- The Premier League is wallowing in incompetence and illegality
- PSG are starting to show their nerves – which could help Arsenal
By Tony Attwood
To answer the question in the headline I’m going to ask another. Just how good – or bad – have Arsenal been in the second half of this season? For that is when we have had the injuries we all know about – in many cases injuries focussed around our goal scorers, as for example, the period when the entire front line was missing. So was it this that made a big dent in Arsenal’s fortunes?
We know of course that as the club got into the final stages of the Champions League, so a certain level of rotation happened to preserve players for Champions League games, and as a result of that it is possible to argue that some Premier League games were drawn rather than won.
But in fact in the second half of the season Arsenal have slipped only slightly, getting 28 points to Manchester City’s 30 and Liverpool’s 33.
And yet despite all these problems from 1 January onward Arsenal played 16 games and lost just one – that at home to West Ham. Although certainly the three draws in the last four games have hindered the club’s performance.
We can argue the case one way or another, but I think most of us would agree that if some of those recent seven draws could have been wins (by resting a few players and then perhaps having fewer injuries to the forward line) we could still be challenging Liverpool at the top.
And to show just how close the margins have been, in the second half of the season Arsenal gained five fewer points than Liverpool (28 points to 33). So three draws that had turned into wins each by having just one more goal scored, would have put Arsenal above Liverpool for this part of the season. Thus my conclusion, we are not that far off.
Obviously we can always have what might have been, but understanding the size and nature of a problem is a preliminary to finding a solution, and the notion that three draws into wins could have made quite a difference, suggests that maybe wholesale changes (which risk unsettling the team as a whole) are not needed.
What is to be noted is that this season, despite all the wild ravings by reporters over Liverpool, and despite Arsenal’s endless injuries, Arsenal have the best defence in the league. Here is the league table in the order of goals conceded. I’ve included Tottenham just because, well, just because….
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal | 34 | 18 | 13 | 3 | 63 | 29 | 34 | 67 |
| 1 | Liverpool | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 80 | 32 | 48 | 82 |
| 6 | Nottingham Forest | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 53 | 39 | 14 | 60 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 59 | 40 | 19 | 60 |
| 10 | AFC Bournemouth | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 53 | 41 | 12 | 50 |
| 15 | Everton | 34 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 38 |
| 16 | Tottenham Hots | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | 62 | 56 | 6 | 37 |
So nothing to do there; the defence is working fine. But clearly the number of goals scored has declined undoubtedly due to the injuries. And let’s just see how that has affected the team. In these tables I am looking at League games only…
| 2023/4 | 2024/5 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Games | Sub | Goals | Games | Sub | Goals |
| Bukayo Saka | 35 | 0 | 16 | 17 | 4 | 6 |
| Kai Havertz | 30 | 7 | 13 | 21 | 0 | 9 |
| Leandro Trossard | 18 | 16 | 12 | 25 | 9 | 8 |
| Martin Odegaard | 35 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 2 |
| Declan Rice | 37 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 2 | 2 |
| Gabriel Martinelli | 24 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 8 | 7 |
So it is very obvious indeed that our top scorers in the League last season are underperforming this season, and not least that must most obviously be because of missing games through injury.
In fact, if you take the decline in the number of goals in the league for each of these players this season (that is for example, Saka is down 10, Havertz down four etc etc) we can see that last season these six players scored 62 league goals between them. This season between them they have scored 34 goals. That is to say just over half the number in the whole of last season.
And ok they have a few games left, but not enough to catch up with last season.
Now the argument is that since the dirty tactics of other clubs, combined with a lack of sympathy from the referees, is going to mean that this is likely to continue, every club will have learned that the way to stop Arsenal is to cripple their forwards. The refs we know will be generally unsympathetic.
So the way out of that problem could be to have several more players of the highest quality who can score goals and who can also act as backups. The only problem is that players of the sort of quality we want, expect to be playing week-in week-out. They don’t want to come in if they are going to be a backup for one of the six players in that table.
Obviously, we can hope that referees will wake up and stop allowing Arsenal players to be kicked about so much as they were this season, but relying on officials of a highly-secretive organisation which is immune from media scrutiny and criticism, seems a bit of a weak strategy to me.
But maybe one or two more up-and-coming players and a policy of allowing some of our top players a day’s rest from time to time while ensuring that we only play reserves in the FA and League Cups, could help.
However one thing is for sure. Other clubs have learned that the way to defeat Arsenal is to kick them, and unless PGMOL do change their approach we are going to get just as many injuries next season as this – if not more!
Interesting stats Tony. I think the stand out for me is Odegaard, he’s not been the same since his injury whilst playing for his country. I wonder if there is a residual problem from it, if so |I hope it can be sorted in the summer. No one could have anticipated the loss of both Havertz and Saks at the same time with Jesus out as well. The media have been screaming for us to buy a stiker for some time, but what we need is the right striker and I don’t know who that might be. So I leave it to those who do know and trust that they will buy well or not at all.
Graham
I couldn’t agree more with your sentiment, “leave it to those who do know”.
Far too many bloggers, pundits and journalists (not to mention young people brought up playing FIFA on the PC/PS/XBox) have got it into their heads that they know far better how to run a football club than trained, experienced, qualified and highly paid professionals. I’m 100% confident they know better than, Neville, Carragher, you, me or some bloke down the pub who hasn’t as much as managed a market stall let alone a football club!
The only way Arsenal can win the EPL is if the refereeing becomes fair and transparent.