By Tony Attwood
It is in a lot of the English papers; the Premier League is about to see the first billion-pound game on Saturday with Arsenal against Man U.
This claim is a rather spurious one in that it not actually based on anything to do with the game itself, but on the fact that if you add the turnover of the two competing sides together you get Arsenal at £424 million and Man U at £581m, totalling £1.05 billion according to the analyst Vysyble.
But annual turnover plus annual turnover equalling a billion pound game makes no sense – which is probably why so many newspapers have just copied each other in running the story without any external commentary of their own. And indeed the Daily Mail then went bonkers with “it is enough cash to run the National Health Service for three days or pay for 22 new secondary schools.”
It is a shame this one tiny element of Vysyble’s work has got the publicity because they are one of the few groups pointing out, as I have tried to do once or twice, that the PL has just about reached the end of its current road. Roger Bell of the company has also picked up on the dead simple point that these vast amounts of money only result in comparatively tiny profits, and when compared with the profit that could be made with this sort of money elsewhere, the profits are laughably and dangerously small. Dangerously so, because all companies have profits that move up and down because of changes in circumstances, and so they need the good years to generate major profits to soften the blow of the lean years.
As things stand a tiny dip in income can prove to be disastrous for many clubs – they are living on a knife edge. And it is particularly relevant now as the Premier League begins the process of selling the domestic broadcast rights for 2018 to 2021.
In the last two deals the League has had increases of 70 per cent in the value of those three-year rights packages, but it is difficult to see how this could continue given that broadcasters’ income is not increasing. Indeed for the current growth pattern to be maintained the TV next deal will have to clear £8 billion and it is impossible to imagine how BT or Sky has that sort of money to splash out.
That leaves two possible outcomes: every game to be televised, or a new European League which, because it would be starting from scratch could have rules that make the league sustainable, incorporating salary caps, and built totally around TV on the American football model.
The obvious bidders for that scenario would be Google and Facebook. Amazon could be third bidder but they seem to be diversifying so much that the economic risk might be too great at this moment. So we’d still have Arsenal v Man U but in a European League on Google, and the catalyst would be the inability of broadcasters to pay more while the players eternally cost more. Google could even make it available free since they make most of their money out of selling the data of people who use Google. As they say in the industry “if the product is free, its you that is the product.”
As for the match tomorrow, the home and away league tables have proved to be quite good indicators of results so far this season so I’m staying with these for the moment. Here is the league table for home games…
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester United | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 19 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 16 | 21 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 5 | 21 | 19 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 13 |
Both clubs are right up there at the top but unfortunately for Man U only Arsenal can be at home today. Here is the away league table.
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Chelsea | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 16 |
| 3 | Burnley | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Watford | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Tottenham Hotspur | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Manchester United | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 11 |
| 7 | Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Leicester City | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 |
| 9 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 7 |
| 10 | Arsenal | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 7 |
Man U are in sixth scoring just under two a game and conceding one. Arsenal score around three a game at home and concede less that one goal a game on average. Of course Man U are a strong team although when it comes to away games they are much the same as Liverpool but with a few more goals.
The style of play is a little different in that Man U players touch the ball less than Arsenal players…
| Rank | Club | Touches so far this season |
|---|---|---|
| 1. |
Manchester City
|
12,748 |
| 2. |
Arsenal
|
11,150 |
| 3. |
Tottenham Hotspur
|
10,870 |
| 4. |
Liverpool
|
10,738 |
| 5. |
Chelsea
|
10,020 |
| 6. |
Manchester United
|
9,913 |
In terms of yellow cards both clubs are on 19, and are 14th in the criminal league table. Top of that league at the moment are West Ham on 30, WBA on 29. Man City interestingly are fifth on 25.
There is a similarity in terms of shooting between the clubs:
| Rank | Club | Shots |
|---|---|---|
| 1. |
Liverpool
|
250 |
| 2. |
Tottenham Hotspur
|
248 |
| 3. |
Manchester City
|
246 |
| 4. |
Arsenal
|
237 |
| 5. |
Manchester United
|
203 |
but a greater difference when we measure shots on target this season
| Rank |
Club
|
Shots on target |
| 1. |
Manchester City
|
105 |
| 2. |
Liverpool
|
94 |
| 3. |
Arsenal
|
86 |
| 4. |
Chelsea
|
77 |
| 5. |
Tottenham Hotspur
|
76 |
| 6. |
Manchester United
|
73 |
That is about two more shots on target per game for Arsenal, which is a small difference but when looked at in relation to the home and away leagues should give room for encouragement.
More anon.
But meanwhile if you have an interest in Bob Dylan’s music and have ever searched for a Dylan song you may well have come across Untold Dylan since we are often at or near the top of such searches.. I’m sometimes asked if that is us too, and yes it is.
- Welcome to the man who shouldn’t be there. Arsenal v Man Utd Sat 2 December 2017 – The Match Officials.
- It’s official; Arsenal is of less interest than moaning tweets from WHU fans
Differences between Arsenal and ManU;
Arsenal seem to crumble easier while Manu seems to keep that determination to win for longer periods of the game.
Arsenal does not usually play nasty football when needed, while Manu will definitely injure you if needed.
Arsenal has a nice manager while Manu has a nasty manager.
Arsenal’s manager is still BOSS(for now) while Manu’s manager is now having to conform to Manu’s “old boys” hierarchy.
Arsenal players do not provoke/goad the opposition to unsettle them while Manu players will do so at the drop of a hat or usually from kick off.
You can see where i’m going with this;
Arsenal are just too damm nice and naive, which is sometimes a hindrance, but as we know, when a nice person tries to be a bastard, it usually misfires back on them.
So Arsenal, play the game you know to it’s best and be on top form, and they will not defeat us.
As it as it may financially be, Arsenal will beat Man Utd in the Premier League week 14 match between the duo clubs taking place tomorrow evening at the Emirates Stadium.
From the Arsenal perspective, there will be no need playing this particular Premier League match if the Arsenal FC Gunners are not going to win the match which they MUST win unfailingly to at least safeguard the 4th place position they recently secured in the table and avoid the possibility of being overtaken by Liverpool should they win at Brighton, and to allow Tottenham Spurs close the gap on them. For such a negative scenario will not be acceptable to the Gooners but abhorred. Therefore, the Gunners should in earnes start to eye the 2nd and 3rd spots climbing in the table should Chelsea drop points at home to Newcastle and of course the likely beating of Jose Mourinho’s Red Devils Man Utd team will see Arsenal reduce the gap between them to just 1 point in the table.
It has been reported in the media that Le Prof has said Lacazette will not be available for this PL big game. Well, in as it has happened, Arsenal have good senior strikers in Alexus Sanchez, Olivier Giroud and Danny Welbeck who can also operate from the wide in the front three. And also has Alexis Sanchez who can play as striker and wide man behind the striker. But Olivier can only play as striker who with his height advantage can track back to offer defending at the Arsenal box in an aerial ball situation coming into the box
In the wise of choosing which of the 2 options of 3-4-2-1 or 3-4-3 Le Prof will like to adopt to execute this match to a win result for Arsenal, depending on which of his strikers he starts to lead the line in the Gunners of Sanchez, Welbeck and Giroud, if he starts Sanchez, Giroud or Welbeck, I think Le Prof will continue with his current playing formation of 3-4-2-1 against Man Utd because any of the trio strikers can operate efficiently in this playing formation style with the onus on Sanchez to start the match as striker while Oezil and Welbeck will play behind him and Giroud coming on as super sub at a stage in the 2nd half of the match.
My 3-4-2-1 Arsenal starts and 7 man Gunners on the bench to beat Manchester United.
Starts:
Cech
Koscielny Mustafi Monreal
Bellerin Ramsey Xhaka Kolasinac
Welbeck Oezil
Sanchez.
Bench:
Ospina Holding Metersacker Coquelin Wilshere ElNeny Giroud.
What a starts and bench!
Tony, I am sure you are on the case.. But what’s going on at State Aid Stadium?
Is their any small print where it can be reallocated?
para, I haven’t watch much of utd this season, but I get the impression that your comment should be that they “keep that determination to not lose for longer periods of the game”.
I think MaureenO will be happy with an away draw, so I expect a couple of buses in the away penalty box.
We’ll see.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/dec/01/sadiq-khan-west-ham-london-stadium
“A bungled process”
Possibly a typo, perhaps they meant to write,
“A bung led process”?
Nice one Fins ! Such splurge of public funds may not even occur in third world countries !
This farce is almost Kafkaic . It can only get worse , I mean interesting from here on , especially if the Hammers go down .
Good day to break the news on the subsidised stadium, with all the journo’s out in Russia reporting on the world cup draw.
Finsbury,
thanks for the link, makes for very interesting reading….
This Boris chap, is he not by any chance related to the one guy who is supposed to represent the UK in Brexit, who promised 350 million per week to the NHS, and negotiates trade deals with every country in the world ? At least, as we see he is a fantastic dealmaker, à la Donald T. Duck….. the Brexit Bill being the last example is it not ? How this guy can still be in charge of anything else then his own bedroom is a mystery to me.
As for this nugget, it comes straight from State Aid PR I guess :
“West Ham United has played a significant part in the most successful regeneration programme in the history of the modern Olympics….”
Guess Tony can comment on that once more !
I mean considering the statement from WU, I’d say that is absolutely trus and not one sports organisation has ever gotten so much for so little…
‘The most successful regeneration programme ….’
The Olympics site is gradually filling up with enormous office blocks and huge towers of flats far beyond the pocket of your average citizen of Newham (the borough where the Olympic site sits).
If that’s successful regeneration …..
Making sure that you have covered all options , especially the family jewels.
Bear Removal Service-
A man wakes up one morning in Alaska to find a bear on his roof. So he looks in the yellow pages and sure enough, there’s an ad for ‘Bear Removers.’ He calls the number, and the bear remover says he’ll be over in 30 minutes.
The bear remover arrives, and gets out of his van. He’s got a ladder, a baseball bat, a shotgun, and a mean old pit bull. ‘What are you going to do?’ the homeowner asks. ‘I’m going to put this ladder up against the roof, then I’m going to go up there and knock the bear off the roof with this baseball bat. When the bear falls off, the pit bull is trained to grab his testicles and not let go. The bear will then be subdued enough for me to put him in the cage in the back of the van.’
He hands the shotgun to the homeowner. ‘What’s the shotgun for?’ asks the homeowner.
‘If the bear knocks me off the roof, shoot the dog!’
The key to the State Aid fiasco is the educational system that ‘grants’ rich boys access to schools such as Eton. This Boris is one perfect example of an Eton mess except this one has only bitterness left in the mouth. He was elected by the publicity machine that got many ‘yuppies’ into the voting booths because of his affairs with some pretty bimbos. The anti wotsit brigade had its effect on his predecessor Livingstone, & State aid was granted to the porn kings of the West End barrow boys. It appears no one will be penalised apart from the tax payer.
The social scene in England is blighted by the sprogs of the wealthy with wasted educations. They all live on the basis of known circles without a care for those who strive for a better society. The Boris is in effect the face of the stupid that these represent. What hope for us football lovers to have an honest association governing the peoples game.