- Ødegaard’s return certainly will help, but we seem to have too many players…
- That double edged sword heads Arsenal’s way;
By Tony Attwood
Looking at the way Arsenal’s results have gone over the years, I have, in past commentaries, noted that Arsenal are constantly subjected to the Wave Effect. In essence, this sees many aspects of human behaviour not as individual events which could turn out either way, but more as a wave with peaks and troughs. Good stuff, middle-of-the-road moments, and downturns: a rise and fall pattern repeating over and over.
Put simply, an analysis of Arsenal’s results over the years shows that the dodgy results all come together, as do the runs of good results, and the move between them can be quite sudden.
Indeed we see the same pattern with Manchester City. Now of course their dips tend to be smaller than most clubs simply because they have been able to buy in and nurture the very best players around, and having done that they can sign the best young players, since quite obviously more good young players would like to sign up with ManC rather than with a club near the foot of the league.
Thus even Manchester City’s poorer results come in groups, as a wave form would suggest. The first dip didn’t include any of your actual defeats but even so…
| Date | Match | Res | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep | Man Cv Internazionale | D | 0-0 | Champions League |
| 22 Sep | Manchester City v Arsenal | D | 2-2 | Premier League |
| 24 Sep | Manchester City v Watford | W | 2-1 | League Cup |
| 28 Sep | Newcastle U v Man C | D | 1-1 | Premier League |
… that was nonetheless a dip according to the normal win-win-win formula that they have been able to adopt of late. And it was followed by
| Date | Match | Res | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct | Tottenham Ho v Manchester City | L | 2-1 | League Cup |
| 02 Nov | Bournemouth v Manchester City | L | 2-1 | Premier League |
| 05 Nov | Sporting Clube v Manchester C | L | 4-1 | Champions League |
So let’s go back to Arsenal. Last season I noted how it was the downturns in the waves that scuppered any chance of winning the league.
Arsenal’s first dip came with three draws and a win from 31 August to 22 September, most particularly disappointing being the home draw with Brighton and an away draw with Atalanta. Rather more encouraging was the 2-2 away draw with Manchester City which concluded the run of one win in four matches.
But then came along a second dip which we really could have done without. A defeat to Bournemouth was unexpected, and without that, the draw at home against Liverpool would have been more palatable. The easy win in the league cup made it seem that things were back on track but consecutive defeats to Newcastle and Inter suggest another dip.
Thus the point is not never to have draws or defeats, but to get out of the runs in which several such results come one after the other, as they did last season with, for example, that run of four defeats, two draws and just one win in seven games between 9 December and 7 January.
The trouble is however that if a club is trying to avoid any defeats at all costs, it means that playing some backup players in order to cover for injury or just to give the backup players a chance in an easier match, can be a disaster, not just because of a defeat in one game – but because that defeat can trigger a who run of poor results.
It is not that ManC have found a way of never having such dips – last season for example between 27 September and 8 October they had three defeats and one win, while between 12 November and 6 December, they had three draws, one defeat and one victory.
What actually happens with Manchester C’s dip in results is that they recover from their dips more quickly, and have a tendency to have them in games that matter a bit less. And of course they have such dips less often.
This season Arsenal have already had two dips, as noted: 31 August to 22 September and a horribly long dip of 10 October to 6 November. That means that to get anywhere good in the league we can’t have any more.
And just as a final point: Nottingham Forest’s evolution into a top-four club looks slightly less like the emergence of a new force in football, if one considers their rather over-extended opening eight-game dip of two wins, four draws and two defeats. Since then they have won three Premier League games in a row which has shot them up the league. But if normal service is resumed, another dip will be along shortly.
Beyond any doubt, in modern English football, the key is to stop a defeat from becoming part of a bad run, reducing it to a single event. Do that most of the time, and the chances of winning the league are greatly enhanced.
Thus it is not about winning every game – it is about making sure that defeats are isolated incidents, not part of a run. And one good way to do that is to have a couple of quality players returning to the first team, after a layoff.
