By Tony Attwood
You will recall that we have tried a few times so far this world cup to predict the score of a specific game. There’s been some success but I think I would be exaggerating a little if I claimed that we were always getting it right.
Nevertheless here’s another go… and I’ll go through the same approach as before, starting with the head to head. Here’s the complete record…
| Date | Match | Result | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 May 1970 | Colombia v England | W | 0-4 | International Friendly |
| 24 May 1988 | England v Colombia | D | 1-1 | Rous Cup |
| 06 Sep 1995 | England v Colombia | D | 0-0 | International Friendly |
| 26 Jun 1998 | Colombia v England | W | 0-2 | FIFA World Cup |
| 31 May 2005 | England v Colombia | W | 3-2 | International Friendly |
Just five games to look at and three wins to England, with two games drawn.
But let’s now look at recent results…
| 01 Sep 2017 | Malta v England | W | 0-4 | FIFA World Cup |
| 04 Sep 2017 | England v Slovakia | W | 2-1 | FIFA World Cup |
| 05 Oct 2017 | England v Slovenia | W | 1-0 | FIFA World Cup |
| 08 Oct 2017 | Lithuania v England | W | 0-1 | FIFA World Cup |
| 10 Nov 2017 | England v Germany | D | 0-0 | International Friendly |
| 14 Nov 2017 | England v Brazil | D | 0-0 | International Friendly |
| 23 Mar 2018 | Netherlands v England | W | 0-1 | International Friendly |
| 27 Mar 2018 | England v Italy | D | 1-1 | International Friendly |
| 02 Jun 2018 | England v Nigeria | W | 2-1 | International Friendly |
| 07 Jun 2018 | England v Costa Rica | W | 2-0 | International Friendly |
| 18 Jun 2018 | Tunisia v England | W | 1-2 | FIFA World Cup |
| 24 Jun 2018 | England v Panama | W | 6-1 | FIFA World Cup |
| 28 Jun 2018 | England v Belgium | L | 0-1 | FIFA World Cup |
An excellent record for England with one defeat in the last 13 games. But we may note in passing that it does include a ten match spell in which England scored zero, one or two goals. The exceptions were against particularly weak teams: Malta and Panama.
Now Columbia has had a more varied approach to games
| Date | Match | Result | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug 2017 | Venezuela v Colombia | D | 0-0 | FIFA World Cup |
| 05 Sep 2017 | Colombia v Brazil | D | 1-1 | FIFA World Cup |
| 06 Oct 2017 | Colombia v Paraguay | L | 1-2 | FIFA World Cup |
| 10 Oct 2017 | Peru v Colombia | D | 1-1 | FIFA World Cup |
| 10 Nov 2017 | Korea Republic v Colombia | L | 2-1 | International Friendly |
| 14 Nov 2017 | China PR v Colombia | W | 0-4 | International Friendly |
| 23 Mar 2018 | France v Colombia | W | 2-3 | International Friendly |
| 27 Mar 2018 | Colombia v Australia | D | 0-0 | International Friendly |
| 01 Jun 2018 | Egypt v Colombia | D | 0-0 | International Friendly |
| 19 Jun 2018 | Colombia v Japan | L | 1-2 | FIFA World Cup |
| 24 Jun 2018 | Poland v Colombia | W | 0-3 | FIFA World Cup |
| 28 Jun 2018 | Senegal v Colombia | W | 0-1 | FIFA World Cup |
We can see that in their last 12 games they have won just four, drawn five, and lost three. So clearly England has the better record of the two in the matches in the past year.
If we consider just the last three games – those in the world cup, each team won two and lost one – Colombia had a slow start with a defeat to Japan, but in their last two games scored four and conceded nil. England went the other way around, winning two and then losing the last game, which didn’t really matter too much.
There is one more set of stats we can try which is the history of the countries in the finals…
Here is Columbia
| Series | Exit level | Rank | P | W | D | L | F | A |
| 1990 | Round of 16 | 14th | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 1994 | Group stage | 19th | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 1998 | Group stage | 21st | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2002 to 2010 | Did not qualify | |||||||
| 2014 | Quarter-finals | 5th | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 4 |
And England
| Series | Exit level | Rank | P | W | D | L | F | A |
| 1990 | Fourth place | 4th | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 |
| 1994 | Did not qualify | |||||||
| 1998 | Round of 16 | 9th | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| 2002 | Quarter-finals | 6th | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 |
| 2006 | Quarter-finals | 7th | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 |
| 2010 | Round of 16 | 13th | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| 2014 | Group stage | 26th | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
So both countries are fairly equal when it comes to the best performance and not too far apart when it comes to their worst. Which historically puts the two countries on a par. England has had the better run overall, but then their best recent match was against Panama who did manage to score a goal against England.
None of these figures gives us clear evidence of an obvious winner with the last two matches suggesting Columbia might sneak a result not least because they have conceded only one goal in the last five games while England have conceded four.
But overall the records are very similar. I’d suspect it will be a 1-1 draw in normal time but that England’s better form of late will see them through in extra time, 2-1.
- Forget Torreira, Monreal replacement, drop Xhaka, bring back Joel, buy another keeper, sign Son
- It’s been going on so long I expected to read a rumour that Torreira is leaving Arsenal
- Who has spent the most, who has gained the most, and which clubs are moribund?
To coin a phrase….
‘What a waste of ink’
Here’s an idea, how about we just wait and see what the final score is after the game has actually been played rather than waste energy on what may or may not happen based on irrelevant past results.
Would love to hear edurite view on the VAR usage in world cup. At least they did not claim that they got all the decision right like FA referees of 99% correct decision.