12 responses

  1. WalterBroeckx

    Bad timing Andrew… 😉 too many discussions about referees 🙂

  2. WalterBroeckx

    https://www.facebook.com/Arsenal/videos/10154662629362713/ a nice goal from Trae Coyle for the U18

  3. Gord

    I thought this was a nice change of pace from the referee discussions.

    At some point, I would like to see Arsenal pick up some Canadians (especially from outside of southern Ontario). I suspect it would be the Ladies who do this first, if it ever happens.

    WRT to the previous thread, I wonder if anyone is going to figure out what game and referee I described? Not important.

    But, I think I will lean on Andrew, for analysing an entire season of games, and not just a season of Arsenal games. The questions about the officials for the EPL seem to be independent of time.

  4. Andrew Crawshaw

    The U23s are half an hour in to their game against league leaders Everton..our starting team Martinez, Jenkinson, Sheaf, Olowu, Bramall, Nelson, Dasilva, Mourgos, Dragomir, Willock, Malen Two first team players Martinez and Jenkinson playing, I presume for match fitness

  5. Gord

    Thanks for that Andrew. I just visited the twit link, and they have nothing since the lineup. Maybe they will summarize at half/end of play?

  6. Andrew Crawshaw

    Goal-less at half time

  7. OlegYch

    speaking about academies, i’d like to commend southampton efforts on u23 coverage
    last time around they streamed the game against Arsenal on their training pitch live with commentary, and without any pointless registrations
    never seen other PL clubs do that
    their website is the best i’ve seen too

  8. OlegYch

    doh everton scores

  9. Andrew Crawshaw

    Late goal from Everton to deal a one nil win. As we lost 5-0 at home this was a rather better performance but, unfortunately, the same result in terms of points. Jeorge Bird has a report on his Arsenal Youth website.

  10. Gord

    Andrew, you have probably heard of neural networks. They are in my plans.

    When I finally finish entering all this first year data, I need to read the data to see it is consistent. All the games have the score they are supposed to have, the away goals are what they should be and so on.

    Baring something unusual, I should have the name of the referee for all EPL games. Unfortunately this degrades to most FA cup games, somewhat less for League Cup games, and hit or miss for anything else. Linespeople or 4th officials? Not a chance.

    It does allow me to predict the name of the referee for these missing games (non UEFA). Which is really only useful if there is a list of who was referee at all League Cup and FA Cup games. And the predictions may not excite people anyway.

    For nearly all games, I have the times (to the minute) the goals are scored. Two goals scored within a minute? That’s a problem. For most games, I have card/penalty data of some kind. Very seldom, do I have missed penalty data. I expect that there are more missed penalties than I am seeing, but the people compiling stats don’t record it.

    Is predicting a referee when referees are not noted, useful?

    The thing everybody wants, is to predict win/draw/lose. Okay, I can do that. Predicting the score is a different problem (which probably gets different results from win/draw/lose). Predicting the number of yellow cards issued and predicting when the number of cards to both sides is the same is something a person can do.

    There are not that many penalties. Predicting anything having to do with penalties probably runs into no data (not enough data).

    I think referees trying to even up cards, ejections and penalties is natural. There are reasons for this to exist even if one doesn’t suspect the officiating system of corruption.

    There is no “foul” data. But, as we have shown at Untold, there is no reason to assume that foul data is accurate.

    For me, if I was a referee manager for a league, I would have serious problems with officials who tended to even up.

    As no end of idiots writing into Untold suggest, people make mistakes.

    Mistakes can be deliberate.

    If an honest mistake is made, there is a chance it evens up over the course of a season. If the referee gives a “compensating” foul/card/penalty to the other team, there will forever be arguments as to whether this should have been done.

    For me, I think the referee report should allow for a referee admitting to a mistake. And the responsible FA (which probably doesn’t include the The (sweet) FA) could call for a game to be replayed (which leads to fixture congestion and no end of other problems). But at the end of the day, you want the result determined by the teams, and not by the officials.

    But, the 2015/2016 (and subsequent 2016/2017 season) is the _PERFECT_ example! All leagues have strong teams. It could be 1, 2 or even 4 or 5. Out of about 20. To have a team that is not classed as a strong team, win the league is highly unlikely. To have that team in danger of being relegated the following season is even more unlikely.

    The Premier League probably has a large number of proposals to buy teams on the books. If I buy the team, can I win the league?

    And the PGMO responds. Any team can win the league.

    And the PGMO can say this, as officials can warp a game. Which they have have ample experience in doing.

    And to demonstrate to possible investors just how much control the EPL (and/or PGMO) has on results, they run an experiment. They make a mid level team win the league, and in the subsequent year we see that same team struggle to not be relegated.

    Something like this is not possible in a sport where enough goal are scored. It is only because football is such a low scoring sport, that there are so many parties (PGMO, The FA, team owners, media) who can have a “hand” in what the actual results are.

    At the end of the day, with so many dollars at play, greed has to be important. How does money flow in all of this? Which points to corruption.

    If referees are influencing results, it is very likely that money to their personal wealth is going to show up. But, there could be non-monetary rewards, for example some referees could feel that north England football teams should always win over teams who are not from north England.

    If a result of a game is biased, it is not necessarily because the officials are by intention biased.

    But, the EPL has set itself up to be the TOP league. It is open to investors from just about anywhere, regardless of problems in their history. It’s league officials have demonstrated that they can make any team the best, and to relegate any team they desire.

    What else is needed in a corrupt league?

  11. Brickfields Gunners

    Thanks for the updates , Andrew . Keep up the good work.

  12. Rich

    Think the flurry of loans well and truly underline how much the club prioritises player development over results at youth level.

    Quite right,too. But it does make the wins, which i admit I always enjoy hearing about, quite a bit less likely. U23’s for instance were on course for top 4 which I think meant a play off (?).

    u18’s in an even better position to make top four which puts them in top group for next stage. Will be harder for them now too if their stronger players move up to u23’s.

    Anyway, main thing is there’s no need to panic if results aren’t great from here as the teams we select clearly won’t show our full strength. I’m hoping Martinez keeps playing for rest of season. Like him a lot, and those extra games could help keep him happy enough to stay for another year.

    Trae Coyle looks a very exciting prospect, by the way.

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