Arsenal v Chelsea and the theory of dips (and how they can hurt)

 

 

• Arsenal v Chelsea? What will referee Darren England do this time?
• Arsenal v Chelsea: was Chelsea worth all the money?

By Tony Attwood

Last weekend at the home of the tiny totts the opposition had the banner than read “North Ldn since 1882,”  It probably took a little while to make and it got reported quite a lot by the ever-obedient media, but I wonder if those who made it thought it was worth the effort.  Although I suppose it did distract from the fact that they are now merely four points above relegation.   I wonder if they will wave it again next season if they are in the Championship, getting much less money from gate receipts, and having worked themselves through another couple of managers.   As is their wont.

Chelsea (who of course, we play today), meanwhile, are sixth, and they too might also engage in what the media like to call “banter” to distract from their position.   After all, they are only 16 points behind Arsenal.

But there can be no doubt that everyone knows the importance of today’s Premier League games, of which the Arsenal / Chelsea match will be the last of the run.  Of course, if Arsenal fans ever declined to the level of Tottenham supporters and their many pals in the media, there would be an Arsenal banner saying something about never being Russian-owned, but I am not sure it actually matters or makes any difference.  Who speaks of ownership when a club wins the league?

After all let us imagine that it does make a difference that Tottenham have been in north London for longer than Arsenal.   I still don’t think that wins them a trophy.  Or indeed does anything other than reflect on the dexterity of the human mind to find an excuse, even when everything is against you.

Chelsea’s problem this season, however, is different.  Like so many teams, they have what we generally call “blips” in their performances, which result in games drawn which could have been won etc.   The key point within such issues is not so much how to avoid these runs of poor results altogether but rather how to keep them as short as possible.

For example (and here we only take league games into consideration), they had their first drop in form in mid-to late September with a draw against Brentford and then consecutive defeats to ManU and Brighton and Hove.

But the second run was much worse.  It started on 30 November and ran through to 7 Januuary icnluding one win, five draws, and three defeats (and here and throughout we are just taking league matches in the examples).

That dip ended with three successive wins in as decisive a way as any of announcing that the tip is over as there can be.  But the main problem with that end-of-dip episode was that none of their victories was against anything like top teams.    That leaves a bit of psychological doubt, and this showed as the club then drew with Leeds United and Burnley in the last two games.

Now the whole point of describing a club’s progress through the season is that dips are part bad luck, part poor play and part psychological.  The players and indeed the fans know that a decline in form is going on and there is a real feeling that the club has “got to win this one”.  That extra set of nervousness does no one any good, and so one slip on the pitch can lead to a goal against (or even just a near miss against) and players start thinking “it’s happening again”.  And then it does.

As we have noted repeatedly, this is not an area that the media like to explore because it takes us into the difficult realm of feelings and psychology, but the fact that dips can be found in so many clubs’ runs of form shows that they are real.

The clubs that win things do not let a single defeat turn into a run of defeats or maybe defeats and draws.  And here we may note that Chelsea don’t historically have that psychological stamina to come out of a bad result instantly and put on a brilliant display.   But do Arsenal?

Arsenal’s first defeat of the season was followed by a run of 11 games undefeated, including three draws.   Arsenal’s second defeat (to Villa) was followed by five straight wins.  Arsenal’s current run of three wins and two draws may not turn out to be a dip at all – and for that, the players need to show this with a firm win today.

We will be top of the league no matter what, but for the sake of the psychology of the players, that needs to be back to the five points we have got used to.

 

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	28	18	7	3	56	21	35	61
2	Manchester City	28	18	5	5	57	25	32	59
3	Aston Villa	28	15	6	7	38	30	8	51
4	Manchester United	27	13	9	5	48	37	11	48
5	Liverpool	28	14	6	8	47	37	10	48
6	Chelsea	27	12	9	6	48	31	17	45