- Comparing Arsenal at home with Everton away ahead of the game
- Arsenal v Everton this weekend: early thoughts and a concern
Sam Barrott will referee tomorrow’s game, with Tim Wood and Wade Smith assisting him. Oliver Langford will be the fourth official, with Michael Salisbury on VAR and Peter Wright as the assistant VAR.
So let us compare Sam Barrott, who has overseen ten games this season in the PL, with some of the other referees who have overseen ten or more matches. Data as ever comes from Who Scored.
| Referee | Games | Fouls pg | Fouls/Tackles | Pen pg | Yel pg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Oliver | 13 | 21.92 | 0.64 | 0.08 | 2.38 |
| Anthony Taylor | 13 | 20.92 | 0.59 | 0.23 | 3.62 |
| Peter Bankes | 12 | 23.67 | 0.74 | 0.33 | 4.42 |
| Stuart Attwell | 11 | 21.00 | 0.64 | 0.45 | 4.55 |
| Simon Hooper | 10 | 24.80 | 0.70 | 0.10 | 4.70 |
| Samuel Barrott | 10 | 20.60 | 0.59 | 0.40 | 4.20 |
| Variation | 20% | 25% | 4362% | 97% |
So let’s try to understand this. The referee who sees the most fouls sees 20% more fouls per game than the referee who sees the fewest fouls. And this is not just for one game; this is the average per game, with all these referees having overseen ten or more games this season.
Worse, when we measure the number of tackles that these referees see as fouls, the number rises from 59% of tackles being seen as fouls by one referee to 74% of tackles seen as fouls by another.
And do remember this is not across one game – this is the average of all the tackles seen by the refs in their Premier League this season.
But it is when we look at the number of penalties given per game that the figures go haywire. Atwell sees four and a half times as many fouls as Hooper per game.
As for yellow cards, Hooper gives out almost twice as many as Oliver in each game.
So, quite clearly, any sensible manager will look at which referee he has and warn his players how to approach the game. Any bent manager will possibly approach a referee known for giving out lots of cards and seek to influence that ref to give them to the opposition, not his players.
This is not to say that all referees should be equal in their decision-making – football is a fast-moving game needing quick decision-making. But these refs now have VAR to help them, so how can one referee with VAR be seeing four times as many penalties as another?
Looking at this data, we can see that Arsenal’s referee is a penalty giver and a yellow card waver, so Arsenal defenders need to adjust their game to be very careful of tackles in the penalty area.
But this, of course, is not how it should be. It should not be a question of adjusting play according to which referee is overseeing the game – it should be about the rules of the game.
Now we look at the referee bias in terms of results. There should not be any bias here either, of course, but there is.
So now let us have a look at how these variations affect the result. If all referees saw games equally, and if they were allocated games at random, then the percentage of home wins, away wins and draws each saw should be fairly even.
But what we find is that while Peter Bankes sees 75% of his games as home wins, Simon Hooper only sees 20% of his games as home wins. In short, if you want to place a bet on home winners, beware any game Hooper is in charge of.
What Hooper sees over and over are away wins. But if you are betting on draws, look out for thegames overseen by Barrott.
| Games | HomeWin% | AwayWin% | Draw% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Bankes | 12 | 75.0 | 16.7 | 8.3 |
| Simon Hooper | 10 | 20.0 | 50.0 | 30.0 |
| Samuel Barrott | 10 | 50.0 | 10.0 | 40.0 |
Of course, it should never be like this. I am not suggesting that every ref should have an average figure for each type of result, but variations like this are ludicrous. Bankes sees over three times as many home wins as Hooper. And PGMO think this is ok, and we can tell that because they are doing nothing about it, such as taking both refs off for retraining. But how can this possibly be ok?
My guess is that PGMO have either a) got the media under their thumb, with an agreement between themselves and the media that the media do not criticise refs, or b) they know refereeing in the Premier League is pretty hit and miss they feel it is easier to laugh at us fans making a fuss, than for them to get involved in a debate that could bring down the whole credibility of the Premier League and PGMO.
Now, I must stress, such conclusions are based just on these figures. I am not a referee; I have no extra insight. But if PGMO believe that everything is fine, then I would invite them to come out and explain these differences openly so we, the paying public, all know what is going on.
As it happens, it looks like this time we are safe . Barrott is not as home-biased as Banks, but he gives the home team an equal chance.
And here’s a final point. It was said to me that when I see that we have a ref whose attitude and past results could help Arsenal, then I ought ot shut up and let it happen. But I feel if I did that, I would be reducing myself to the level of PGMO, and that I really can’t do.
The facts are: the result of games depends on which refs you get; anyone who studies the stats can see that; the media never says a word about that.
So I say, we are being taken for a ride, and I ask, why are we putting up with this?
