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Arsenal v Liverpool! The fortune telling programme that predicts results quite well.

By Bulldog Drummond.

When I speak of “fortune telling” I mean of course my regular attempts to predict what will happen in each Arsenal game as it comes along.  And aside from just wanting to win, I think the system we’ve been looking at this season is doing quite well.

By this I mean something very simple, but rarely quoted elsewhere: the home and away results thus far of the two teams, viewed alongside recent results in general and against other teams from the top six, when we play each other.

To start with the recent results, for Arsenal these tell us something rather interesting:

Date Game Res Score Competition
07 Dec 2017 Arsenal v FC BATE Borisov W 6-0 UEFA Europa League
10 Dec 2017 Southampton v Arsenal D 1-1 Premier League
13 Dec 2017 West Ham United v Arsenal D 0-0 Premier League
16 Dec 2017 Arsenal v Newcastle United W 1-0 Premier League
19 Dec 2017 Arsenal v West Ham United W 1-0 League Cup

Across the last five games we have conceded one goal which suggests that although the attack seems to be under-achieving the defence has got itself sorted.

And indeed this is no bad thing for looking at Liverpool’s last five, Arsenal’s defence are going to have to be really solid…

Date Game Res Score Competition
02 Dec 2017 Brighton and Hove v Liverpool W 1-5 Premier League
06 Dec 2017 Liverpool v Spartak Moscow W 7-0 Champions League
10 Dec 2017 Liverpool v Everton D 1-1 Premier League
13 Dec 2017 Liverpool v West Brom D 0-0 Premier League
17 Dec 2017 AFC Bournemouth v Liverpool W 0-4 Premier League

The results of each team match up in terms of 3 wins and two draws, but Liverpool have scored 17 in these five games.  Arsenal have managed just nine.

So let’s look at the home and away leagues to see if they shed any more light on what will happen.  Here is the table showing home games only…

Pos Team Pld W D L F A GD Pts
1 Manchester City 9 8 1 0 32 7 25 25
2 Manchester United 9 8 0 1 22 3 19 24
3 Arsenal 9 8 0 1 22 7 15 24
4 Chelsea 9 6 1 2 14 7 7 19
5 Tottenham Hotspur 9 5 3 1 16 6 10 18
6 Everton 9 6 0 3 17 13 4 18
7 Liverpool 9 4 5 0 14 3 11 17

We’ve got the record that is identical to Man U, but with the Manchester City and Chelsea goal against total.

And next, the away league.  Liverpool have a decent away record, similar to Man U but with a propensity to let in more goals on occasion.

Pos Team Pld W D L F A GD Pts
1 Manchester City 9 9 0 0 24 5 19 27
2 Chelsea 9 6 1 2 18 7 11 19
3 Manchester United 9 5 2 2 17 9 8 17
4 Liverpool 9 5 2 2 24 17 7 17
5 Burnley 9 4 3 2 9 9 0 15
6 Watford 9 4 1 4 16 13 3 13
7 Tottenham Hotspur 9 4 1 4 15 12 3 13
8 Leicester City 9 3 4 2 16 14 2 13
9 Arsenal 9 2 3 4 9 13 -4 9

On the home/away analysis the odds are with us, although what is unusual is that Liverpool have scored more away goals than we have got home goals.  But they have let in ten more goals away than we have at home.  3-2 or 2-1 looks to be the right sort of score.

If we just consider the games against other clubs in the top part of the league, we’ve had these results so far

Date Match Result Score Competition
06 Aug 2017 Arsenal v Chelsea W 1-1 (4-1) Community Shield
27 Aug 2017 Liverpool v Arsenal L 4-0 Premier League
17 Sep 2017 Chelsea v Arsenal D 0-0 Premier League
05 Nov 2017 Manchester City v Arsenal L 3-1 Premier League
18 Nov 2017 Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur W 2-0 Premier League
02 Dec 2017 Arsenal v Manchester United L 1-3 Premier League

If we exclude the first game – the Community Shield match, we have won just the one, lost three and drawn one.  Our one win came at home against Tottenham.

Liverpool against the other teams near the top…

Date Match Result Score Competition
27 Aug 2017 Liverpool v Arsenal W 4-0 Premier League
09 Sep 2017 Manchester City v Liverpool L 5-0 Premier League
14 Oct 2017 Liverpool v Manchester United D 0-0 Premier League
22 Oct 2017 Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool L 4-1 Premier League
25 Nov 2017 Liverpool v Chelsea D 1-1 Premier League

Liverpool have one win, two draws, and two defeats, the latter both by sizeable margins and away from home.

Putting all this together we have two teams that are not so far cutting a swathe through their nearest rivals.  But what gives us the edge is that it is at the Emirates.  Arsenal have won just such a game at home (against Tottenham), as have Liverpool (against Arsenal).

I’m one of those people who is always nervous before a game, but the signs from the home / away analysis and the review of the top clubs playing each other seems to suggest we have an edge.

More anon…

Just published from the Arsenal History Society

Norris at the Arsenal: The first suggestion that Arsenal could be elected to the 1st division.

Recent Posts

8 comments to Arsenal v Liverpool! The fortune telling programme that predicts results quite well.

  • Josif

    It seems that we always play against Liverpool when they are in form.

    Of our aforementioned nine goals, six came within the same game. In the last four league games, we had 89 shots and scored just three goals. That has to improve.

    One thing we have to completely kick out of our game for the Friday night is our casual passing in our third of the pitch. Koscielny and Xhaka have to stay focused for whole 90 minutes and make their distribution as tidy as possible. A single mistake could be enough for Salah and Mane to do their thing.

  • Julianm

    I am worried about this game for the reasons below.
    1. I would say that only Coutinho and Salah would get into the Arsenal starting 11 in place of Sanchez and Ramsey.
    2. Klopp is managing the deficiencies in Liverpool’s squad better than we are managing ours at Arsenal.
    3. Sanchez is carrying fatigue, a sulk and is out of form.
    4. Bellerin, like him as I do, does not realise he is a defender.
    5. Monreal is not a defender.
    6. Xhaka is not being supported Adequately, thus is prone to giving the ball away. This is because when Ozil is on form, and boy he is, the whole team think they are Brazil circa 1970, instead of sticking to their tasks.
    I desperately want us to win and win well tomorrow, but we will show up and play as if we are playing Brentford, Liverpool will go 2-0 up by half time, then Arsène will make some adjustments and we may scrape a draw or narrow win if a ‘referee’ is appointed to this game.

  • Menace

    The shooting problem we have is the typical low & hard shot at goal. It is what all goalkeepers practice. The high top corner is the most difficult for goalkeepers & apparently for Arsenal forwards. Kicking technique is so important when playing against buses.

    The ability to bend a ball & make it dip is such a simple technique, yet everyone marvels at goals scored in that way. Every player should be taught kicking technique. It is almost a necessity in the high wage that players demand. They must improve some aspects of their game to warrant such obscene wages.

    The possession of the ball in our half is meant to draw the opponent forward of his defense not to gift him an opportunity to score. However there seems to be an obvious gift process that the opposition exploit and end up scoring.

  • Samuel Akinsola Adebosin

    Statistics aside, I am of the believe that Arsenal will beat Liverpool tomorrow night in the week 19 Premier League big game encounter between the duo clubs at the Emirates Stadium.

    Let me say here that Monreal is a dependable top quality left fullback for Arsenal. He has a powerful shooting on the ball when coming forward into the opponent area that can beat any goalie hands down more than most Gunners have. But he has not been exploiting this asset of his to maximum effect and benefit to Arsenal in the PL.

    I want to see Petr Cech improves on his ball kicking out which when he does, it goes to the opponent player who will collect it more often instead of a Gunner collecting or heading it to start an Arsenal attack. Cech ball kicking out should be to set up the Gunners to attack and to be giving the opponent team players attacking advantage against Arsenal. And secondly, in a spot kick situation, let Cech watch the ball as it’s being kicked by the penalty taker to known the direction the ball is going to and follow it to give him a fair chance of saving the penalty kick. But stop depending on guessing the direction the penalty taker will kick the to which often than not, his guessing has not been working.

    We all know the Gunners of Arsenal team I whom Le Boss is very likely to start in his starting XI and 7 Gunners he’ll have on his bench for this match, don’t us? And I think he will stick to the back four defense-line he has reintroduced in Arsenal recent games in all competitions. But now that Mustafi is back, will he still stick to the back four or go back to the back three? Well, I don’t realy can say.

    My Arsenal 4-3-3 playing formation style starters and 7 man Gunners on the bench for this our home Liverpool big game which the Gunners WILL WIN after 4 attempts that have seen them not successful against a Jorgen Klopp’s Liverpool team in the PL.

    Starts:
    Cech
    Bellerin….Koscielny….Mustafi….Monreal
    ……Wilshere…. Xhaka…..Maitland
    ……Oezil…….. .Lacazette…..Sanchez ….

    Bench:
    Ospina Mertesacker Chambers ElNeny Walcott Iwobi and Akpom the forgotten man.

    For his experience, I’ve included Akpom on my bench over Adelaide to replace the hamstring Giroud. And after seeing how Chambers played very well in the Carabao and became the best Arsenal player in the game on the night, and how ElNeny stopped West Hammers from playing as he destroyed their match cohesion. The duo obviously deserved stating this big game but from the bench due to their having started in the Carabao 2 days back.

  • Interesting Bergkamp is available, get him now! Overmars maybe available as well if he doesn’t want to continue under the new regime, go for him now Arsene!

    Also we were in for Rugani before and apparently are again with a fixed fee, Juve would accept!

    That is the kind of CB we need! I put him up there with Laporte a ball playing CB technician! That is a buy!

    That would irradiate the one spot we need to fill now and can fill now and Walcott to Everton again suits both parties! How much substance is in it I don’t know, but that is good for both clubs and the player and a premium sale!

    Wilshere piped up, no need you stay and you and Ozil announce in a few weeks! Happy new year Arsenal fans and should make for a merry Xmas!

    Ox is playing better because yes Liverpool suit his playing style but how much better he’s been is debateavlee especially with one assist in one half decent performance! His stats and contribution and bench time is pretty much the same if not overall worse and dn straight he’s a work in progress and suited to AM with cover but jeez!

    I could hand pick my my CB and GK as you know and the fun is in the left back and right back position but If AMN is a better right back then LB that’s covered with Cohen returning so that leave so DM and RW!

    Arsene you’ve almost finished the project, ditto! Go for it!

    COYG

  • And Sam Giroud and Aaron are certainly out but it’s not likely Mustarfi or Coquelin will feature so soon after injury!

    Poor Santi, I said! Hmmm…..

    Line up the three amigos, jack and Granit, if Francis could start I’d use him and then swap out who doesn’t get carded out of him and Granit for Iwobi with, a back four of Sead, Bellerin, Callum and Kos!

    Being prepared to swap a holding mid for a AM, and swap out Callum if he struggles for Rob!

    This one is not for Per, too much pace, maybe even Niles over Sead for the added pace to keep Liverpool honest!

    Theo you’re up as super sub, last chance!

    IWIT

  • I have a feeling weird things will happen this EPL weekend!

  • Adewale Aina

    The most important aspect of the game for Arsenal is commitment and absolute concentration. I have no doubt that the team will perform well, if these two factors are held constant.

    No more, no less!!! It’s up to the players to behave and adhere to team tactics and strategy. Ability to defend together is also very crucial. The team has the right quality, so let them do it.

    Wale Aina