Fulham v Arsenal: the metaphors might be failing, but Arsenal are on the up

 

 

By Bulldog Drummond

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There’s another Arsenal match coming up and the Sun leads with the big news of the day: “Mikel Arteta goes full Arsene Wenger as he struggles to do up his coat after Arsenal’s win over Man Utd,” which certainly says a lot about the paper, although nothing about football.

So it’s down to us to try and find a few facts such as the home and away form of the two clubs. 

 

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
3	Arsenal away	7	3	2	2	11	8	3	11
9	Fulham home	7	4	1	2	13	12	1	13

 

So that seems to give Fulham an advantage.  But of course this season we have learned not just to look at tables but also, given the way the fixtures have been screwed, look at who has been played of late.

In the last six matches Fulham have played an equal balance of home and away games, which is quite unusual these days.  But only one of these has been played against a club from the current top nine: that is the home game against Brighton and Hove Albion, a club that is thought by many to be exceeding expectations. 

Fulham beat Brighton at Craven Cottage 3-1, to make it played six, won three, drawn two, lost one.  Not a bad set of numbers in the Premier League.

The goals scored in these six Premier League games since 25 October are ten for Fulham and eight for the opposition.  Here are the details…

 

26 Oct 2024	Everton v Fulham	D	1-1
4 Nov 2024	Fulham v Brentford	W	2-1
9 Nov 2024	Crystal Palace v Fulham	W	0-2
23 Nov 2024	Fulham v Wolverhampton Wanderers	L	1-4
1 Dec 2024	Tottenham Hotspur v Fulham	D	1-1
5 Dec 2024	Fulham v Brighton and Hove Albion	W	3-1

 

So if we measure the league table just based on the last six gamse, this match looks like a real top-of-the-table clash…

 

 

“But where are all the other big-name clubs in terms of the last six games?” I hear you cry.  Well, Manchester United are ninth, Newcastle 10th, challenging Brighton are now slipping backwards to 12th, downward spiralling Tottenham are 13th and ManC are 16th.  Oh yes and Aston Villa who the press made such a fuss about as the season began, are 18th in the last six games table.

So in terms of current form what we have here are two of the in-form clubs of the moment.  Except that Fulham have achieved their form either by playing clubs we would expect to be lower down the league or clubs like Tottenham and Brighton who have reputations (especially in Tottenham’s case) built by the media and which perhaps might be said to have exceeded their actual abilities.

However in contrast Arsenal’s last six league games have included games against  Liverpool, Newcastle, Chelsea and Manchester United, and although Manu are not doing that well at the moment they are still surely a big name club that can make things happen, even if that is only sometimes.

And yet despite the list of six matches including three of the “big 7” Arsenal still only lost one of those games, while struggling through that awful fixture list before getting a spot of relief with the games against Forest, WHAM and Manu.

Last season also, Fulham were pretty much a mid-table team at home, winning nine and losing eight while Arsenal away from home won 13 and lost three.  But this season Arsenal really are improving being the third-best away team in the league at the moment – despite that horrendous set of fixtures early on.

There is also tradition to remember here.  In the entire history of civilisation Arsenal have beaten Fulham 42 times but lost only nine times.  Now it is true that the last two games (in August and December last year) resulted in a draw at Arsenal’s stadium and a 2-1 win for Fulham by the Thames.  But in the previous nine games (that is from 20 April 2013 onward) Arsenal were not beaten by Fulahm ,and just once held to a draw.

So historically we can say the ball is on our ptch, or words to that effect.

And indeed with a little twist to the memory we might remember those two matches in the 2018/19 season where Arsenal beat Fulham 5-1 away in October and then 4-1 at home on New Year’s Day.  A return to such form would be rather jolly.

The only problem is that Fulham have scored more goals at home than Arsenal have away.   But there is a little hint of what could be to come when we look at the figures in a bit more detail.  Three of Arsenal’s last six games have been away, and despite Arsenal winning just one of those three, the goal tally in those matches has been 6-4 in Arsenal’s favour.

For Fulham, three of the last six games have been at home, and two have been won, but the goal tally there is 6-6.   I suspect the turning tide is still running in Arsenal’s favour (if you see what I mean).  (Not one of my better metaphors but the day is still young.)