Newcastle v Arsenal. Arsenal are crumbling… or maybe they are not.

by Bulldog Drummond

It is interesting to note that the only time Arsenal were actually ever behind CSKA Moscow was in the first leg when CSKA equalised and thus were technically ahead on the away goals rule.

When Arsenal went 2-0 down in the second match, and thus were ahead 4-3, and so as the maths show, still in front and able to go through (away goals not double of course counting unless the sides are equal on aggregate at the end of the match) the commentator on TV said this:

Arsenal are crumbling in the Russian capital and once again are putting their fans through yet another tortuous experience.  It should have been safe to start thinking about the semi-finals with a three goal advantage from the first leg but with Arsenal it never is.  One more goal knocks them out.  

Of course the “one more goal” comment was semi-accurate, for to be correct it should have been “one more goal without Arsenal replying” would knock them out, but this was not said.  The score at that moment was 4-3, and Arsenal were going through.  That one more goal would indeed have made it 4-4.  But equally one away goal for Arsenal would have nullified the advantage of the CSKA away goal.

And of course that is exactly what happened.  One goal from Arsenal and CSKA needed two just to take it to extra time (each side then having one away goal).

But disaster scenarios are a fundamental requirement by editors for anyone commenting on Arsenal, and so the thought of Newcastle away will bring forth remembrances of Arsenal going four up and it then coming back to 4-4 seven years ago, is told with a vim and vigour that suggests it was only yesterday and that this is normal everyday Arsenal.

In fact normal everyday Arsenal at the moment is six wins, one draw and three defeats in the last ten, and unbeaten in the last seven…

Date	Game	Res	Score	Competition
25 Feb 2018	Arsenal v Manchester City	L	0-3	League Cup
01 Mar 2018	Arsenal v Manchester City	L	0-3	Premier League
04 Mar 2018	Brighton and Hove v Arsenal	L	2-1	Premier League
08 Mar 2018	AC Milan v Arsenal	W	0-2	Europa League
11 Mar 2018	Arsenal v Watford	W	3-0	Premier League
15 Mar 2018	Arsenal v AC Milan	W	3-1	Europa League
01 Apr 2018	Arsenal v Stoke City	W	3-0	Premier League
05 Apr 2018	Arsenal v CSKA Moscow	W	4-1	Europa League
08 Apr 2018	Arsenal v Southampton	W	3-2	Premier League
12 Apr 2018	CSKA Moscow v Arsenal	D	2-2	Europa League

Newcastle also have but three defeats in the last ten but have had three draws too, and four wins – three of those in the last three games.

Date	Game	Res	Score	Competition
20 Jan 2018	Man City v Newcastle Utd	L	3-1	Premier League
28 Jan 2018	Chelsea v Newcastle United	L	3-0	FA Cup
31 Jan 2018	Newcastle United v Burnley	D	1-1	Premier League
04 Feb 2018	Crystal Palace v Newcastle Utd	D	1-1	Premier League
11 Feb 2018	Newcastle Utd v Man Utd	W	1-0	Premier League
24 Feb 2018	Bournemouth v Newcastle Utd	D	2-2	Premier League
03 Mar 2018	Liverpool v Newcastle United	L	2-0	Premier League
10 Mar 2018	Newcastle Utd v Southampton	W	3-0	Premier League
31 Mar 2018	Newcastle Utd v Huddersfield	W	1-0	Premier League
07 Apr 2018	Leicester City v Newcastle Utd	W	1-2	Premier League

Arsenal’s problem however is away from home, and itt’s really been a long old time since we were this poor on the road.

This table shows away games only…

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	16	13	2	1	37	11	26	41
2	Tottenham Hotspur	17	10	3	4	33	18	15	33
3	Liverpool	17	9	4	4	37	25	12	31
4	Manchester United	16	9	3	4	28	18	10	30
5	Burnley	17	7	6	4	19	16	3	27
6	Chelsea	15	7	3	5	26	16	10	24
7	Leicester City	16	5	5	6	26	26	0	20
8	Newcastle United	16	4	4	8	17	26	-9	16
9	AFC Bournemouth	16	3	6	7	16	25	-9	15
10	Watford	16	4	2	10	17	29	-12	14
11	Crystal Palace	17	3	5	9	14	27	-13	14
12	Arsenal	15	3	4	8	16	24	-8	13

Newcastle at home are better, but perhaps fortunately for us, not that much better – only five teams in the league have won fewer games at home than they have.

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	16	14	1	1	53	13	40	43
2	Manchester United	16	13	2	1	35	7	28	41
3	Arsenal	17	13	2	2	45	19	26	41
4	Liverpool	16	10	6	0	38	10	28	36
5	Tottenham Hotspur	15	10	4	1	31	9	22	34
6	Chelsea	17	10	3	4	28	15	13	33
7	Everton	17	9	3	5	26	21	5	30
8	Brighton and Hove Albion	17	6	7	4	22	24	-2	25
9	Leicester City	16	6	5	5	22	19	3	23
10	AFC Bournemouth	17	6	5	6	25	28	-3	23
11	Watford	17	6	5	6	25	30	-5	23
12	Newcastle United	16	6	4	6	16	15	1	22

Interestingly Newcastle score on average one goal a game at home and Arsenal score one goal a game away which should make for a tidy 1-1 draw.  As long as our defence doesn’t go into the away “let them score another” mode which most of the media perceive.

Newcastle of course have not played a midweek match this week, while Arsenal did exactly that in Moscow, so a certain shuffling of the Arsenal team might be expected here – although fortunately we don’t have a midweek match in the coming week, so then there will be some time to recover before West Ham at home next weekend.

More details later…

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