• How Arsenal have handled the assault on the club by referees
• “Rattled” Arsenal are just one point behind where they were in the unbeaten season

The latest article in the Arsenal History series on 100 years in the top division is now published.

By Tony Attwood

Tottenham Hotspur are fifth in the Premier League, which I guess to some of their supporters sounds quite good.  They have 18 points.   Two points behind them on 16 points are Brentford, which sounds as if Brentford are challenging.  After all, if Brentford were to win their next game and Tottenham lose, Brentford would be above Tottenham.  Which when it happens, I always enjoy.

And I parlticcularly like it at the moment because there is an oddity in today’s league table.  For  Tottenham are 5th and Brentford 12th – and these figures show just how bunched up clubs in the top half of the table are.

Although now I come to look at the data, what is happening this season is very similar to that which happened last season – one or two clubs at the top streaking away and one or two clubs at the bottom already falling far behind.   It is, as we have noted once or twice before, getting to the point where we can predict the end of the season after just 11 games.

For example, in 2024, on 18 November, which was after 11 games, the top four in the Premier League were Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal.  At the end of the season, you may recall, the top four in order were Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea.   Same four teams; it was just that Arsenal recovered a bit to push up to second.

On 7 November 2023, after 11 league games, the table read Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur.  At the end of the 2023/24 season, the top four were Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Aston Villa.   Again, three out of four in the same position.   Tottenham in fact, slipped down to fifth.

So the point is fairly clear.  Take a look at the league table after 11 games and there is a fair chance that it is going to be very similar to the league table at the end of the season.    That doesn’t mean that we should stop attending games or stop supporting Arsenal of course, but it does just show that the top clubs not only have a good start, but also consistency, which means the rest of the league can’t catch them or match them.

In short, it seems very likely that the top four at the end of this season will be four out of the current top five.  You could place a bet on it; although I doubt you’d get very good odds.

The reason for this, of course, is consistency.   Clubs at the top go on winning runs and just keep winning.

In 1995 after close of play on 31 October 1995 the table read

 

The season ended with Aston Villa who had been 7th after 11 games, rising up to fourth.  Arsenal sank to fifth.

 

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Manchester United	38	25	7	6	73	35	38	82
2	Newcastle United	38	24	6	8	66	37	29	78
3	Liverpool	38	20	11	7	70	34	36	71
4	Aston Villa	38	18	9	11	52	35	17	63
5	Arsenal	38	17	12	9	49	32	17	63

So what is it that makes us believe that anything is possible, and that clubs can rise and fall through the course of a season, when in fact, for years, we have known, after less than a third of the season, pretty much who will win the league?

It is very much in the interest of the league and the media to pretend that, in the old Thunerbirds phrase, “anything can happen”.  And yes of course, technically it can, and occasionally it does, but not often.

So why is that?

One reason is that clubs that start badly in the league often then sack their manager, and although they might improve slightly over the months, sacking managers generally doesn’t take sides up the table.   

Now I’m not a gambler, but if I were I might fancy a flutter on three out of Burnley, West Ham United, Nottingham Forest and Wolverhampton Wanderers going down.   And I doubt that I would get very good odds on that, because the bookies tend to know how these things work, long before anyone else mentions it.

So yes, quite likely three of the top four now will be in the top four at the end of the season, and three of the bottom four now will go down.  The order of those clubs might even be the same.

Of course, my mentioning this little statistical point does mean we are likely to see headlines such as “Turkish authorities arrest eight people and suspend 1,024 players in betting investigation” which appeared in the Guardian recently.  But it is quite good to know that Arsenal have a fair chance of winning the league this season.