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- What makes a abig club and who is to blame for Tottenham’s demise?
By Tony Attwood
At the moment, Arsenal have 57 points out of 26 games, and of course, we all know they are top of the league. But as in the past, I have again wondered just how this campaign compares with other seasons. Yes of course, I know we are top, but I wondered, just how do things look beyond that? Here’s a comparison chart… the best season for each attribute is in bod red.
| Pos | Year | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2022 | 26 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 43 | 29 | 14 | 51 |
| 1 | 2023 | 26 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 59 | 25 | 34 | 63 |
| 3 | 2024 | 26 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 62 | 23 | 39 | 58 |
| 2 | 2025 | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 51 | 23 | 28 | 53 |
| 1 | 2026 | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 18 | 32 | 57 |
Now immediately, we could say that the current team is not as good as in 2023, a year in which we finished the season in second place, even though we were top of the league after 26 games. We might also note that the number of goals scored by the 26-game marker is lower than in any of the last three seasons in which we finished second.
But then again, this is the best defence we have had in years. In 2023 we had scored nine more goals than now. But on the other hand, we have conceded five or fewer goals fewer than in each of the previous years shown above.
As for the points, we are six behind our total after this many games in 2023 – when again we came second.
What we can draw from this immediately is that one season is not exactly like the next. Just look at the top of the league for the recent seasons and then in the final row a bit of imagination of what might happen if everything ran wonderfully.
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City 2022 | 38 | 29 | 6 | 3 | 99 | 26 | 73 | 93 |
| Manchester City 2023 | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
| Manchester City 2024 | 38 | 28 | 7 | 3 | 96 | 34 | 62 | 91 |
| Liverpool 2025 | 38 | 25 | 9 | 4 | 86 | 41 | 45 | 84 |
| Arsenal 2026 | 38 | 29 | 6 | 3 | 74 | 18 | 56 | 93 |
In that final row I’ve assumed Arsenal will win each and every remaining game 2-0 – which of course is ludicrous, but it does show that if shch a record continued Arsenal would in fact have the lowest number of goals scored by a winning team, by far the best defence of a winning team, the fourth out ot five best goal difference of a winning team, and the number of points to equal Mancheseter City’s achievement of 2022.
And you might of course say, quite reasonably, we ain’t gonna win those games or keep all those clean sheets.
But there is another much more important point here, for even leaving aside this season’s results, the range of goal difference in the last four seasons has been 28 goals, and there has been a nine-point gap between the most and least points scored
Last season, the league winners got 84 points. In 2024, it was 91 points, in 2023 it was 89 points, and in 2022 it was 93. So on that basis Arsenal winning all their matches ought to come top.
But in reality Arsenal does not have to match the top points achievements of recent years, merelythey need to end up with one point above the club in second place. So if we look at second place in recent years, we see
- 2025: Arsenal 74 points
- 2024: Arsenal: 89 points
- 2023: Arsenal 84 points
- 2022: Liverpool 92 points
- 2021: Manchester United: 74 points
- 2020: Manchester City: 81 points.
So the average number of points of the second-placed team across this decade is 82.33 points – let’s say 83. Working on this very hypothetical basis, Arsenal need 84 points to win an average league season this decade.
At this moment, Arsenal have 57 points and 12 games to play. So in those 12 games, Arsenal need 26 points. That could be gained by nine wins, or eight victories and two draws with two defeats, or seven victories, five draws and no defeats.
Of course, these are all hypothetical numbers for a hypothetically average season. And of course, I know many people decry all types of hypothetical projections. But having had to do a fair amount of number crunching at university many decades ago, I did learn the value of projections like this. For the first thing they tell us is whether something is actually possible. If not, let’s forget it. But if it is possible, is it likely? Should we keep hoping?
These numbers are all based on reaching the average number of points that have gained a league title in recent years. But of course, Manchester City could win every game left to them this season and thus gain 89 points. However, Arsenal’s maximum possible total is 93. And then there is the little matter of the fact that the two clubs play each other on April 18th, which might have something to do with the final outcome.
So what does this tell us? Apart from the fact that 89points could win the league, and that beating Manchester City on April 18th could help, and oh yes we also have to play ManC on March 22 in the League Cup final, and then there are also all those Champions League games to play which could also involve another couple against ManC…. well maybe it is not quite so easy to work it out after all.
But perhaps it is nice to know, it is all still possible, while by this point in most seasons, it normally isn’t.
