By Bulldog Drummond
- Football is getting very dark and is pricing itself out of the reach of many fans
- Arsenal and Tottenham, last season and this season. Is the gap closing?
You might want to sit down before looking at the table below – unless that is that you have already contemplated the issue of Arsenal’s away form and Manchester City’s home form.
Now you might know, if you are a regular reader of our ramblings, that before each game we do a comparison of the home team’s home form, and the away… well you get the idea. And we do this because some teams have very different form at home compared with form away.
But sadly what we find this time is what we might expect – Manchester City are very strong at home, and Arsenal can slip up away.
However there is one ray of hope from the statistics – and that is in terms of the goals. Arsenal have scored the same number of goals away as Manchester City have at home while having conceded one fewer So the difference is only marginal but it is there, and it could be a lot worse!
Arsenal are in fact the best away team in the league while Manchester City are only the third best home team in the league. But still, Manchester City are unbeaten at home…
2023/24…
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal away | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 11 | 23 | 29 |
| 3 | Manchester City home | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 34 | 12 | 22 | 34 |
| Difference in Man C favour | +1 | +2 | +3 | 0 | +1 | -1 | +5 |
It is also worth considering the home and away form of last season at this point after 14 games at home for Manchester City and 14 away for Arsenal in 2022/23
2022/23
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal away | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 9 | 19 | 34 |
| 2 | Manchester City home | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 47 | 14 | 33 | 37 |
| Difference in Man C favour | +1 | 0 | +1 | +19 | -5 | +14 | +3 |
Quite simply Arsenal are doing worse away from home as compared with a year ago, but their goal difference is better. Manchester City are doing slightly worse at home than they were a year ago at this stage of the season, but their goal difference is a lot worse.
In short Arsenal are slowly closing the gap on Manchester City in terms of the performance comparing City at home and Arsenal away, but not so much as we might wish for ahead of a game at Manchester City’s stadum.
If we go back to the last ten games we get
| GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Opponents PPG | |||
| 1 | Manchester City | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 26 | 1.29 | |
| 2 | Liverpool | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 10 | +18 | 25 | 1.20 | |
| 3 | Arsenal | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 34 | 8 | +26 | 24 | 1.15 | |
But if we just see the last eight games Arsenal are in the lead
| GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Opponents PPG | |||
| 1 | Arsenal | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 4 | +29 | 24 | 1.02 | |
| 2 | Manchester City | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 20 | 1.30 | |
And it is the same for the last six and last four games.
But there is another factor we might take into account. I have written a number of times how last season’s attempt at the title fell apart because of sudden dips in the club’s performance
| 04 Feb 2023 | Everton v Arsenal | L | 1-0 | Premier League |
| 11 Feb 2023 | Arsenal v Brentford | D | 1-1 | Premier League |
| 15 Feb 2023 | Arsenal v Manchester City | L | 1-3 | Premier League |
and another
| 09 Apr 2023 | Liverpool v Arsenal | D | 2-2 | Premier League |
| 16 Apr 2023 | West Ham United v Arsenal | D | 2-2 | Premier League |
| 21 Apr 2023 | Arsenal v Southampton | D | 3-3 | Premier League |
| 26 Apr 2023 | Manchester City v Arsenal | L | 4-1 | Premier League |
This season we have only had one so far in which there was just one win in five Premier League games between 9 December and 31 December.
Talking about dips in form is not something most publications do – they seem to be more interesting in expected goals, and where goals come from rather than actual results. But I find results more informative and so went to look at whether ManchesteRr City have had a sudden drop in form this season.
In fact between 12 November and 16 December 2023 they played six league matches but only won one of those (a 1-2 away win against Luton Town).
Liverpool have had something of a dip, but it has been it has been less of a catastrophe. Between 30 September and 25 November they played seven league games and won three. Not a total disaster, but still not as good as the pundits daily expect.
I think it is fair to say that the league will be won by whichever club avoids another dip..
A look at the run-in shows Arsenal can’t afford to drop points let alone have another dip as they did at Christmas. Their schedule is the toughest of the three. City are champs until they’re beaten and Klopp still might get his going away gift.
I’ll try to remain positive and not mention injuries or the PGMO.
COYG!
OT
It is interesting to see how the situation at Chelsea evolves.
Fans are so unhappy with the new owners who, besides, IMHO, not really understanding PL dynamics and functionning, are facing all the problems of a club run before them by a team hell bent on trophies and not respectful of rules and regulations.
How often was UA ridiculed by pointing out this was a hellbent runaway train….
They’ve had their trophies…now comes the bill and they can’t really pay. Frankly I don’t feel sorry for them.