6.
7 wins tends to go with 7 draws. If more than 7 draws, tendency for there to be 13 draws.
8 wins tends to go with 10 draws.
9 wins likes 7 draws more than others. Slight drop off to 11 draws, and then quite a bit more to 13 draws. Hull has 9 wins, 7 draws.
10,11,12 wins are where the peak is.
10 wins tends to like 8, 10 or 11 draws. 12, 4 or 13 draws come next. Stoke has 10 wins with 11 draws.
11 wins tends to like 8, 7 or 9 draws. 10, 5 or 12 draws come after that. West Ham (9), Burnley (7), Watford (7), Crystal Palace (5) and Swansea (5) are from this season.
12 wins tends to like 7, then 9, then 6, then 5, then 4 draws. WBA (9), Southampton (9), Bounremouth (9) and Leicester (7) are from this season.
We sort of expect a 13 win team, with 6 or possibly 4 draws.
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Thanks Colario. That puts my numbers to bed.
Yesterday the commentary team went on a rampage over Holdings foul on Arnautovic. Of course it was a foul. It was cynical. It was one of those I wish ARSENAL don’t commit.
BUT….I am soooooooo happy that Holding did it to him…..
Lawyers Don’t Lie.
A Lawyer Had A Wife And 12 Children And Needed To Move As His Rental Agreement Was Coming To An End For The Home Where He Lived.
But Was Having Difficulty In Finding A New Home.
When he said he had 12 children, no one would Rent A Home To Him
because they knew that the Children Would Destroy The Home.
He could not say that he had no children, He Could Not Lie, After all,
Lawyers Cannot And Do Not Lie.
So, he had an idea : he sent his wife for a walk to the cemetery with
11 children.
He took the remaining one with him to see homes with the Real Estate Agent.
He liked one of the homes and the agent asked :
“How Many Children Do You Have ?
He answered : “12 children.
The agent asked “Where are the others ?
The Lawyer answered, with a sad look, “They are in the Cemetery with
their Mother.
And that’s the way he was able to Rent A Home For His Family Without Lying.
MORAL: It is not Necessary To Lie, One Only Has To Choose The Right Words.
Lawyers Don’t Lie … They Are Creative …
Arnautovic, Adam and Shawcross – Unholy Trinity of Stoke, three “persons” who deserve every bad thing that happens to them.
In fact, after our boys had left Stoke, the referees should have been forced to stay there and the whole city should have been turned into a quarantine for…say…20 years?
When it comes to our boys, they gave a great response to banner-morons, Orcs of Stoke and the worst referee ever. It would have been perfect if Rambo had scored a goal, brought out of his pants a Stoke shirt with the name Shawcross on it, took a No. 2 on it and then did a Messi-at-Bernabeu with that shirt in front of the worst Orcs but I’ll take this result as well.
Oh, the report from Germany suggests Kolasinac has finally signed.
Well, Hull lost again. Which sorted out the relegation battle. Hull, Middlesbrough and Sunderland all gone.
Come on West Ham!
And in that other game, I’m looking for a tie.
West Ham is already on holiday. Look like the top four is a blip this year. Let’s concentrate on the FA cup
No accident that PGMOL ensured a Man City win yesterday and a Liverpool win today.