- What is really wrong with Premier League refereeing? We decided to find out
- Arsenal win, goals conceded cut in half, ManC vulnerability, and defence is not enough
By Tony Attwood
The current league table shows Arsenal top, of course, and our next opponents Aston Villa, in third, six points behind, scoring seven fewer and letting in seven more. Manchester City sit in between the two clubs. So on that basis things tomorrow don’t look too challenging given Arsenal’s recent form – although two draws in the last six league games isn’t qutie what we were doing eaerlier in the season. Here’s the current table:
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 7 | 20 | 33 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 28 |
| 3 | Aston Villa | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 27 |
Indeed, when we turn to our usual home v away analysis and compare Arsenal at home with Villa away, we see Arsenal way out in front, having picked up eight points more at home than Villa has away, and indeed have a +16 goal difference at home compared with Villa away.
But Villa are one of these lopsided teams that does far better at home than away, so the key table for this weekend’s game is Villa at home v Arsenal away, and indeed Villa come out best on this front. (Tables as ever from 11v11).
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Aston Villa home | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Arsenal away | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 14 |
Indeed, even if we turn away from this and look at the last six games, we find Villa doing better than Arsenal
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aston Villa | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 14 |
So, for perhaps the first time since playing Liverpool away, way back at the end of August, we are facing a team that by most metrics could have the beating of Arsenal.
Now in the last six matches, including both the Europa League and the Premier League, Aston Villa have six straight wins, but there is an issue within that run. First, if we take the Europa League games they were at home to Maccabi Tel Aviv (won 2-0) and again at home to Young Boys Berne (which Villa won 2-1). And I suspect most of us would agree that an Israeli team and a Swiss team are not exactly the same as beating an English team who are top of the league.
Yes they did it, conceding just one goal in two games while scoring four; but perhaps we should not put too much store by that.
This leaves their four league matches to consider in this run of six wins in a row. In these games, Villa have scored an impressive 11 goals and conceded just four, with victories over Bournemouth, Leeds United, Wolverhampton Wanders, in their last four league games.
| Date | Game | Res | Score |
| 09 Nov 2025 | Aston Villa v AFC Bournemouth | W | 4-0 |
| 23 Nov 2025 | Leeds United v Aston Villa | W | 1-2 |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Aston Villa v Wolverhampton Wanderers | W | 1-0 |
| 03 Dec 2025 | Brighton and Hove Albion v Aston Villa | W | 3-4 |
But in the last six games table, Bournemouth are 18th, Leeds are 19th, Wolverhampton are 20th, and only Brighton & Hove are making a decent fist of it and they are fourth.
So, of course, the league table doesn’t lie and Aston Villa are top of the last six games table, having won five and lost one, but three of those were against teams currently doing extraordinarily badly in the league and the surprise would have been any result other than a good and easy win!
That doesn’t mean it is not going to be a tough game but it does show just what a difference some easy opposition might make.
And just for the record, Arsenal’s last six games in the Premier League have been against Brentford (currently 13th), Chelsea (4th), Tottenham Ho (11th), Sunderland (6th), Burnley (19th) and Crystal Palace (5th). A bit more of a mixture of clubs doing well, clubs doing badly, and one club simply not doing.
And this is not the first time this season we have noted some odd runs in the fixture list – we might recall that Arsenal’s first six league games this season included matches against Manchester United, Liverpool, Manchester City and Newcastle United – although comments about such a run were met with rather obvious answers about everyone having to play everyone else. That of course, is true, but getting runs of very tough or fairly easy games at the start can affect the psychological outlook of players.
But we are where we are which is top of the league playing third in the league who are six points behind us, as shown at the top of this piece. And so in the next article we will consider what the referee is going to make of it all. Which leads me to a final reminder – if you are interested in the most curious ways PGMOL have of manipulating things, do have a look at our companion website Untold Referees.
