By Bulldog Drummond
Before the matches this weekend the story was that “If Tottenham and Chelsea both win and Arsenal don’t beat Brighton, they won’t be able to qualify for the Champions League via the league.”
As it was even the traditionally pro-Tottenham media had to back off their latest display, the Guardian noting “they were fortunate not to lose Eric Dier to another red card. Apart from two sent off they got five yellow cards.
Meanwhile, Brighton’s Premier League status was sorted yesterday as Cardiff went down. Here’s Brighton’s run…
| Date | Game | Res | Score | Competition |
| 17 Mar | Millwall v Brighton and Hove Albion | W | 2-2 (4-5) | FA Cup |
| 30 Mar | Brighton and Hove v Southampton | L | 0-1 | Premier League |
| 03 Apr | Chelsea v Brighton and Hove Albion | L | 3-0 | Premier League |
| 06 Apr | Manchester City v Brighton and Hove | L | 1-0 | FA Cup |
| 13 Apr | Brighton and Hove v Bournemouth | L | 0-5 | Premier League |
| 16 Apr | Brighton and Hove v Cardiff City | L | 0-2 | Premier League |
| 20 Apr | Wolverhampton v Brighton and Hove | D | 0-0 | Premier League |
| 23 Apr | Tottenham H v Brighton and Hove | L | 1-0 | Premier League |
| 27 Apr | Brighton and Hove v Newcastle Utd | D | 1-1 | Premier League |
It left them at the start of May near the foot of the table, but the failure of Cardiff came to their rescue…
| Pos | Club | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
| 16 | Southampton | 36 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 44 | 61 | -17 | 38 |
| 17 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 36 | 9 | 8 | 19 | 33 | 55 | -22 | 35 |
| 18 | Cardiff City | 36 | 9 | 4 | 23 | 30 | 66 | -36 | 31 |
| 19 | Fulham | 36 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 34 | 76 | -42 | 26 |
| 20 | Huddersfield Town | 36 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 20 | 74 | -54 | 14 |
Their cares and worries over they could play free-flowing football and take us by surprise, or they could instead just be relieved and have had a drink or two too many last night.
By and large the away form of these clubs near the foot of the table reflects their form overall…
Away games only
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
| 15 | AFC Bournemouth | 18 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 23 | 40 | -17 | 16 |
| 16 | Southampton | 19 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 18 | 35 | -17 | 16 |
| 17 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 31 | -16 | 12 |
| 18 | Cardiff City | 18 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 31 | -20 | 11 |
| 19 | Huddersfield Town | 18 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 44 | -33 | 6 |
| 20 | Fulham | 19 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 45 | -33 | 5 |
Arsenal’s home form, although knocked by the defeat to Crystal Palace (not wholly unexpected since Palace have a much better away record than their home record every year for the past five years), still shows the club in a strong position.
Home games only
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 18 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 56 | 12 | 44 | 51 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 18 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 53 | 10 | 43 | 50 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 18 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 15 | 26 | 44 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 18 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 36 | 12 | 24 | 39 |
| 5 | Tottenham Hotspur | 18 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 14 | 18 | 37 |
| 6 | Manchester United | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 33 | 23 | 10 | 36 |
Just the goal tallies alone show us the difference between Arsenal at home (+26) and Brighton away (-16). Put another way, they score less than one goal a game and we concede less than one goal a game. 3-0 would seem the most likely score.
Of course we need Chelsea to drop points for us to get into the top four, and Chelsea do have issues in terms of a transfer ban, plus an owner who has not been to a match for a long time, and seems to have pulled the plug on their new stadium development since finding that he couldn’t have a work visa in the UK. So there is a hope (I know, it’s a bit of a long shot) that there might be a like of focus among some players for their game.
Chelsea play before us, at home to Watford, and as we can see from the table above Chelsea’s home form, although not as good as ours is still good enough to signal a home win. But Watford away offer little to suggest they might turn matters the other way. Chelsea’s last game is away to Leicester which offers perhaps a greater chance to stumble.
Chelsea away are not as bad as we are, but they are not perfect.
Away games only
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 18 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 10 | 24 | 41 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 31 | 10 | 21 | 41 |
| 3 | Tottenham Hotspur | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 22 | 11 | 33 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 29 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 29 |
The injury news is that Koscielny should be ok – it was just fatigue that caused his substitution.
Long-term injury absentees Rob Holding, Hector Bellerín, Aaron Ramsey, Denis Suarez and Danny Welbeck all of course remain out. But having the first of those two in place for the start of next season will be a major boost. Brighton will be without Jose Izquierdo; Davy Propper has a hamstring injury, but Beram Kayal is ok.
Among other odd stats, no team from the south coast has won a Premier League at Arsenal’s ground. And we have of course lost three in a row in the league. The last time it was four was 1995. And Arsenal substitutes have scored 11 league goals this season, the joint most in the top flight along with Liverpool.
The team…
The Guardian have
Leno
Jenkinson Mustafi Sokratis Kolasinac
Guendouzi Xhaka
Mkhitaryan Ozil Iwobi
Lacazette
The Standard has chickened out of this one and have only published a squad list, which really is cheating since their bold as brass headline reads “Arsenal vs Brighton: Premier League 2019 prediction, lineups…”
Sky Sprouts also fails to give us a line up. So we’ll stick with that one.
I am more than confident Arsenal will at the Ems today’s afternoon in the PL beat Brighton & HA. But my having been this confident depends on if the Gunners will not be overconfident in the game to beat the Seagulls when they take them on in the match. This is because going in into this match, Arsenal are still having the fight to finish in PL top-four this season on the hands to fight which could go to the wire between Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham on or before the final day of the season that ends next week. Due the pressure of to finish in the top-four this season that is confronting the Gunners when they go in into the match against the Seagulls, Arsenal will be playing the match under pressure to beat the Seagulls.
Whereas, Brighton who have just gotten a safety ticket to continue to play in the PL next season after their avoiding the drop to the Championship was confirmed yesterday could play against Arsenal under the relax of their minds relaxing in the game to play with freedom in the match and as a result may not commit much mistakes in the game for the Gunners to exploit them and turn them to goals for Arsenal in the match.
But notwithstanding, Arsenal should relax in their minds and play with total confidence in the game creating many goals scoring chances in the game and bury them into the back of the net appropriately to avoid wastefulness in front of Brighton goal.
In the tradition of the Premier League competitiveness, Arsenal should be fully prepared to deal to overcome Brighton who could try to be the spoilers to Arsenal in the game by throwing spaner in the works of Arsenal to deny them collecting the maximum points that they badly need to collect in the match.
Looking at the calibers of the 2 match referees appointed by the PGMO who are refereeing in the PL match ongoing at the Bridge between Chelsea and Watford in Paul Tierney, and Lee Mason for the ongoing match between Huddersfield and Man Utd at the John Smith’s Stadium. I begin to wonder, why has Mike Riley at the PGMO decided to appoint a well known anti-Arsenal match referee in the PL in the referee of Anthony Taylor to referee in the PL match between Arsenal and Brighton & HA at the Ems later this afternoon? I hope this is not a plan bt the PGMO leadership in Mike Riley to pull a fast one on Arsenal in the match.
Before the line up was annouced the Daily Mirror website ran a line up which they claimed was leaked from the club. It included Lichsteiner, both Lacaz and Auba playing up front, and no Koscielny.
Leno, Lichtsteiner, Sokratis, Mustafi, Monreal, Torreira, Xhaka, Mkhitaryan, Ozil, Aubameyang, Lacazette
10 minutes before kick off and with a broadcast on Radio 5 coming from Arsenal, and all they have talked about is Manchester United.
Could match fixing Type III had taken place in the PL by the PGMO this afternoon at the Bridge in the match between Chelsea and Watford that saw Chelsea won the match convincingly by 3-0 to go 3rd in the table? Which consequently negate any positive effect a win for Arsenal in their match at home against Brighton this afternoon could have in the table after the match has been played and Arsenal won it. I can see Anthony Taylor, the match referee and his 2 match assistants who are referring in the Arsenal vs Brighton match not bothering themselves to do any anti-Arsenal match referring in the PL match against Arsenal in this particular match. Because there won’t be any need for them to to do it as both Chelsea and Man Utd have had results today in their matches with Chelsea winning and Man U playing to a 1-1 draw away to Huddersfield. But the Gunners should prepare to have one of the 4 PGMO anti-Arsenal match referees in the PL in the referees of: Andre Marriner, Jonathan Moss, Michael Oliver and Mike Dean appointed by the PGMO to referee in their last match of this season in the PL away to Burnley next week.