What might happen if Tottenham get relegated?

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By Tony Attwood

There has been little talk about what happens if Tottenham go down, and some suggestions that the quality of the team will probably bring them back up.  But much of this discussion misses out on the issue of their debt. One season in the Championship, clearly not ideal from a fan’s point of view, also reduces the income of the club.  And there is no guarantee they would immediately come straight back up.

Now I know some people shrug this sort of view off with thoughts of simply borrowing more, but for Tottenham, there is a problem, because although I can’t see any formally audited data, it seems to be that the club currently owes over £300m in unpaid transfer fees to other clubs alone.

Of course, owing this amount of money is not unusual for clubs that have been buying and selling regularly, but a club that goes down gives its own players a much lower profile, and this in turn reduces their value on the transfer market.   Also of course, the club that has descended to the lower reaches wants to hold onto its best players so it bounces straight back up.

Indeed, those clubs that go down, and then struggle in the Championship or even go down again, do so because they can’t afford to pay their best players.   True, the money can come out of shareholders’ pockets, but the restrictions on this sort of thing have got greater over time, making it harder for clubs to try and borrow money to buy players to survive in the Premier League. Besides, if it is true, as some argue, that Tottenham didn’t pay anything for their stadium, then th peoplewho did are not likely to come up with any more cash if the club goes down.  

Of course, the club that goes down gets maybe £200m parachute payments, but even that doesn’t cover TV, advertising, European and other money now not coming in.  Indeed, parachute payments don’t even compensate for the massive reduction in TV money – down by 75%.

Further, Tottenham have bought players who were expected to take them up the league, and are paying good salaries to these men whose value has now shrunk.  With relegation, their value shrinks even more.  

Now those in the know about Tottenham’s finances do also say that Tottenham has managed to keep its wages bill under control, this out of necessity because of the huge cost of the stadium, and the lack of income from the lack of a naming sponsor for the stadium.  (And if it is true, as some say that Tottenham never owned the stadium but pay rent to the owner, then his demands will still be there).

It is said that Tottenham’s wages are already below those of many other clubs and that will make the problem less severe if they go down – although if they stay up, the pressure to increase wages will be very strong once again.  If they don’t oblige, then bringing in new players who can help the club avoid another low finish in the Premier League will itself be difficult.   After all, most players’ agents know what the other players in the League are already getting.

Tottenham do have a wages bill that is much lower than, for example, Arsenal’s, and that is one of the prime reasons as to why they are in the trouble they are in.  For lower salaries mean it is harder to attract the best players to come to Tottenham.  

So the problem goes round and round.  Tottenham need some better players, and if they don’t go down that need will still be there.  But if these newcomers are offered better salaries, then everyone else will be agitating for better salaries.  After all, their argument will be, “we did the right thing by the club and accepted lower salaries because the club was short of money.   But now you are spending more on new players – where is our reward for what we did last season?

It is an argument that other clubs that have come up and then hovered around relegation have had before.   The club wants a season of profit to pay off some debts, but the players want wages that recognise their efforts.

And if Tottenham do go down?   The income shrinks dramatically, and those unsold naming rights will now only be worth a fraction of what they were being offered for a year ago.    Of course, fans might like winning the Championship, although it would be a bit of a come-down after the Europa League last campaign.  But fans will certainly expect to be paying less for their season tickets in a year of playing derbies against Millwall, Charlton and QPR.