By Tony Attwood
Football journalists like to tell us what is “really” going on in the world of football, suggesting that the image held by us “mere fans” is misleading and warped. We are Arsenal fans, so we only see Arsenal’s positive side, they claim. And then they use that notion to publish any sort of tripe they like.
The reality is that over the past ten years, many Arsenal supporters have come to see that what is reported in the papers is more often fantasy and make-believe than reality. Arsenal are bidding for Marc Guehi, we are told, for example. We don’t know if that is true, but the papers are saying it, which at one time might have meant, possibly, it was true. Now we suspect, probably not, given that only three in every 100 transfer rumours about Arsenal in recent years has been true.
Then there are the ex-players who are not managers, and have not been managers (at least as far as I know). And apparently, they can tell us stuff. “Ian Wright questions Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal signing after Liverpool draw“. Whether Mr Wright actually said whatever it was, or whether he said in a different context, we often do know.
Or how about David Ornstein says Arsenal now in talks to sign Premier League ‘superstar’ from Give me Sport. Really? Talks with whom? How does GMS know?
Yet there are several things we know about these alleged transfers. The first is that only three in every 100 actually result in the named player coming to Arsenal. We know that because over several years we have gone so far as to note down every transfer we could find in the media day by day as reported via NewsNow Arsenal and similar sources, and then when the window closed, we checked to see how many had actually arrived. Each time, the result was something around 3%. Or put another way, 97% eof the players who we were told were coming to Arsenal didn’t.
Now I do have one or two contacts in the media world, although of course there is no way they will allow me to report who they are, for fear of getting the sack. But I put the point to them, and although none would admit that they actually made the transfers up, I think we reached the mutual understanding that some tales stretch reality to the very edge of believability. Which, of course, everyone has to admit if they are being really honest, given that only 3% of the transfer tales come to pass each window.
But there is now a bigger issue, I think, and that is that of managers; an issue which I have touched on before. But today I have been having a search to find out just how many clubs and managers move around each season.
Two measures that can be used. The number of clubs that have changed managers, and the total number of changes, the latter being bigger than the former, because some clubs can change managers more than once in a season. These figures come from TransferMarkt, and they exclude temporary managers – although if you click on the links to that site of origin, you will see figures for the temps also.
This season, five Premier League clubs (25%) have changed managers, with a total of six changes (one club having changed managers twice). The top number of Premier League clubs changing managers in recent seasons has been 11 in 2022/23 (55%) and in fact, in that season, there were 18 changes – six at the end of the season and the rest during the season, some clubs changing more than once.
But there is no consistent move to a greater or lower number of changes
| Season | Clubs that change managers | Actual changes | Clubs changing managers more than once |
| 25/26 | 5 | 6 | 1 |
| 24/25 | 8 | 10 | 2 |
| 23/24 | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| 22/23 | 11 | 18 | 7 |
| 21/22 | 9 | 11 | 2 |
| 20/21 | 8 | 9 | 1 |
| 19/20 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
| 18/19 | 8 | 10 | 2 |
| 17/18 | 10 | 15 | 5 |
| 16/17 | 8 | 13 | 5 |
Now the number of clubs that change managers varies season by season. In 2022/23 there was an all-time record of 14 clubs changing managers in the season, although something closer to half is the norm.
And of course, clubs change managers for one of two reasons. One is that they have had enough of their manager, who they think is not doing a good job. So we might think about Manchester United sacking Ruben Amorim this month, Nottingham Forest sacking Nuno Espirito Santo and West Ham removing Graham Potter at the end of last year.
But that’s only half the deal. Because with getting on for half the clubs sacking their managers, and around half the clubs having very disgruntled supporters, that really does mean getting on for half the clubs in the Premier League are looking for a new manager each season.
Yet there are very few new managers around. Increasingly, managers from outside the UK see the Premier League as a nut house where managers are sacked because… well, that’s what you do. So the pool of good managers who might be persuaded to join a PL club reduces year on year, while the number of sackings remains insanely high.
This is not a serious, well-run business world, but a bunch of nutcase billionaires throwing money around. Of course, some get it right. Arsenal is obviously one. And ManC have linked their untold billions with a man who knows how to find great players. And who else? Brentford, given their limited resources? Any more?
