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England v Columbia: how to work out what the score is likely to be

By Tony Attwood

You will recall that we have tried a few times so far this world cup to predict the score of a specific game.  There’s been some success but I think I would be exaggerating a little if I claimed that we were always getting it right.

Nevertheless here’s another go…  and I’ll go through the same approach as before, starting with the head to head.  Here’s the complete record…

Date Match Result Score Competition
20 May 1970 Colombia v England W 0-4 International Friendly
24 May 1988 England v Colombia D 1-1 Rous Cup
06 Sep 1995 England v Colombia D 0-0 International Friendly
26 Jun 1998 Colombia v England W 0-2 FIFA World Cup
31 May 2005 England v Colombia W 3-2 International Friendly

Just five games to look at and three wins to England, with two games drawn.

But let’s now look at recent results…

01 Sep 2017 Malta v England W 0-4 FIFA World Cup
04 Sep 2017 England v Slovakia W 2-1 FIFA World Cup
05 Oct 2017 England v Slovenia W 1-0 FIFA World Cup
08 Oct 2017 Lithuania v England W 0-1 FIFA World Cup
10 Nov 2017 England v Germany D 0-0 International Friendly
14 Nov 2017 England v Brazil D 0-0 International Friendly
23 Mar 2018 Netherlands v England W 0-1 International Friendly
27 Mar 2018 England v Italy D 1-1 International Friendly
02 Jun 2018 England v Nigeria W 2-1 International Friendly
07 Jun 2018 England v Costa Rica W 2-0 International Friendly
18 Jun 2018 Tunisia v England W 1-2 FIFA World Cup
24 Jun 2018 England v Panama W 6-1 FIFA World Cup
28 Jun 2018 England v Belgium L 0-1 FIFA World Cup

An excellent record for England with one defeat in the last 13 games.  But we may note in passing that it does include a ten match spell in which England scored zero, one or two goals.  The exceptions were against particularly weak teams: Malta and Panama.

Now Columbia has had a more varied approach to games

Date Match Result Score Competition
31 Aug 2017 Venezuela v Colombia D 0-0 FIFA World Cup
05 Sep 2017 Colombia v Brazil D 1-1 FIFA World Cup
06 Oct 2017 Colombia v Paraguay L 1-2 FIFA World Cup
10 Oct 2017 Peru v Colombia D 1-1 FIFA World Cup
10 Nov 2017 Korea Republic v Colombia L 2-1 International Friendly
14 Nov 2017 China PR v Colombia W 0-4 International Friendly
23 Mar 2018 France v Colombia W 2-3 International Friendly
27 Mar 2018 Colombia v Australia D 0-0 International Friendly
01 Jun 2018 Egypt v Colombia D 0-0 International Friendly
19 Jun 2018 Colombia v Japan L 1-2 FIFA World Cup
24 Jun 2018 Poland v Colombia W 0-3 FIFA World Cup
28 Jun 2018 Senegal v Colombia W 0-1 FIFA World Cup

We can see that in their last 12 games they have won just four, drawn five, and lost three.  So clearly England has the better record of the two in the matches in the past year.

If we consider just the last three games – those in the world cup, each team won two and lost one – Colombia had a slow start with a defeat to Japan, but in their last two games scored four and conceded nil.  England went the other way around, winning two and then losing the last game, which didn’t really matter too much.

There is one more set of stats we can try which is the history of the countries in the finals…

Here is Columbia

Series Exit level Rank P W D L F A
 1990 Round of 16 14th 4 1 1 2 4 4
 1994 Group stage 19th 3 1 0 2 4 5
 1998 Group stage 21st 3 1 0 2 1 3
2002 to 2010 Did not qualify
2014 Quarter-finals 5th 5 4 0 1 12 4

And England

Series Exit level Rank P W D L F A
1990 Fourth place 4th 7 3 3 1 8 6
1994 Did not qualify
 1998 Round of 16 9th 4 2 1 1 7 4
 2002 Quarter-finals 6th 5 2 2 1 6 3
2006 Quarter-finals 7th 5 3 2 0 6 2
 2010 Round of 16 13th 4 1 2 1 3 5
 2014 Group stage 26th 3 0 1 2 2 4

So both countries are fairly equal when it comes to the best performance and not too far apart when it comes to their worst.  Which historically puts the two countries on a par.  England has had the better run overall, but then their best recent match was against Panama who did manage to score a goal against England.

None of these figures gives us clear evidence of an obvious winner with the last two matches suggesting Columbia might sneak a result not least because they have conceded only one goal in the last five games while England have conceded four.

But overall the records are very similar.  I’d suspect it will be a 1-1 draw in normal time but that England’s better form of late will see them through in extra time, 2-1.

 

 

 

2 comments to England v Columbia: how to work out what the score is likely to be

  • MickHazel

    To coin a phrase….
    ‘What a waste of ink’
    Here’s an idea, how about we just wait and see what the final score is after the game has actually been played rather than waste energy on what may or may not happen based on irrelevant past results.

  • Lohit

    Would love to hear edurite view on the VAR usage in world cup. At least they did not claim that they got all the decision right like FA referees of 99% correct decision.

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