Arsenal only did well after Xmas because the fixtures were much easier

By Tony Attwood

We are receiving more and more messages saying that the notion that the latter part of our season was not good, because we had an easy run-in at the end of the season.

I’ve answered this several times but I thought it might be easier to stop the discussion by publishing the data and then I can just refer those who argue this point back to the facts.   Here is a list of our games against the teams who ended the season above us.

Date	Match	Res	Score	Thirds	Halves
28 Sep 2020	Liverpool v Arsenal	L	3-1	1st	1st
17 Oct 2020	Manchester City v Arsenal	L	1-0	1st	1st
25 Oct 2020	Arsenal v Leicester City	L	0-1	1st	1st
19 Sep 2020	Arsenal v West Ham United	W	2-1	1st	1st
1 Nov 2020	Manchester United v Arsenal	W	0-1	1st	1st
6 Dec 2020	Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal	L	2-0	1st	1st
26 Dec 2020	Arsenal v Chelsea	W	3-1	2nd	1st
30 Jan 2021	Arsenal v Manchester United	D	0-0	2nd	2nd
21 Feb 2021	Arsenal v Manchester City	L	0-1	2nd	2nd
28 Feb 2021	Leicester City v Arsenal	W	1-3	2nd	2nd
14 Mar 2021	Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur	W	2-1	3rd	2nd
21 Mar 2021	West Ham United v Arsenal	D	3-3	3rd	2nd
3 Apr 2021	Arsenal v Liverpool	L	0-3	3rd	2nd
12 May 2021	Chelsea v Arsenal	W	0-1	3rd	2nd

If we look at the first half of the season we played seven games against the teams that came in above us and in the second half of the season we played the remaining seven.  No temporal imbalance there.

To do it by thirds in the first third we played six of the teams that came in against us, in the second third it was four games, and in the final third it was four games.

So looked at in halves of a season there was no real difference in terms of playing better or worse clubs.  It wasn’t that we had a run-in exclusively against Sheffield United, Fulham and West Bromwich.

But let us try the analysis against the other five members of the traditional big six.

Date	Match	Res	Score	Thirds	Halves
28 Sep 2020	Liverpool v Arsenal	L	3-1	1st	1st
17 Oct 2020	Manchester City v Arsenal	L	1-0	1st	1st
1 Nov 2020	Manchester United v Arsenal	W	0-1	1st	1st
6 Dec 2020	Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal	L	2-0	1st	1st
26 Dec 2020	Arsenal v Chelsea	W	3-1	2nd	1st
30 Jan 2021	Arsenal v Manchester United	D	0-0	2nd	2nd
21 Feb 2021	Arsenal v Manchester City	L	0-1	2nd	2nd
14 Mar 2021	Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur	W	2-1	3rd	2nd
3 Apr 2021	Arsenal v Liverpool	L	0-3	3rd	2nd
12 May 2021	Chelsea v Arsenal	W	0-1	3rd	2nd

Here the two halves of the season absolutely balance – we have five in each half.  In terms of thirds, obviously there can’t be a balance because we are looking at ten games.  But it balances as near as possible in that there were four in the first third of the season, and three in the remaining two thirds.

So it is a total myth to suggest that any part of the season was particularly easy for us.  That is simply not true.

Overall with the traditional big six matches we won two in the first half of the season and lost three.  In the second half of the season we won two, drew one and lost two.  A slight improvement in the second half of the season.

In measuring the thirds, against the other members of the traditional big six we won one and lost three in the first third, won one, drew one and lost one in the second third, and won two and lost one in the final third.

Our results against the other five members of the traditional top six were not good, but they did indeed improve, and it was not a case of playing tough games at the start and easy games at the end.  Looking at traditional members of the big six we got 

• Three points from for games in the first third
• Four points from three games in the second third
• Six points from three games in the final third. 

All this shows that attempts to demolish the notion that Arsenal had a terrific turn around in the last two thirds of the season, by suggesting we played easy-to-beat clubs at the end, and had difficult matches early on, is fantasy.

Our results were not anywhere near as good as we would have liked them to be last season, but the improvement is there for anyone who can look at the results to see.  We got a better as the season went on, and if you measure the final two thirds of the season we came second.  And during that period we played 60% of our games against the traditional top six clubs.

Why do people seek to deny this reality?  That one I think I’ll have to leave for our next article on the psychology of supporters – and of journalists.

But here’s a thought – denying the validity of the two thirds is a perfect case of gaslighting.  And it was only the other day I suggested we might well see a return of gaslighting in the near future.

 

Gaslighting: how refereeing in the Premier League is manipulated, and why the media never speak about it.

• 1: Are the referees and the media really out to get Arsenal, or am I just imagining it?
• 2: How discussions about refereeing are deliberately stifled by the media
• 3: Referees: the odd statistics that are simply never revealed or discussed
• 4: How we have been utterly misled about football: part 4
• 5: Hiding the problem of refereeing is destroying the credibility of the Premier League
• 6: Revealed: PL referees are not 98% accurate but actually just 75% accurate