Is this the worst quality Premier League in its history?

 

 

• • “Arsenal have the most insufferable fans in football”
  • Is watching Arsenal like having your eyes descaled by a wire brush

By Nitram

It seems no matter what Arsenal do or how they play, it is never enough to silence the endlessly critical media. We win the wrong way. We score the wrong way. We play the wrong way.   Basically, we are rubbish, and if we do happen to win the Premier league all it means is the rest were even more rubbish. In fact, by all accounts, this is the worst quality Premier League in its history. Well, at least if Arsenal win it, it is.

So I thought I’d try to see on what basis this claim is being made. And the way to do this is to compare and contrast, because without any context, opinions, and even data, are worthless. So let’s take a look behind some numbers and see if there is indeed any justification behind the notion that this is “The Worst Premier Quality League In It’s History.”

Let’s start with Arsenal. We currently sit top of the league thus:

Played 24.  Points 53.  Goals scored 46.   Goals conceded 17.   Goal Difference 29

If we continue accruing points, scoring and conceding at the same rates, we will end up thus:

Played 38.  Points 84.   Goals scored 72.  Goals conceded 27.   Goal Difference: 45

So, a decent points haul. a reasonable number of goals scored, a very low level of goals against, and thus a great Goal Difference.

But according to a large section of the media and many bloggs if we do win the title in such a manner, this simply proves the Premier League is the worst it has ever been. Well let’s compare and contrast because, as I said, without perspective, numbers mean very little.

So by way of contrast, I first looked at four of Manchester United’s title-winning seasons in which their final points tally was below that of what Arsenal are on target for, and none of which were criticised in any way, shape or form:

 

Season	Points	Goals for	Goals against	Goal difference	Won title by…
1996/97	75	76	44	32	7 points
1998/99	79	80	39	31	1 point
2000/01	80	79	31	48	10 points
2010/11	80	78	37	40	9 points
Average	78.5	78	38	40	7 points

 

So, unless something goes spectacularly wrong, we will accrue more points than any gained in those Manchester United title-winning seasons. We will score just six fewer goals than their average. We will let in 13 fewer than their average, and with a goal difference of five goals better than their average.

Though not spectacular, these figures are still better than all those Manchester United title-winning seasons, and yet I certainly don’t recall anyone suggesting those were the ‘worst Premier Leagues’ ever.

It appears then that winning the title on a comparatively low number of points and not by a particularly spectacular margin doesn’t equate to a poor-quality Premier League. So, on what basis is this year being classed as such? Is it because we may, in fact, accrue a large amount of points? After all, 84 is above the Premier League average for the last dozen or so years, and well above its historical level if you go back further.

Could it be that we may win the title at a stroll (if only!)?  Well, if achieving a large number of points, and or winning the title by a large margin is the stick with which to beat us, what do we make of Manchester City over the last decade or so?

These are a selection of their title-winning campaigns, none of which were belittled on the basis that the quality of the Premier League was poor:

2011/12: 89 points; winning the title on GD. But here’s the thing, the top two teams were 19 points ahead of the rest: Does this point to a weak Premier League?

2017/18: 100 points, winning the title by a massive 19 points. Did that mean everyone else was rubbish or that Manchester City were brilliant?

2020/21: 86 points, winning the title by 12 points. Another stroll. Another poor Premier League?

20222/23: 89 points, winning the title by 5 points, but again the front two were 14 points ahead of third. Another poor premier league OR 2 exceptional sides?

And one final point: Chelsea. It appears that when it came to them playing pragmatic, well-organised football, the quality of the Premier League was never questioned. In fact, if you look back, they were hailed as the blueprint for how a team should play. And remember this: at the same time, Wenger’s exuberant, ebullient, magnificent-to- watch Arsenal were ridiculed on a daily basis.

Thus, low points total, high points total, large gap or small gap, free-flowing or pragmatic styles… none of these have EVER been an indicator of a poor quality Premier League. Until, of course, Arsenal look like winning it.

No matter how we play, what we do, there is always a way the media will turn it into a negative. It has ever been so.