Everton v Arsenal: Injuries, points needed for 4th, and Arsenal the first to 100?

 

Arsenal and Everton compared

By Bulldog Drummond

• Everton v Arsenal: how this referee treats the home and away team
• Everton v Arsenal and the oddity of referee behaviour
• Everton v Arsenal this saturday lunchtime: just what are Everton playing at?
• Everton v Arsenal – extraordinary figures seen in the last six games table

As you may remember, last season Tottenham came fourth in the league with 71 points and a goal difference of +29.   In 2021 Chelsea came fourth with 67 points and +22.  In 2020 it was also again with 66 points and +20.  In 2019 it was Tottenham with 71 points and +28.

There’s a remarkable consistency here –  so that we can say that by and large, of late something between 66 and 71 points is enough to get into the Champions League.  If goal difference natters then +29 will do it, although +20 might be enough.

With Arsenal sitting on 50 points and a goal difference already of +29, it seems more than likely that in the remaining 19 games the club will pick up the 21 points necessary to get that fourth place.  I know, of course, that the club is aiming for top spot, but given where we were last season, it is worthy of reflection halfway through this season, that seven wins out of the remaining 19 games should get the club into the Champions League – something that every single national newspaper that made a prediction pre-season, said would definitely not happen.

But what about Everton?  They have 15 points and have 18 games to play.   Last season Burnley went down with 35 points, so they might well think that seven wins should take them clear.  In short they need to win almost half of all their remaining games.  And certainly, if they started that drive with a win over Arsenal that would be one of the shocks of the season.

Injuries can of course play an enormous part in how well a team does, and Arsenal of late have had quite a flurry of injuries.  Gabriel Jesus is still four or five weeks away, Smith Rowe is in the process of getting match fit and doesn’t seem ready to start.   With Thomas Partey everyone is waiting to see – but even if he is ruled out the injury is not deemed to be significant, so it won’t be for more than one match.

Reiss Nelson is reported as being on the road to recovery, but not ready yet, and Mohammed Elneny is ruled out for some time to come.  The BBC is suggesting Jorginho could make an appearance.

Everton have two players certainly ruled out: Townsend and Garner.  Patterson, Keene and Godfrey all have knee injuries.  Patterson appears to be completely out, but the other two might make a return.

And just to give a comparison of how things can change in a year, here are Arsenal’s positions and Everton’s positions, one year ago compared to now.

 

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
16	Everton 2021/22	20	5	4	11	24	35	-11	19
19	Everton 2022/23	20	3	6	11	15	28	-13	15
4	Arsenal 2021/22	19	11	2	6	32	23	9	35
1	Arsenal 2022/23	19	16	2	1	45	16	29	50

 

As we can see, Everton have gone backwards slightly.  The defence is better but the attack is far worse than a year ago.  Arsenal however have gone on a massive march forward with 13 more goals scored and seven fewer conceded than at this stage a year ago.

Elsewhere the BBC has come up with a rather jolly statistic. “Arsenal have beaten Everton in 99 league matches – no team has ever recorded 100 wins against a single opponent in English league history.”   Now there’s a thing.

And it adds to the pressure because if Everton go down as seems likely, Arsenal won’t get another chance to beat them for a while, so will stay on that rather annoying stat of 99 wins.  In fact, in all competitive matches, the total tally is Arsenal 109 wins, Everton 64 wins and 46 draws.  But that total includes the Charity Shield, the FA Cup, the League Cup, and the Premier League Aisa Trophy (Arsenal won 3-1).

And yet despite those figures and Everton’s recent demise, in the last 10 games between the two clubs Arsenal have won five, lost four and there was one goalless draw.

But let’s end up this episode on a more cheery note, unless by some strange chance you are an Everton supporter who has meandered onto Untold Arsenal just to see how bad things can get

First, Everton have drawn two and lost eight of their last ten games in all competitions.  That is their worst run since 1994.

Second they have just lost four home league games in a row.  That is their worst run since 1958

Finally they have won three out of the 44 league games they have played against clubs that at that moment were top of the Premier League.   They drew nine and lost the other 32.   “We are top of the league say we are top of the league” is, by and large, a chant not often heard from the mouths of Everton supporters.  At least not without a sense of irony.

Next: the teams.