Tottenham v Arsenal. Arsenal once more find themselves playing 12 men

 

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by Tony Attwood

The PGMOL have appointed Peter Bankes will be the referee for today’s Arsenal game.

He is one of the top awarders of fouls, giving over 22 fouls per game on average comapred with Anthony Taylor on 20 fouls a game so around 6% more fouls seen by our referee today than by Taylor. 

But more importantly, what Bankes does is he tends to see tackles more commonly as fouls than other referees who undertake a lot of games.   14% more than referee Taylor for example.    So Arsenal need to keep those tackles in midfield and certainly not tackle very close to goal, unless there is absolutely nothing else that can be done.

Bankes is also one of the refs who gives out penalties at the slightest chance – he has this season given out over five times as many penalties as Michael Oliver, which really is utterly extraordinary.  Indeed, if only the media would focus on referees just once a week, surely this would be one of the scandals they would pick up and something could be done about it.

Bankes is also one of the highest givers of yellow cards, running at an average of four a game, (half as many again as Oliver).  In fact, he has given out 72 so far this season compared with Oliver, who has overseen three more games but still only waved 58 yellows.  The notion of consistency was abandoned long ago.

But it is when we turn to the results of his matches that we can see first why PGMO have selected this man for this game, and second why the media are not saying a word about the referee. 

Of the 18 Premier League games that Peter Bankes has overseen this season 77.8% of them have ended as home wins.   

In short, with this referee, Tottenham start with an overwhelming advantage.   Out of his 18 PL games, Bankes has only seen two draws and two away wins!!!!  That is way beyond the average.

Which is why I have added the headline that Arsenal are playing 12 men.   11 from Tottenham obviously, and a referee who ensures that over three quarters of his games end as home wins. 

Now of course, you can say that one can prove anything with statistics (you can’t actually, but of course, people who find stats they don’t like do say that).   And you can say that this is down to pure chance.

But then we should also remember that just recently we made a fuss about the fact that Arsenal suffered a last-minute change in the referee for the game with Brentford.  Our headline before the match was “Brentford v Arsenal: with the teams evenly matched the change of referee could be decisive” and it was.   The game was switched from a referee who often oversaw away wins at the last moment, and he was replaced by a referee whose previous results show him to be much more favourable to home teams.   

Indeed, it was Arsenal’s efforts in observing this change and understanding what it meant for them on the pitch that allowed the club even to get a single point from the game.

Now PGMO are going further once again and giving Tottenham a referee who hardly knows the meaning of a draw or an away win.

Of course, you could suggest that “it all evens out in the end” and that every club “getseach referee” but this is absolutely not the case.  No matter what statistic you take you find a major difference between referees and which clubs see which refs.  Take yellow cards as one – some referees on average give twice as many yellows as other referees.  Some referees see seven more fouls a game – in each and every game – than others..     And some referees see over three-quarters of their matches as home wins, while others see just one quarter of their games as home wins.   And those are referees who have already overseen between 14 and 18 league games this season, plus FA Cup and League Cup matches.

This then is not a level playing field, and the selection of referees isa vital factor in determining the result.  And in this case clearly biased against Arsenal.

So this is not like saying that the draw for the FA Cup is fixed because Arsenal have had several lower league teams as opponents in a row.   To prove that point, one would have to look across maybe half a dozen seasons to have enough evidence,l and that would obviously show that Arsenal are not, over time, getting more lower league teams as opponents in the cup.

But with referees, the statistics are clear and available for all to read.  This link takes you to the relevant page if you want to follow it up.   And your TV and radio, plus the daily newspapers, will reveal just how much (or in fact how incredibly rarely) the media mentions referees as a variable.

Arsenal are fighting on their own here, and more than anything, they need support, not criticism or wild notions of the FA Cup draw being fixed.