Arsenal v Fulham: the referee – Jarred Gillett for the third time

But when we measure the number of tackles a player can get away with before committing a foul, we find the most lenient referee allows players to commit around 39% mjore tackles without calling a foul than the most whistle-ready referee.

When we come to penalties, we see some referees giving out nine times as many penalties as others!   Finally, with yellow cards, we see some referees handing out twice as many as others when we look at their figures across the season. Gillet, we find, is the lowest referee on the fouls per game chart, mid-table for penalties, and lower mid-table for yellow cards. Which is interesting.  He doesn’t see fouls nearly so often as other referees, but he still manages to be mid-range for spotting penalties, and not too far off mid-range for handing out cards – all of which is curious.

But now when we come to look at the figures for Jarred Gillett in terms of results, we find they are utterly extraordinary.   We know that home wins are the most likely outcome of any particular game in the Premier League.  This wasn’t the case during the pandemic when the number of home wins declined and the number of away wins greatly increased, and our analysis at the time suggested that it was the crowd or lack of crowd that influenced the officials.  Figures are from WhoScored

In short, have one referee, and you might have a 16% chance of winning a home match, but with another referee, you are up to a 68% chance of winning.  Have one referee, and you have an 18% chance of winning an away game, but with another ref it is over 52%.

Now of course, for this game, having Gillett as a referee with Arsenal playing at home looks disastrous, since the majority – yes the actual majority – of his games will be away wins.  But he does still see some home wins, and Arsenal have gained 56% of their points this season at home, so all is not lost.

But in looking at this table for the first time in a while (courtesy of Soccer Stats who have published it). Arsenal get 56% of their points at home and score 58% of their goals at home.   Fulham’s comparative figures show that they get 33% of their points away from home and score 36% of their goals away from home.   Those figures would suggest that Arsenal is most likely to win this game on both counts.

And just to round this off, in looking at this chart for the first time, I noticed that Tottenham Hots get only 32% of their points at home, which is I think the lowest in the Premier League this season.     They score only 47% of their goals at home and concede 57% of their points away from home.

These latter figures are not the highest in each category but contrast with the figures of successful clubs that tend to make their home something of a fortress both for winning games and scoring more goals.  It just confirms the disaster that the Tottenham “upgrade” of their stadium has been, and shows that not every stadium move is as successful as Arsenal’s.   Maybe it was Wenger what done it.