- The referee today is Craig Pawson and the issue of referee variance
- How Arsenal use the team game to baffle everyone else
By Tony Attwood
This morning’s football headlines from the Guardian website have two leads that particularly caught my attention
Slot says Liverpool ‘ran out of energy’ in defeat at Bournemouth
and
Thomas Frank calls for ‘calm heads’ as Tottenham fans renew calls for his exit
And they caught my attention because both try the old trick of finding simplistic explanations and changes in the face of profound and complex difficulties – and the history of football is littered with examples of such strategies failing.
But for now, we might contemplate a league table that this morning reads, in part…
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 22 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 14 | 26 | 50 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 47 | 21 | 26 | 46 |
| 3 | Aston Villa | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 25 | 8 | 43 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 35 | 32 | 3 | 36 |
| 5 | Manchester United | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 38 | 32 | 6 | 35 |
| 14 | Tottenham Hotspur | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 33 | 31 | 2 | 28 |
…and we might conclude that things are not looking too bad. Of course, the fact that we might say in alarm, “Our lead is down to just four points” shows just how far ahead we have come this year. Last year after 23 matches, Arsenal had 47 points. This year at the very least, it will be 50, and quite possibly 53. That’s progress.
Meanwhile, we have been taking a look at the referee – Craig Pawson – and his attributes and behavioural tendencies. Yesterday, we looked at him in terms of fouls and yellow cards, but not the sort of results his refereeing produces. So we will now move on to those.
Pawson has overseen 12 Premier League games this season. 33.3% of these have been home wins. This compares with Peter Bankes, for whom 75% of his 16 games have been home wins, and Robert Jones, for whom 61.5% of his 13 games have been home wins. And these are not the only men who tend to see home wins even before the game has started. Anthony Taylor has 50% of his games as home wins, and Chris Kavanagh has 52.9%. Clearly, the PGMO don’t want Arsenal to have that sort of advantage today. (Although maybe ManU have a man on the inside – with such a fantastically hyper-secfret organisation, one never knows).
Fairly obviously, PGMO has wanted to give Manchester United a fighting chance here by picking a ref who tends to see a lower number of home wins, match by match. And it is as we look further into these figures that the sheer and absolute oddity of Mr P’s results becomes clear, because not only are a third of his games home wins, a third have been away wins and a third draws. I’ve heard of balancing the books, but this is utterly ridiculous.
In fact, none of the top ten referees on PGMO books (in terms of games overseen this season) have a lower percentage of home wins this season. Thus PGMO really are trying to make this hard for Arsenal. And we might compare the figures with Anthony Taylor (18 games) on 50% home wins, or Peter Bankes with 75% home wins or Robert Jones with 61.5% home wins.
No, PGMO have given Arsenal a man for whom, in two-thirds of his games this season, the home team has not won the match.
In fact, Manchester United officials and players must have been having a night of celebration when they saw the appointment, because Craig Pawson is one of the referees most likely to see an away victory in games he officiates in the Premier League.
We can of course, be pleased we are not getting Jarred Gillet, for whom half of the Premier League games he has officiated this season are away wins, but even so, something closer to the average for the whole league would be more welcome. Arsenal can expect some very dubious calls this afternoon.
But looking at some of the Manu recent games can restore some hope for Arsenal, with a defeat to Aston Villa and draws against Leeds United and Burnley, all away from home. And we might also note the game on 30 December last year, where Manchester United were home to the mighty Wolverhampton Wanderers and got a 1-1 draw. Wolverhampton have played 12 away games this season, won nil, and drawn three.
So yes, Manu have beaten us more than we have beaten them, but not in the last half dozen games where it has been five wins to Arsenal and one draw.
Of course those of us who have been around for a few years will remember the long era in which ManU did rather well in terms of the league. That stopped in 2012/13 and they have won four pots since then, and (again) of course for that they deserve credit, but in terms of the league, it has not been such a good story.
For in the last five years, they have come 3rd, 6th, 7th, 8th and 15th in the Premier League (although not in that order). For comparison in the last five seasons Arsenal have come 8th, 5th, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd. And I think that the Arsenal positions do show a consistent progression, especially with the league table currently showing Manchester United sitting 15 points below Arsenal with a goal difference that is 20 goals worse off than Arsenal’s.
Kick off is at 4.30pm and the game is on Sky.
