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Everton v Arsenal: the teams, the psychology, and Wenger copying Chapman

by Tony Attwood

Mr  Wenger has been in upbeat mood of late, saying, for example, “When you look at the teams around us, you can see that the margin of difference between the teams has shrunk a lot. So the way you respond in every single game is absolutely vital.

“What is for sure is at the moment every game is like a cup final for everybody. We just came out of a game where we were 1-0 down and for the sixth time in the season, we come back after having been down.

“So let’s continue to focus on that, on our resilience and on our motivation and after let’s see how far we can go.”

This of course is not a bad place to put that sort of philosophy into practice, what with us having 29 wins over Everton in the Premier League and very few losses of late.  Here’s the rundown – our defeat is in bold

29 Dec 2007 Everton v Arsenal W 1-4 Premier League
04 May 2008 Arsenal v Everton W 1-0 Premier League
18 Oct 2008 Arsenal v Everton W 3-1 Premier League
28 Jan 2009 Everton v Arsenal D 1-1 Premier League
15 Aug 2009 Everton v Arsenal W 1-6 Premier League
09 Jan 2010 Arsenal v Everton D 2-2 Premier League
14 Nov 2010 Everton v Arsenal W 1-2 Premier League
01 Feb 2011 Arsenal v Everton W 2-1 Premier League
10 Dec 2011 Arsenal v Everton W 1-0 Premier League
21 Mar 2012 Everton v Arsenal W 0-1 Premier League
28 Nov 2012 Everton v Arsenal D 1-1 Premier League
16 Apr 2013 Arsenal v Everton D 0-0 Premier League
08 Dec 2013 Arsenal v Everton D 1-1 Premier League
08 Mar 2014 Arsenal v Everton W 4-1 FA Cup
06 Apr 2014 Everton v Arsenal L 3-0 Premier League
23 Aug 2014 Everton v Arsenal D 2-2 Premier League
01 Mar 2015 Arsenal v Everton W 2-0 Premier League
24 Oct 2015 Arsenal v Everton W 2-1 Premier League
19 Mar 2016 Everton v Arsenal W 0-2 Premier League

In fact we have more wins over Everton than any other Premier League side, and this is certainly one of our better runs against another PL team.  It also includes the gloriously delicious 1-6 away win in 2009 when Moyes was in charge (the guy who said that the jury was still out on Ozil).

The team that day was

Almunia

Sagna Gallas Vermaelen Clichy

Fabregas Song Denilson Arshavin

Van Persie, Bendtner

Ramsey, Eduardo and Eboue came on as subs.

Given the improvement in our team since them days we ought to have a fighting chance of doing something more.   But… despite all the reminders about how bad their recent run has been, Everton have only lost one in the last 10 games at home – a run which goes back to April.

But then again we are the only side in the PL unbeaten away from home, and it is worth remembering that our great runs under Mr Wenger began with the perfection of our away form.

In 2001/2 for example, in our dry run for the Invincibles season two years later, we were unbeaten away from home, smashing records along the way.  It seems we are working on a similar approach this time – which is incidentally exactly the same way that Herbert Chapman did it.  Every time he won the league (with Arsenal and Huddersfield) he did so by having an away form that was as good if not better than the home form.

We are also still chasing the 16 game unbeaten run between December 2010 and April 2011 – this would be game 15 if we do achieve that.  That run started with a home win over Chelsea and ended with a 3-3 draw away to the Tiny Totts.

But now here is a funny one: Arsenal haven’t lost on a Tuesday in the Premier League since February 2006, winning 10 and drawing seven.  (I found that in one of the papers – my records don’t get that bizarre.)

Want another?  Well, even if not, here it is…

Olivier Giroud has scored five goals in his last six games against Everton.

And another (I’m getting the hang of this)…

Alexis Sanchez has been involved in 26 goals in his last 26 league appearances for Arsenal – scoring 18 and providing eight assists.

Anyway enough of the silly stats, time for the team news…

Presumably with Mustafi missing Gabriel will play in the centre.  Isn’t it interesting how quickly the media has moved from “Shkodran who?” and comments about Arsenal still buying unknowns instead of proven players, into this being an utter disaster for Arsenal to lose such an influential defender.

But Mustafi and Ramsey are out with hamstring problems.  However Bellerin came through Saturday’s test against the club with the most obnoxious fans in the western spiral arm of the Galaxy, so it is simply a move for Gabriel into his more natural position of centre back.

Incidentally the reports on Santi Cazorla are that his surgery went perfectly.  Here’s the injury table in date return order amended from Physioroom (which always seems to publish the list in no particular order I can discern).  It is good to see that Akpom has a return date…

Player Injury Estimated return date
A Ramsey Hamstring December 18, 2016
D Welbeck Cartilage Knee January 1, 2017
S Mustafi Hamstring January 3, 2017
P Mertesacker Knee January 7, 2017
M Debuchy Hamstring January 14, 2017
C Akpom Back January 14, 2017
S Cazorla Plantaris* February 25, 2017

*The plantaris is one of the superficial muscles of the superficial posterior compartment of the leg, and yes I had to ask Dr Billy “the Dog” McGraw, and no, I didn’t understand a single word of his explanation.

So, unless Mr Wenger springs any surprises on us the opening XI will be

Cech,

Bellerin, Gabriel, Koscielny, Monreal

Coquelin, Xhaka,

Theo, Ozil, The Ox

Alexis

The most likely change from the above if there is to be one is to replace Monreal with Gibbs if Mr Wenger thinks Monreal is getting a bit weary.

On the beach playing about will be Ospina, Gibbs, Elneny, Giroud, Iwobi, Holding, Perez.

Meanwhile the line up of our last ten results looks rather jolly:

W W W D W D D W W W

For Everton the list looks a little different:

L D D L W L D L D L

As for the top scorers lists that looks like this (table from soccerstats.com).  This source is particularly worth noting as it includes the percentage of team goals scored by the player, the number of penalties and the number of times the player has scored the first goal (as opposed to being a player who tucks away a goal or two when the match is long since won).

In my view any team that has an entry in the percentage column that is over 40% is in danger – for an injury or loss of form for such a player could spell danger to the club.  Over 50% and for me the club is on the edge of the cliff.  I’ve highlighted the three clubs in this sort of position.

On the other hand players with four or more “first” goals are of great value.  Interestingly Everton have in Lukaku a player in both categories.  If he were to get injured where would the club be then?

 Player Team Goals % team pen. 1st
1 Alexis Sanchez Arsenal 11 31% 0 4
1 Diego Costa Chelsea Soviets 11 33% 0 3
3 Sergio Aguero Manchester Airport 10 31% 3 5
4 Romelu Lukaku Everton 9 47% 0 5
5 Jermain Defoe Sunderland 8 57% 3 3
5 Christian Benteke Crystal Palace 8 30% 2 2
5 Eden Hazard Chelsea Soviets 8 24% 1 4
5 Zlatan Ibrahimovic Manchester Mo 8 40% 1 2
9 Harry Kane Tiny Totts 7 29% 3 2
9 Theo Walcott Arsenal 7 19% 0 2

As for the Psychological Factor:

Coming back from a goal down always gives the team a boost, especially when it means knocking back the worst supporters known to football.  So that’s another bonus to us; we simply will not be beaten.

And at the same time we saw Liverpool! lose their exclamation mark, the Tiny Totts get even tinier, and Manchester Airport come off the runway.  Another positive.

The players also saw one of the most appalling displays in the history of the Premier League by a referee and yet we still won and that will have given them yet another push.

And the Arsenal players will know that we have only lost one of the last 18 against Everton.

As for Everton in the psychological analysis, they have their positive home record to cling on to, but if they were to take the lead they would most certainly drop back, while Arsenal would just say “ok, we know how to handle this one,” and get ready to do what they have done six times before.

I’d say that for this game the psychological factors are totally with Arsenal.


Arsenal v Everton and other recent tales 

Wenger ponders whether Yaya Sanogo will ever really be good enough for Arsenal. 

 

Everton v Arsenal: a case study of changing managers

Everton v Arsenal Tuesday 13 December 2016. The Match Officials

Wenger May Not Be Special But He’s Definitely Something More …

The live report of the CL draw

What are the actual benefits of topping the Champions League group this season?

Over half the important decisions made by Premier League referees are wrong.

The most grotesque appalling display by a referee; the most disgraceful awful fans.

 

54 comments to Everton v Arsenal: the teams, the psychology, and Wenger copying Chapman

  • bushido

    good luck to all the Gunners on duty today’s. let’s keep the unbeaten streak in the PL going for 1 more match. com’on Arsenal

  • WalterBroeckx

    bushido, I hope for many many more to be honest…

  • MickHazel

    Arsenal
    33. Petr Cech
    24. Hector Bellerin
    5. Gabriel Paulista
    6. Laurent Koscielny
    18. Nacho Monreal
    34. Francis Coquelin
    29. Granit Xhaka
    14. Theo Walcott
    11. Mesut Ozil
    15. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
    7. Alexis Sanchez
    Subs
    3. Kieran Gibbs
    9. Lucas Perez
    12. Olivier Giroud
    13. David Ospina
    16. Rob Holding
    17. Alex Iwobi
    35. Mohamed Elneny

  • Am I right in thinking that the actual team is the same as the team predicted by Untold?

  • bushido

    i hope so to Walter’s n Tony, u were spot on with the team prediction’ mate

  • Leon

    Everton kicking our players and their own

  • Leon

    Sanchez. Who else?

  • bushido

    nearly a penalty for Arsenal but it just outside the box. Jagielka brought le’Coq down

  • bushido

    deflection freekick

  • bushido

    Everton keeper make a mess of it

  • Vince

    How on earth did Jagielka avoid a red card there?

  • Leon

    Vince
    He needs to keep his mouth shut now that he’s got a yello

  • Menace

    clearly Everton kicking the Arsenal players but Clattercheat not calling the foul. Commentator is also a dildo with stink.

  • Al

    Clattenburg starting to give Everton the advantage now…

  • Menace

    Follow up not given a red card!! what the fuck is deliberate vicious foul play?

  • Al

    Could see it coming, they’re being allowed to harass us…

  • bushido

    1-1, Coleman with the header

  • Menace

    Kos fouled before the header. Clattenburg would never see that!!

  • bushido

    wish the bt sport commentators will stfu already. such a pain in the arse

  • Leon

    So we’ll win 3-1 again

  • Al

    Clattenburg is turning out to be a shit ref for us. Its been a few games now with him with similar sort of outcome. we were well on top till about 25 minutes or so when he started ignoring barges and kicks from Everton. he seems to be trying to further his career at our expense.

  • bushido

    Everton knew their only chance to beat Arsenal is to kick the hell out of Arsenal players n with the referee is such a dick they seem to manage to do that alrite

  • Al

    Yeh saw that, Menace. Barkley just barged him off the ball, or Kos would have put a challenge in and not allow colman a free header….

  • Leon

    Bit of ag as they left the field at HT. what was that all about

  • para

    Come on Arsenal, stay focused and do not get distracted or agitated by their doings, play our game.

  • MickHazel

    As usual Clattenburg being a lot more lenient on the Everton players who gradually cottoned on to the fact that they could get away with a lot more than our guys could. Phantam fouls given for them, blatant ones against us ignored.

  • bushido

    hope AW will come down the players in the dressing room n make another game changing plan. hope Ollie G will come on n Alexis will play on the left. The Ox seem to be ineffective in the 1st half. com’on Arsenal

  • bushido

    #calm

  • Pat

    Clattenburg blew the half time whistle rather than give us a free kick.

  • Al

    I’m looking at koeman also, his Southampton side despite playing good football would resort to thuggery (wanyama et al) when things weren’t going so well for them. I don’t think I’ve seen this kind of physical approach from Everton this season until today… he clearly told them to rough us up. I hope their poor run continues and he gets sacked…

  • Menace

    The half time shit was due to an Everton attack on Ozil after he was fouled. The whole bunch of the cunts got involved.

  • Leon

    Phantom handball against Ox

  • Menace

    McCarthy was the shit at half time & has just got away with a high foot. PGMO blind fucking mice!!

  • Leon

    Ox giving some back

  • para

    Come on lads, were making these problems ourselves. Regain control and the mis-passes will stop.

  • para

    Are we having a breather? we’re letting them have too much of the ball, that could end bad.

  • para

    Thats exactly what i mean

  • Pat

    Blast and damn! They’ve scored. Only two minutes. Can we equalise again?

  • Leon

    That shot my 3-1 up the arse

  • Vince

    So obvious Everton goal will come after a free kick given to Everton for a perfect Kos tackle (after Lukaku got away with a kick in Kos face)

  • Menace

    How can football survive with such cheating officials? It is just not clean.

  • Leon

    Bit late for that red

  • Menace

    should have had a pen!!!! what a fucking cheating bastard PGMO !!

  • Leon

    Frantic stuff at the end

  • para

    We “lost” that one all on our own. We went to sleep and let Everton play after scoring our goal.

  • Great game killer ending we def deserved a point .

  • para

    Disappointed really, it could have been well avoided, so, why?

  • Gooneress No1

    How do you avoid a cheating ref Para?

  • WalterBroeckx

    match report is on line

  • Josif

    We didn’t find a killer pass in the final third all game. Add a few defensive lapses, a referee who has become a real face of the organization he represents and then you know why we lost the game.

    Now, let’s bounce with a win over Manchester City. This was a set-back in our title challenge but there are still 22 matches to be played.

    COYG!

  • bjtgooner

    para – a bit hard to sleep when being kicked!

    Unfortunately a team of thugs, managed by a thug, permitted to cheat by the PGMO, supervised by the malign presence of Dean, was too much for us tonight.

    But lets give credit to our guys for the effort they put in – well done guys.

    Menace is right about the first thug goal – Kos was fouled as the ball came over & could not clear – it looked like a premeditated move. The dorks in the BT studio thought it was funny!!!

    The second thug goal came from a series of cormers which started after a Clattendork invented foul! Shame on the PGMO.

  • Menace

    Josif – the pass that Ozil balooned over the top was top quality.