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Who did what and what problems come up next…. Using the past to predict the future.

By Tony Attwood

With this season’s end also being the end of the Wenger Era I found my mind wandering, and, being of a certain age, found it was quite hard to remember exactly who had won what both during recent years and indeed the who Wenger Era.

My thought was that no one remembers if you for anything other than winning, not for being runners up or semi-finalists, although it was interesting this year to find out just how many FA Cup semi-finals in a row Tottenham had lost.  (Although just for the hell of it I felt I wanted to check – and yes Arsenal have been in the most FA Cup semi-finals (29) having won 20 of those.  Tottenham have been in 20 and won just nine).

But I divert myself.  What I wanted to do, and as I say this really was just for my own interest at first, although I’ve now decided to type it up, was to compare how the “big six” as we now have to call them, have done in the last five years.   Of course we don’t yet know the FA Cup final result so I have added +1? for the finalists and given Liverpool one of those ratings for Europe too.

And I decided to see how far down each club had sunk in the past five years too, so I have a “Lowest” position in the league for each club as well

So here is the top five list.   Obviously the League column doesn’t add up to five because Leicester won it one year.

Club League Lowest FA Cup Lge Cup Europe Total
Man C 2 4th 3 5
Man U 7th 1+1? 1 1 3+1?
Chelsea 2 10th 1? 1 3+1?
Liverpool 8th 1? 1?
Tottenham 6th 0
Arsenal 6th 3 3

Thus Manchester City have five trophies and either Manchester United or Chelsea will end up with four, leaving us in third place along with one of those two, with three trophies.

Looking at this I wondered if lots of Manchester United, Liverpool and Tottenham fans are consumed with the same sort of angst that some Arsenal fans have, over not winning the league a lot in the last five years.

So that led me to add a second column – not recording the winning of anything but instead seeing the lowest each team had been in the last five years.  Manchester City is the only one of the five that has not slipped below fourth in the past five years.  I didn’t realise that – unless (as is quite possible) my numbers are wrong.

And then, because I felt like it, I decided to do the whole of the Wengerian era from 1996/7 through to this season, using the same bunch of figures.

Club League Lowest FA Cup Lge Cup Europe Total
Man C 3 22nd 1 3 0 7
Man U 10 7th 3+1? 4 3 27?
Chelsea 5 10th 6+1? 4 2 17?
Liverpool 0 8th 2 3 1+1? 6?
Tottenham 0 14th 0 2 0 2
Arsenal 3 6th 7 0 0 10

So yes, over the Wenger era we are third in terms of winning things, but actually come out best when we look at where the other clubs have ended up in their worst season (Manchester City are the only one of the six who have been relegated during the Wengerian times.)

Interestingly Chelsea is the only other team to have won the FA Cup three seasons in four.

Of course I know this is rather nerdy and many people won’t find it interesting at all – especially if the only thing that matters is how well one does this week.  But I just wondered what we can tell from information like that below as to how well each club will do next year…

Club Stadium Owners More cash? Europe
Man C State paid Sheikh Mansour As much as needed Champs
Man U Old but OK Glazer family From own earnings Champs
Chelsea Still waiting Abramovich Stadium might affect Europa
Liverpool Expanded Fenway Sports Group “Whatever is necessary” Champs
Tottenham About to move in ENIC Stadium will affect Champs
Arsenal Paid for by AFC Kroenke From own earnings Europa

Manchester City will, I feel sure, win the League again and again and again.  Until the ruling elite in Abu Dhabi is overthrown or gets bored or anti-gravity is discovered and oil and gas become worthless, or Uefa realises that it has six leagues where there is no longer any competition and it ought to do something about that.

Manchester United are always the safest financially because they continue to earn their money through world wide marketing.

If Chelsea do go ahead and revamp Stamford Bridge (for which they now have permission) then they will have to move out for three years.  Tottenham overcame all my dire predictions and made Wembley home, so maybe it could work.  But there seems to be no move yet to do this.  Unless I missed the press release.  Twickenham, Wembley and the London Stadium are the three places they have talked about moving to.  For three years.

Liverpool meanwhile are taking a long time to get back to their golden years.  They are getting closer, and they have done a bit of a stadium expansion up to 54,000.  But whether Fenway really want to keep pouring money in… maybe they do but it could still be a long haul.

Tottenham have the second stadium problem arising – moving into their new ground, for which they are charging seat prices above Arsenal’s (as per our previous article).  Although our prediction for this past year was wrong, I’m still going to say the first few years in the new ground, and the need to pay back large sums of money in a short amount of time, could affect them.  But Tottenham don’t care about what I say, and even if they did, they’ll know I got it wrong last year.

And then there is us.   I can’t see Kroenke putting more money in, so the issue is, can we buy the three new superstars we need for £50m plus income from sales.  Or will one of our kiddies really come good?

I’m really not suggesting I’ve proven anything. Just sharing a little meander around the figures, in the way one gets used to there not being any football for a while.

 

 

4 comments to Who did what and what problems come up next…. Using the past to predict the future.

  • Josif

    Tony

    My guess is, similar to Arsene’s, that European Superleague is not far away.

    Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United, Manchester City, Tottenham.

    Bayern, Borussia Dortmund.

    PSG, AS Monaco.

    Real Madrid, Barcelona.

    Juventus, Milan, Inter, Roma.

    That’s 16 teams. Various formats are possible. Pure league format (two games between the teams home and away) or something else.

    Maybe it won’t happen next season as UEFA have changed the Champions League format next season but if the biggest clubs decide it’s in their own financial interest to make such a league, UEFA might get into a situation similar to the one of European basketball were years ago.

  • Samuel Akinsola Adebosin

    Let me first of all say I am relieved to see the near nightmare Arsenal’s last season’s campaign came to an end in the PL match against Huddersfield yesterday at the John Smith’s Stadium. In a match in which the now left Arsenal boss, Arsene Wenger and the Gunners put an end to their 7 losing run at away in the Premier League with a 0-1 win over Huddersfield on the very final day of last season’s PL campaign.

    But I will not ascribe to the thoughts being peddled around in some quarters that Man City who are being financed by a billionaire somewhere with almost unlimited money reserve financing the club to buy top quality players that saw them won the PL Title last season with 100 points out of the total collectable 114 points in the PL to set a new benchmark in points collection will continue to win the Premier League Title unlimited.

    Despite that Man City will look to have unlimited money they could spend to buy world class players this summer and in the next winter window, having won the PL Title last season by doing such spending doesn’t mean they will win it in next season’s campaign. For, the Premier League competition is highly a competitive League that can be won by any of the top six clubs side in the PL who has a manager who can enforce the super driving force mentality required at the top level of the game to drive his team with that incredible super driving force to win the Premier League Title reminiscent to the supper driving force which was applied to Leicester City in 2015/16 and in 2016/17 to Chelsea by Claudio Rainer and Antonio Conte that saw the two clubs captured the PL Titles in successive 2 seasons. The PL teams having played against Man City last season and understand the way they play will make it very difficult for them to repeat the win of the PL Title next season which they won last season and they won’t win it. Save, if they be aided and abetted by the PGMO to win it again as they aided and abetted their wining it last season. In truth, I don’t think Man City got up to the 100 points they’ve claimed to have gotten last season. I think they would not have gotten more than 93 points had the PGMo not illegally assisted them.

    If the post Arsene Wenger Arsenal era is to be.characterised with Title wins by Arsenal FC, It has then become very important for the Arsenal board and owner to appoint a new manager who has the team managerial super driving force capacity in him that will propel Arsenal to win the coveted PL Title next season preceded with a League Cup win and followed with an Europa League Cup win at the end of the season if the Arsenal board and owner have the ambitions in them to see Arsenal win Titles next season’s campaign.

  • Andrew Crawshaw

    Tony,

    Tiny point of correction – our Women still have two games to play, this Wednesday away at Sunderland and Sunday lunchtime away against Bristol City. Currently we are in fourth place in the table with a game in hand over Reading in third, Man City also have two games to play and are one point ahead of us.

    City play Yeovil at home on Wednesday (pretty much a banker for a win as Yeovil haven’t yet scored a goal this season) and are at home again on Sunday against Everton. We must all keep our fingers crossed that they somehow drop points in one of their last two games.

  • Gord

    Nice writeup/interview about Alex Scott on Arsenal.com

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