Why making predictions early is not always a good idea

 

 

By Tony Attwood

I always find it interesting when we have headlines such as “Brian Brobbey’s late Sunderland leveller turns up heat on Frank at Tottenham”  along with “Liam Rosenior arrives in London to discuss taking over as Chelsea manager” simply because all the statistics show that most managerial changes – especially those mid-season – don’t actually do much good in the long term.

Obviously, a few work – Arteta is one perfect example of a situation in which an outgoing manager had totally lost it, and a new man was needed urgently, and in that case we got the right new man.  Although it took two seasons to turn the club around.   But generally it doesn’t help.

The most obvious example of managerial changes not helping is of course, Tottenham where just in this present decade was have had Jose Mourinho, Ryan Mason, Nuno Espirito Santo, Antonio Conte, Cristian Telgging,  Ryan Mason, Ange Postecoglou and Thomas Frank as managers.  

And now it sees yet another a new man is sought.    And yes of course I know that the Totts have won a trophy and Arenal have not – but then it would seem that even the Totts didn’t value the Europa League victory that much since that manager (Ange) was sacked too.  Apparently, West Ham think he might be worth a bash, at least according to newspaper rumours.

Although according to one Tottenham facing site the ex-West Ham manager Slaven Bilic is the favourite to take over the land of the tiny totts.   Seemingly, the not-always-accurate talkSport has suggested he is ready to answer the SOS call.

But what is extraordinary is that club owners, and indeed many club supporters, still think that changing a manager is a way forward, despite the fact that Tottenham have had over 20 permanent and temporary managers this century alone.

I would also say that “still, I suppose they know what they are doing,” but actually, I don’t think they do.   Any more than Chelsea (a club that is part of the BlueCo consortium – a body which seems to be out to prove that one organisation owning clubs in several countries doesn’t automatically win titles)

 

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Arsenal 20 15 3 2 40 14 26 48
2 Manchester City 20 13 3 4 44 18 26 42
3 Aston Villa 20 13 3 4 33 24 9 42
4 Liverpool 20 10 4 6 32 28 4 34
5 Chelsea 20 8 7 5 33 22 11 31

 

Of course, Arsenal are not totally absent from the issues of owning multiple clubs – LA Rams, Denver Nuggets, Colorado Avalanche, Colorado Rapids, and Colorado Mammoth are all owned by Arsenal’s owners, but they seem to be allowed to take their team and get on with chasing down the billion-plus Dirham the Manc owners have invested.

The trouble is, having British ownership by itself doesn’t seem to deliver the goods either, as Tottenham have found out.   In fact, looking at tables and results, we can say quite clearly that neither having a foreign owner nor changing the manager with a regularity that suggests other clubs think Tottenham is a model to be followed rather than one to be avoided, is a good idea.

What seems to work is finding a good manager and sticking with him – although of course, having access to huge amounts of money helps too.

But for now, we can look at the statistics and be happy that Arsenal have scored the sdecond highest number of goals in the Premier League (not that you might have picked it up from commentaries in the media), have the best defence in the league, have the equal best goal difference in the league, and are six points clear at the top.  All of which seems quite satisfactory to me.

Oh yes, and we are not only top of the Premier League but also top of the league over the last six games, which is always a helpful measure, as it does show if current form matches the form of the club through the season.  Indeed, Tottenham’s problem at the moment, they are halfway down that “last six” table, suggesting that no great revival is being experienced within the club just now.

And just while contemplating such matters, it is also perhaps worth noting in passing that the top group of clubs looking to rise from the Championship at the end of this season are unlikely to cause many of the top Premier League clubs much concern, for they are Coventry, Middlesbrough, Ipswich Town, Preston and Millwall.  But what we can note is that the yo-yo effect of clubs bouncing up and down seems to have been put on hold for a while, as only Ipswich from last year’s PL seem to be pushing for promotion.  

But of course, now we await Thursday: Arsenal v Liverpool at 8pm.  And it seems like centuries ago that Arsenal lost 1-0 to Liverpool (actually it was just 127 days), leaving Arsenal third in the league on the same number of points as Everton (now 12th) and Tottenham (now 13th), and leading to calls for Arteta to be replaced.

It really doesn’t do to make predictions too early.

 

3 Replies to “Why making predictions early is not always a good idea”

  1. Are you going to have the good grace to acknowledge that the media, that you hate so much, are praising the Arsenal team (since you always accuse them of Arsenal-bashing).

    The reality is the media goes too far in bashing a team and too far in praising them. If they can be accused of anything it is the sin of blowing too much in the wind.

    But I dont expect you to have the grace to acknowledge the praise.

  2. OK Andrew – so if you think I don’t have the grace to acknowledge praise, why do you keep reading this blog?

  3. Andrew Banks,
    While there has been praise in the media lately for Arsenal, there’s usually a ‘but’ as well. In the build up to the Villa match most media outlets were saying it’d be Arsenal’s biggest test of the season. They cited all of the team and Emery’s attributes, omitting of course that they just don’t score enough to really challenge for the title. When Arsenal put Villa to the sword it was ‘good win but can they sustain it?’. Gyokeres can’t score, the defense keeps getting injured, etc. I didn’t see ‘Arsenal convincingly pass the test’ anywhere. Did you?
    I don’t think the race is done and dusted but I like Arsenal’s position better than anyone else’s.

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