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England v Sweden: the Untold prediction. Will our run of correct predictions continue?

By Bulldog Drummond

If you have been reading Untold regularly you’ll know three things about Untold and international football.  The first is that we don’t care for it because of it is run by the mafia-like Fifa and allows the mainstream media to idolise corruption, theft and violence – all of which are associated with Fifa.   The second is it is a chance for Arsenal players to get injured.   Third, British tax payers contribute to the costs of running the FA, and we’d sooner save that money and put it towards the NHS.

But the thing is out there, and we wondered if there was anything we could say about the WC that hasn’t been said elsewhere (apart from the fact that we wished it wasn’t there).

And we came up with the idea of seeing if the very simple methodology that we have used to predict Arsenal results could be used in internationals.

All we do is look at both sides recent records, and the head to head results, and then assume that any runs of results will continue.  Of course all runs come to an end, but they also keep going for some time… which is why they are runs.  And finally the notion of using this system seemed to fit the Untold brief, since no one else is using it in quite this way, although any moment now I suspect some sites or papers will nick it.  It’s what happens.

So far we have got three results on 90 minutes correct out of three predictions, and two scores on 90 minutes correct out of three predictions.   (We didn’t publish predictions for the first England game).   Thus, still ready to make fools of ourselves we are having another go with England v Sweden.

First off, the England games.   The table is taken from the excellent 11v11.com site which we all highly recommend.

Date Match Result Score Comp
01 Sep 2017 Malta v England W 0-4 World Cup
04 Sep 2017 England v Slovakia W 2-1 World Cup
05 Oct 2017 England v Slovenia W 1-0 World Cup
08 Oct 2017 Lithuania v England W 0-1 World Cup
10 Nov 2017 England v Germany D 0-0 Friendly
14 Nov 2017 England v Brazil D 0-0 Friendly
23 Mar 2018 Netherlands v England W 0-1 Friendly
27 Mar 2018 England v Italy D 1-1 Friendly
02 Jun 2018 England v Nigeria W 2-1 Friendly
07 Jun 2018 England v Costa Rica W 2-0 Friendly
18 Jun 2018 Tunisia v England W 1-2 World Cup
24 Jun 2018 England v Panama W 6-1 World Cup
28 Jun 2018 England v Belgium L 0-1 World Cup
03 Jul 2018 Colombia v England D 1-1 World Cup

One defeat in the last 14 games is obviously impressive.  As is four wins and one defeat and one draw in the last six games, remembering we look at the 90 minute score.

Now we look at the England v Sweden games.   And here we go right back to 1979, considering the results from England’s point of view.

Date Game Res Score Competition
10 Jun 1979 Sweden v England D 0-0 Friendly
10 Sep 1986 Sweden v England L 1-0 Friendly
19 Oct 1988 England v Sweden D 0-0 World Cup
06 Sep 1989 Sweden v England D 0-0 World Cup
17 Jun 1992 Sweden v England L 2-1 Euro Championship
08 Jun 1995 England v Sweden D 3-3 Umbro Cup
05 Sep 1998 Sweden v England L 2-1 Euro Championship
05 Jun 1999 England v Sweden D 0-0 Euro Championship
10 Nov 2001 England v Sweden D 1-1 Friendly
02 Jun 2002 England v Sweden D 1-1 World Cup
31 Mar 2004 Sweden v England L 1-0 Friendly
20 Jun 2006 Sweden v England D 2-2 World Cup
15 Nov 2011 England v Sweden W 1-0 Friendly
15 Jun 2012 Sweden v England W 2-3 Euro Championship
14 Nov 2012 Sweden v England L 4-2 Friendly

Looking at the most recent times England have won two and lost one.  But, and this is where we find the surprising stat that we always look for – England have only won twice against Sweden in 15 games.  That really is a surprise, given that our perception of Sweden is of a small country with a league played in the summer and very modest clubs.

However the benefit Sweden has is that its players play all over the world.  Here is the squad.

Player Club Age Pos
1 Karl-Johan Johnsson Guingamp 28 GK
2 Kristoffer Nordfeldt Swansea City 28 GK
3 Robin Olsen Copenhagen 27 GK
4 Mikael Lustig Celtic 31 Defender
5 Victor Lindelöf Manchester United 23 Defender
6 Andreas Granqvist (C) Krasondar 32 Defender
7 Martin Olsson Swansea City 29 Defender
8 Ludwig Augustinsson Werder Bremen 23 Defender
9 Filip Helander Bologna FC 22 Defender
10 Emil Krafth Bologna 23 Defender
11 Pontus Jansson Leeds United 27 Defender
12 Sebastian Larsson Hull City 32 Midfielder
13 Viktor Claesson FC Krasnodar 26 Midfielder
14 Gustav Svensson Seattle Sounders FC 31 Midfielder
15 Emil Forsberg RB Lepizig 26 Midfielder
16 Oscar Hiljemark Genoa 25 Midfielder
17 Marcus Rohden FC Crotone 27 Midfielder
18 Jimmy Durmaz Tolouse 21 Midfielder
19 Albin Ekdal Hamburger SV 28 Midfielder
20 Marcus Berg Al Ain 31 Forward
21 Ola Toivonen Tolouse 31 Forward
22 John Guidetti Alves 25 Forward
23 Isaac Kiese Thelin Waasland-Beveren 25 Forward

On the downside for Sweden many of the players do play for very modest clubs, on the upside they bring in a range of international experience.   England is the only country in this WC set of finals that has only players playing in its own country in the list.

Here are the recent Sweden matches, the format again taken from 11v11.com

Date Match Res Score Comp
31 Aug 2017 Bulgaria v Sweden L 3-2 World Cup
03 Sep 2017 Belarus v Sweden W 0-4 World Cup
07 Oct 2017 Sweden v Luxembourg W 8-0 World Cup
10 Oct 2017 Netherlands v Sweden L 2-0 World Cup
10 Nov 2017 Sweden v Italy W 1-0 World Cup
13 Nov 2017 Italy v Sweden D 0-0 World Cup
11 Jan 2018 Sweden v Denmark W 1-0 Friendly
24 Mar 2018 Sweden v Chile L 1-2 Friendly
27 Mar 2018 Romania v Sweden L 1-0 Friendly
02 Jun 2018 Sweden v Denmark D 0-0 Friendly
09 Jun 2018 Sweden v Peru D 0-0 Friendly
18 Jun 2018 Sweden v Korea Republic W 1-0 World Cup
23 Jun 2018 Germany v Sweden L 2-1 World Cup
27 Jun 2018 Mexico v Sweden W 0-3 World Cup
03 Jul 2018 Sweden v Switzerland W 1-0 World Cup

Three victories and one defeat in the last four games, but before that a run of defeats and draws.

Pulling this together we might take the recent results as a key indicator.   Three wins and a defeat for Sweden.  Two wins a defeat and a draw (at 90 mins) for England.  That gives Sweden the slight edge.

In the four world cup games Sweden has scored six and conceded two.  For England it is nine goals for and four against.  In competitive games England usually come out on top – we have to go back 10 years for the last Sweden victory over England outside a friendly.

In the last four games between the two countries there have been an average of 4.0 goals per game.  I think that will continue and the closeness between the two in competitive matches will continue.  I am going for a draw on 90 minutes at 2-2.  England ultimately to go through.

And a footnote – no Arsenal players are likely to be injured in the playing of this game – unless Danny Welbeck is called up which seems unlikely.

 

 

 

8 comments to England v Sweden: the Untold prediction. Will our run of correct predictions continue?

  • Stephen Vallins

    Do you think that England will score 2 goals in open play or set pieces ?

  • Samuel Akinsola Adebosin

    Being a member of the elite club of World Cup winners in 1966 but at home at Wembley against West Germany, normally, England should overcome the Swedish resistant in this World Cup quaterfinal match encounter between the duo senior national teams to advance to the semis. But since Sweden have suffered only 2 defeats against England in the last 15 games between themselves, I think England should be careful not to take beating Sweden for granted in this match on Saturday. For, to do that could cost England a semifinal berth in the tournament to the advantage of Sweden advancing.

    For his having a good goals scoring record for England, I think the England team manager, Gareth Southgate could play Arsenal’s Danny Welbeck as a substitute in the match to see if he’ll score for England .

    A draw game at fulltime and extra time is on the cards but still, the England will scale through on shoot out again as they did against Colombia.

  • Brickfields Gunners

    I have a feeling that England will be timely assisted by VAR , to propagate the mutual advancement of both .

    I offer no facts nor figures , and as I said before , it’s just a feeling !

  • Brickfields Gunners

    *Neymarism* : a psychological condition where the victim feels an uncontrollable urge to pretend or exaggerate hurt or injury to the level of deathlike pain, often through sheer imagination.

    Uses : “ Can you believe it ! he _neymared_ the claim agent again !”

    “The public wont buy the Opposition’s _neymaristic_ portrayal of our government’s accomplishments.”

    “ For God’s sake ! will you stop _neymaring_ about your boss ?”

  • Brickfields Gunners

    The football world as we know it has been changed forever –

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qvtEwgCvPY

  • Jimbo

    What minute will Kane win our first penalty in and how cleverly will he disguise his dive?

  • Brickfields Gunners

    @ Jimbo -06/07/2018 – It’ll be around the 60th minute , and he does NOT have to disguise it !
    Wink ! Wink !

  • U Know Who

    No set peices, lads, those pale faces are in the street again, jumping about for no good reason, this time they beat Sweden, meaning baran upset, England face Russia, if I had any interest at all in politics, which I clearly don’t I would have scrummaged up a small woop, woop!

    This is the game I want.

    France v Belgium is interesting, coudld be eventful, with a nominal number of goals, but look sset for a great finale, even if I have found this World Cup underwhelming, as if the World had grudginly accepted a need for a distraction from global crisis and terrorism.

    Funny how terrorists by and large fail to capitalise on these events, instead flying through radar checkpoints undetected, to start wars, or attacking Westminister, on days when the Scottish are voting on issues which are in opposition to brek-zhit.

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