By Bulldog Drummond.
When I speak of “fortune telling” I mean of course my regular attempts to predict what will happen in each Arsenal game as it comes along. And aside from just wanting to win, I think the system we’ve been looking at this season is doing quite well.
By this I mean something very simple, but rarely quoted elsewhere: the home and away results thus far of the two teams, viewed alongside recent results in general and against other teams from the top six, when we play each other.
To start with the recent results, for Arsenal these tell us something rather interesting:
|07 Dec 2017||Arsenal v FC BATE Borisov||W||6-0||UEFA Europa League|
|10 Dec 2017||Southampton v Arsenal||D||1-1||Premier League|
|13 Dec 2017||West Ham United v Arsenal||D||0-0||Premier League|
|16 Dec 2017||Arsenal v Newcastle United||W||1-0||Premier League|
|19 Dec 2017||Arsenal v West Ham United||W||1-0||League Cup|
Across the last five games we have conceded one goal which suggests that although the attack seems to be under-achieving the defence has got itself sorted.
And indeed this is no bad thing for looking at Liverpool’s last five, Arsenal’s defence are going to have to be really solid…
|02 Dec 2017||Brighton and Hove v Liverpool||W||1-5||Premier League|
|06 Dec 2017||Liverpool v Spartak Moscow||W||7-0||Champions League|
|10 Dec 2017||Liverpool v Everton||D||1-1||Premier League|
|13 Dec 2017||Liverpool v West Brom||D||0-0||Premier League|
|17 Dec 2017||AFC Bournemouth v Liverpool||W||0-4||Premier League|
The results of each team match up in terms of 3 wins and two draws, but Liverpool have scored 17 in these five games. Arsenal have managed just nine.
So let’s look at the home and away leagues to see if they shed any more light on what will happen. Here is the table showing home games only…
We’ve got the record that is identical to Man U, but with the Manchester City and Chelsea goal against total.
And next, the away league. Liverpool have a decent away record, similar to Man U but with a propensity to let in more goals on occasion.
On the home/away analysis the odds are with us, although what is unusual is that Liverpool have scored more away goals than we have got home goals. But they have let in ten more goals away than we have at home. 3-2 or 2-1 looks to be the right sort of score.
If we just consider the games against other clubs in the top part of the league, we’ve had these results so far
|06 Aug 2017||Arsenal v Chelsea||W||1-1 (4-1)||Community Shield|
|27 Aug 2017||Liverpool v Arsenal||L||4-0||Premier League|
|17 Sep 2017||Chelsea v Arsenal||D||0-0||Premier League|
|05 Nov 2017||Manchester City v Arsenal||L||3-1||Premier League|
|18 Nov 2017||Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur||W||2-0||Premier League|
|02 Dec 2017||Arsenal v Manchester United||L||1-3||Premier League|
If we exclude the first game – the Community Shield match, we have won just the one, lost three and drawn one. Our one win came at home against Tottenham.
Liverpool against the other teams near the top…
|27 Aug 2017||Liverpool v Arsenal||W||4-0||Premier League|
|09 Sep 2017||Manchester City v Liverpool||L||5-0||Premier League|
|14 Oct 2017||Liverpool v Manchester United||D||0-0||Premier League|
|22 Oct 2017||Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool||L||4-1||Premier League|
|25 Nov 2017||Liverpool v Chelsea||D||1-1||Premier League|
Liverpool have one win, two draws, and two defeats, the latter both by sizeable margins and away from home.
Putting all this together we have two teams that are not so far cutting a swathe through their nearest rivals. But what gives us the edge is that it is at the Emirates. Arsenal have won just such a game at home (against Tottenham), as have Liverpool (against Arsenal).
I’m one of those people who is always nervous before a game, but the signs from the home / away analysis and the review of the top clubs playing each other seems to suggest we have an edge.
Just published from the Arsenal History Society
- Greater and greater signs of widespread corruption at every level of Fifa and accepted by every country.
- Whatever happened to the idea of having a video referee system in the Premier League?
- What matters most, the crowd or the result? And not being selected match after match
- What Europe knows about Man C but the English press haven’t told you
- Arsenal v Manchester City Women’s Continental League Cup semi-final – match preview
- How Man City’s problems began to arise…. nine years ago
- The media pile into Manchester City, but where have they been all this time?
- Manchester City accused of over 100 breaches of Premier League financial rules