Chelsea v Arsenal on Sunday: how the form books predict it

 

 

By Bulldog Drummond

It’s Chelsea away on Sunday at 4.30 pm., and the home and away comparison for the two teams this season makes them appear quite similar.  Arsenal have the better defence – but only by two goals, Chelsea have the better attack, by three goals

This season

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
11 Chelsea home 5 2 2 1 8 7 1 8
7 Arsenal away 5 2 1 2 5 5 0 7

 

Of course, we are still looking at only five games each, so there is still some justification to look at the whole of last season, and if we do a much more encouraging pattern emerges….

Last season

 

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
15 Chelsea home 19 6 7 6 20 19 1 25
1 Arsenal away 19 12 3 4 35 18 17 39

 

That would give us cause to suggest a clear victory for Arsenal, but sadly this season’s results have to give us pause for a lot more thinking.

And sadly when that thinking takes us to the last six games table of this season we might well end up wishing we hadn’t bothered.

 

Last six games
Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
3 Chelsea 6 3 2 1 12 7 +5 11
10 Arsenal 6 2 2 2 11 10 +1 8

 

Arsenal are only one goal behind in the scoring but again the defence has been leaking goals, and the combined figures really don’t look that good.

Chelsea did go galloping through an unbeaten sequence earlier in the season but when we look at the opposition that really is not quite so impressive as five consecutive wins flanked by two 1-1 draws might appear.  True they did beat Bournemouth which Arsenal singly failed to do

 

Date Game Res Score Competition
1 Sep Chelsea v Crystal Palace D 1-1 Premier League
14 Sep  AFC Bournemouth v Chelsea W 0-1 Premier League
21 Sep  West Ham United v Chelsea W 0-3 Premier League
24 Sep  Chelsea v Barrow W 5-0 League Cup
28 Sep  Chelsea v Brighton and Hove  W 4-2 Premier League
03 Oct  Chelsea v KAA Gent W 4-2 Conference League
06 Oct  Chelsea v Nottingham Forest D 1-1 Premier League

 

I’m not sure how much their subsequent 8-0 victory over Noah’s Ark can be counted – but nevertheless the goals do have to be scored, and not everyone manages such scores even against such modest opposition, so credit must go to them for not giving up, cruel though their ceaseless scoring might appear.

In the league overall Chelsea are one place above Arsenal courtesy of two extra goals.  But leaving aside those conference league results what we have got is a run of one win in  the last five games – that against Newcastle United, in the League

 

Date Match Res Score Competition
06 Oct 2024 Chelsea v Nottingham Forest D 1-1 Premier League
20 Oct 2024 Liverpool v Chelsea L 2-1 Premier League
27 Oct 2024 Chelsea v Newcastle United W 2-1 Premier League
30 Oct 2024 Newcastle United v Chelsea L 2-0 League Cup
03 Nov 2024 Manchester United v Chelsea D 1-1 Premier League

 

Arsenal’s last five games, again leaving out the European match this week, have been not much better with wins over Shakhtar and Preston, but really we are fiddling the stats to get to that.  The fact is Arsenal really do need to improve – and get that improvement going pretty quickly.

The league table comparing now with recent seasons’ reads…

 

Pos Season P W D L F A GD Pts
5 Arsenal 2024 10 5 3 2 17 11 6 18
2 Arsenal 2023 10 7 3 0 23 8 15 24
1 Arsenal 2022 10 9 0 1 24 10 14 27
6 Arsenal 2021 10 5 2 3 12 13 -1 17

 

So yes we are still above the level of 2021/22, but we have sunk a long way down from the glories of the last two seasons while Chelsea do seem to have been on a dramatic downward curve which is now being reversed – although still not back to the level of two years ago.

 

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
4 Chelsea 2024 10 5 3 2 20 12 8 18
11 Chelsea 2023 10 3 3 4 13 11 2 12
4 Chelsea 2022 10 6 2 2 15 10 5 20
1 Chelsea 2021 10 8 1 1 26 3 23 25

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