The real reason why

 

 

 

• • Transfers stalled, prices rising: it’s summer
  • Is it possible for clubs not sponsored by oil money to make a profit in the Premier League?

 

By Tony Attwood

I really would like to know if other clubs have fans like some Arsenal fans.   Fans who on hearing of a signing about to be made by a manager who has taken the club from only seven points above relegation after 17 games, to being one which has just had three consecutive second place finishes. from 1998 to 2005, would start signing petitions complaining about which player has just been bought.

But it seems to be an Arsenal thing.  We might remember Wenger for example who joined Arsenal after the club had come 12th the previous season.   Some Arsenal fans forgot what normally happens to a new manager: the club sinks down.   

Arsenal didn’t of course; but then Arsenal have never gone to the utter depths experienced by Tottenham and Manchester United since 1975/76 so it is only us old timers who remember any of that.

And I often wonder if these people who protest about the signing of a Chelsea player actually remember Cech or Jorginho, or have actually looked at Havertz before his injury.  Or come to that, considered the contribution of Gallas.

So now we have four new players Nørgaard, Zubimendi, Arrizabalaga and Noni Madueke (who is actually a north Londoner, a bit like me, except he’s a lot younger and can play football.)  But we were both born in north London so we have some affinity.   All of which makes it fairly easy to miss the fact that Ethan Nwaneri has just signed a new five-year deal at Arsenal

As for our new man – Madueke – typcially for Arsenal, much criticised before he actually arrived – he has expected goals, his shots per game, his shots on target per game, his shot conversion rate, the level of winning possession, his “possessive carries” and his carries ending in a shot all exceeded the figures of Saka and Martinelli last season.

So unless you consider that it is likely that all three players (Saka, Martinelli and Madueke) will get injured at the same time, it is utterly obvious what he brings to Arsenal.

But what we also have to consider is the impact of the team.   Before opposition teams and their allies in the PGMO decided the only way to stop Arsenal was to injure as much of the team as possible, Arsenal scored their highest recorded number of league goals in 72 years – and 72 years ago, they had four extra games to do that in.

The obvious lesson from last season is that opposition players from many teams lower down the league will start each match looking to injure someone, knowing that the chances of the referee doing anything about the repeated “tackles” (I use the word in its loosest context) on the same players were minimal.

So, having a) more players with the ability to score and b) players who can swap positions is a good thing.   The latter is particularly so because most of the fouling players are fixed on one opponent and one position, so they can get frustrated and fooled by the positional changes.

That in turn leads them to make mistakes, which either gives Arsenal more free kicks and penalties or indeed more shots on target.

Now, it may have missed some people’s attention last season (and very reasonably so, since the media made nothing of it) but Arsenal only got two penalties in their favour last season – the lowest of any club in the league.  By contrast, the only team to finish above them in the League (Liverpool) got over four times as many.

The reason for this is partly the reluctance of referees to give Arsenal penalties and partly because Arsenal players were being chopped down outside the area.  Now with an additional player to mark who is pushing forward into the area, the referees are going to be hard pushed not to increase the number of penaltiees Arsenal are given.

Of course, the media don’t like statistics of this nature because they do point to something odd going on but consider this:

Premier League table at end of 2024/25 showing league position, goals scored and penalties awarded

 

 

Arsenal were in fact, 19th in the league for penalties awarded, but third in the league for goals scored and of course, second in the league in terms of points.   This is never mentioned, and of course even if it were, it could be airily dismissed as being down to the “way Arsenal play/”  But a much more likely explanation is that referees do not give Arsenal penalties.   

So buying a forward player who will run into the area and force a tackle on him, could well help undo this unjust bias against the club.

Of course, you won’t read this elsewhere because others always consider that referees get everything right, but the moment one starts to consider how referees actually do behave, it is clear that different characteristics are required from certain players.  Hence the purchases we are seeing.