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Southampton v Arsenal: the early injury news, plus the home v away record

By Bulldog Drummond

Arsene Wenger has revealed that Laurent Koscielny and Granit Xhaka could miss the game with Southampton on Wednesday night.  But even so, and even with the newspapers now in desperation to hold onto their fantasies by printing claims that Arsenal have had the most men injured in the last 10 years (they haven’t) we are still way down the injury league.

Now these figures from Physioroom have to come with a health warning (geddit? “health warning”, oh never mind) in that they are very erratic as to who they include, and next season we are going to try and upgrade the figures (at least for Arsenal) to see if we can get closer to reality.

But these things are difficult without a lot of resources, so no absolute promises – and for now we are still using Physioroom.   Here’s the club by club total revealing that Arsenal have 37.5% of the total number of injuries of the most injury prone club this week: the slaughterers of Tottenham: the might West Ham.

# Team Injury Total Last man down What he got
1 West Ham United 8 C Kouyate Wrist Injury
2 Manchester United 7 M Rashford Knee Injury
3 Watford 7 M Britos Calf Injury
4 Bournemouth 7 J Stanislas Cramp
5 Crystal Palace 6 Y Cabaye Knock
6 Hull City 6 L Markovic Knock
7 Sunderland 6 D Gibson Groin Injury
8 Everton 6 A Lennon Medical Condition
9 Southampton 4 V van Dijk Foot
10 Liverpool 4 S Mane Cartilage Knee Injury
11 Manchester City 4 S Aguero Groin Strain
12 Swansea City 4 J Montero Hamstring Injury
13 Arsenal 3 L Koscielny Knock
14 Tottenham Hotspur 3 H Winks Ankle Injury
15 Leicester City 3 W Morgan Hamstring Injury
16 Middlesbrough 3 G Ramirez Pelvis

And so moving on here are the details of our three wounded…

Player What’s wrong Return date?  Current condition
G Xhaka Calf Injury May 10, 2017 Late Fitness Test
L Koscielny Knock May 10, 2017 Late Fitness Test
S Cazorla Plantaris Injury July 1, 2017 See him next season

As for Southampton they currently have four players out, and unlike us they have no one who is likely to make it back for the match on Wednesday night.

Player What’s wrong Return date? Current condition
V van Dijk Foot No Return Date Major Doubt
C Austin Shoulder Injury May 13, 2017 Major Doubt
A McCarthy Hamstring Injury No Return Date Major Doubt
M Targett Hamstring Injury May 13, 2017 Major Doubt

Which leads us on to that fascinating subject of the home vs away figures.

I’m interested to see that before we started touching on these not too many sites or newspapers had thought of the idea, although I am sure they will next season.

For the notion is simple: in this case we compare Southampton’s home form with Arsenal’s away form – which when you come to think of it is fairly logical.   Here’s what we get…

Arsenal away have picked up seven wins to Southampton’s home record of six wins in the league.   In terms of the goal difference, away from home Arsenal are +5, while at home Southampton are -1, with only 17 goals scored in 16 games: an average of 1.06 goals per game at home.   Arsenal away have scored 32 goals in 17 games which gives a record of 1.88 goals per game.   On that basis we should win 2-1.

Leaving aside the first week of the season, Southampton’s high point this campaign has been 9th, while after their defeat at the Emirates they sank to 18th.  Their last four games have been fairly miserable affairs.

In terms of Southampton overall the last four games, three of which have been against members of the Big 6 as they are now called, resulting in two defeats and two goalless draws…

Game Date Opposition Venue Result Pos
33 15.04.2017 Manchester City home L0-3 9
34 25.04.2017 Chelsea away L2-4 9
35 29.04.2017 Hull City home D0-0 9
36 07.05.2017 Liverpool away D0-0 10

Looking at their home record over the last six we see….

Game Date Opposition Venue Result Pos
22 22.01.2017 Leicester City home W3-0 11
24 04.02.2017 West Ham United home L1-3 13
30 01.04.2017 Bournemouth home D0-0 10
31 05.04.2017 Crystal Palace home W3-1 9
33 15.04.2017 Manchester City home L0-3 9
35 29.04.2017 Hull City home D0-0 9

… 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats – a very middle of the table set of results.

Arsenal’s last six away however don’t make the best of reading.  If I could make it the last eight it would look more pleasant (including the 4-0 win over Swansea and the 3-3 draw with Bournemouth), but six is the normal number to analyse, so six it is.

Game Date Opposition Venue Result Pos
24 04.02.2017 Chelsea away L1-3 3
27 04.03.2017 Liverpool away L1-3 5
29 18.03.2017 West Bromwich Albion away L1-3 5
32 10.04.2017 Crystal Palace away L0-3 6
33 17.04.2017 Middlesbrough away W2-1 6
34 30.04.2017 Tottenham Hotspur away L0-2 7

One win and five defeats.   But then as I have said before, all runs come to an end sometimes.    And let’s try to be positive.  In three of the last four Southampton have not scored at home.

And here’s a thing: we have played at their stadium once before this season: in the Cup

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/38785470    Have a look – it’s rather nice

Tomorrow morning: the referee preview.

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7 comments to Southampton v Arsenal: the early injury news, plus the home v away record

  • Josif

    Fifa confirmed Pogba’s transfer is under investigation. Apparently, both Juventus and Man Utd made a huge payment to Pogba’s agent Raiola.

  • Omgarsenal

    Oh my God….the sweet FA had better spend their corrupt cash to protect their sacred ManU from ANY investigation!!!

  • Gord

    FIFA have killed their ethics committee. The 2 outside people brought in, have been asked to leave. FIFA is shutting down the ethics investigation, just like it is ignoring Israel.

    —-

    Tony said that 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses is middle of the road above. Which is 4 points from 3 games, or 51 points for the season.

    As far as this season goes, I think Arsenal and the rest of the Top-6 will likely all be at 70 points or higher. I think that only Everton will be in the 60’s. So, I don’t think that the bottom 14 will even average 51 points this year. But it is probably close over the years for the non-Top group of teams in the EPL.

    —-

    If a team bought an entire team (set of players), the best that they could afford, and then the next season did nothing; how good do you think that team would be the second season? If then in the third season, they again made no changes, how would they finish?

    If you guess that they would finish at 40 points in that second season (and be relegated in the third) and be generous and say they finished top of the rest (so maybe 60 points) in that first season; that is saying that if one models their performance as a simple first order system, the time constant for decaying performance is about 2.466 years.

    If you are going to take their performance from a year ago as part of an argument, you multiply their (positive) results (points, goals for, goals against, wins) and multiply by 2/3. If we find ourselves at the end of the season, and we want to talk about the beginning of the season, we would multiply that early game by about 0.763 (to take account of the 8 months time).

    I suppose if you had a player at the peak of their ability, and they scored 30 goals in that peak year. We would expect them to score 20 goals in the year after.

    How much do you see things “decay”?

  • Brickfields Gunners

    ‘ It’s not how many times you get knocked down that count, it’s how many times you get back up.’

    How true in the case of Newcastle United . Last season they were the laughing stock of the North East . Next season they’ll probably be the only team from that region in the EPL .

  • Polo

    Off topic: Ozil is just a great person and Arsenal a great club, well done to both. I wish the kid all the best and hope he fully recover from his illness.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/charity-hails-fantastic-mesut-ozil-10390423

  • Though I used to hate FIFA with Bladder in charge the brother to Blatter I think I’m falling in love again. Investigate Progba and get back on how Manure won those trophies under sir furgus. Let the investigation start with just one match officiated by the current FA chairman of referee. The 49 run for the Gunners, I know you read this.As Mr FIFA President you said last month why get rid of a Guy like the Prof what wrong has he done. Send you investigators it won’t be easy but the envindence is overwhelming. Wish you all the best.

  • Brickfields Gunners

    SMART DIAGNOSTICS –

    One day, in line at the cafeteria, Bob says to Stanley, “My elbow hurts like crazy. I guess I’d better see a doctor.”

    “Listen, Bob, you don’t have to spend that kind of money,” Stan replies. “There’s a diagnostic computer down at Walmart. Just give it a urine sample and the computer will tell you what’s wrong and what to do about it. It takes ten seconds and costs ten dollars… a lot cheaper than a doctor.”

    So, Bob fills a small jar with his urine and takes it to Walmart. He deposits ten dollars, and the computer lights up and asks for the urine sample. He pours the sample into the slot and waits.

    Ten seconds later, the computer ejects a printout: “You have tennis elbow. Soak your arm in warm water and avoid heavy activity. It will improve in two weeks. Here is a doctor’s certificate for your employer.”

    That evening, while thinking how amazing this new technology was, Bob began wondering if the computer could be fooled. He mixed some tap water, a urine sample from his dog, urine samples from his wife and daughter, and some water out of his favorite fishing hole, just for good measure.

    He then went back to Walmart, eager to test the computer. He deposits ten dollars, pours in his concoction, and waits.

    In ten seconds the computer prints the following:
    “1. Your tap water is too hard. Get a water softener.
    2. Your dog has ringworm. Bathe him with anti-fungal shampoo.
    3. Your daughter has a cocaine habit. Get her into rehab. 4. Your wife is pregnant – twins. They aren’t yours. Get a lawyer.
    5. If you don’t stop fishing, your elbow will never get better.

    And, as always… Thank you for shopping at Walmart.”

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