By Bulldog Drummond
If you have been reading Untold regularly you’ll know three things about Untold and international football. The first is that we don’t care for it because of it is run by the mafia-like Fifa and allows the mainstream media to idolise corruption, theft and violence – all of which are associated with Fifa. The second is it is a chance for Arsenal players to get injured. Third, British tax payers contribute to the costs of running the FA, and we’d sooner save that money and put it towards the NHS.
But the thing is out there, and we wondered if there was anything we could say about the WC that hasn’t been said elsewhere (apart from the fact that we wished it wasn’t there).
And we came up with the idea of seeing if the very simple methodology that we have used to predict Arsenal results could be used in internationals.
All we do is look at both sides recent records, and the head to head results, and then assume that any runs of results will continue. Of course all runs come to an end, but they also keep going for some time… which is why they are runs. And finally the notion of using this system seemed to fit the Untold brief, since no one else is using it in quite this way, although any moment now I suspect some sites or papers will nick it. It’s what happens.
So far we have got three results on 90 minutes correct out of three predictions, and two scores on 90 minutes correct out of three predictions. (We didn’t publish predictions for the first England game). Thus, still ready to make fools of ourselves we are having another go with England v Sweden.
First off, the England games. The table is taken from the excellent 11v11.com site which we all highly recommend.
| Date | Match | Result | Score | Comp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Sep 2017 | Malta v England | W | 0-4 | World Cup |
| 04 Sep 2017 | England v Slovakia | W | 2-1 | World Cup |
| 05 Oct 2017 | England v Slovenia | W | 1-0 | World Cup |
| 08 Oct 2017 | Lithuania v England | W | 0-1 | World Cup |
| 10 Nov 2017 | England v Germany | D | 0-0 | Friendly |
| 14 Nov 2017 | England v Brazil | D | 0-0 | Friendly |
| 23 Mar 2018 | Netherlands v England | W | 0-1 | Friendly |
| 27 Mar 2018 | England v Italy | D | 1-1 | Friendly |
| 02 Jun 2018 | England v Nigeria | W | 2-1 | Friendly |
| 07 Jun 2018 | England v Costa Rica | W | 2-0 | Friendly |
| 18 Jun 2018 | Tunisia v England | W | 1-2 | World Cup |
| 24 Jun 2018 | England v Panama | W | 6-1 | World Cup |
| 28 Jun 2018 | England v Belgium | L | 0-1 | World Cup |
| 03 Jul 2018 | Colombia v England | D | 1-1 | World Cup |
One defeat in the last 14 games is obviously impressive. As is four wins and one defeat and one draw in the last six games, remembering we look at the 90 minute score.
Now we look at the England v Sweden games. And here we go right back to 1979, considering the results from England’s point of view.
| Date | Game | Res | Score | Competition |
| 10 Jun 1979 | Sweden v England | D | 0-0 | Friendly |
| 10 Sep 1986 | Sweden v England | L | 1-0 | Friendly |
| 19 Oct 1988 | England v Sweden | D | 0-0 | World Cup |
| 06 Sep 1989 | Sweden v England | D | 0-0 | World Cup |
| 17 Jun 1992 | Sweden v England | L | 2-1 | Euro Championship |
| 08 Jun 1995 | England v Sweden | D | 3-3 | Umbro Cup |
| 05 Sep 1998 | Sweden v England | L | 2-1 | Euro Championship |
| 05 Jun 1999 | England v Sweden | D | 0-0 | Euro Championship |
| 10 Nov 2001 | England v Sweden | D | 1-1 | Friendly |
| 02 Jun 2002 | England v Sweden | D | 1-1 | World Cup |
| 31 Mar 2004 | Sweden v England | L | 1-0 | Friendly |
| 20 Jun 2006 | Sweden v England | D | 2-2 | World Cup |
| 15 Nov 2011 | England v Sweden | W | 1-0 | Friendly |
| 15 Jun 2012 | Sweden v England | W | 2-3 | Euro Championship |
| 14 Nov 2012 | Sweden v England | L | 4-2 | Friendly |
Looking at the most recent times England have won two and lost one. But, and this is where we find the surprising stat that we always look for – England have only won twice against Sweden in 15 games. That really is a surprise, given that our perception of Sweden is of a small country with a league played in the summer and very modest clubs.
However the benefit Sweden has is that its players play all over the world. Here is the squad.
| Player | Club | Age | Pos | |
| 1 | Karl-Johan Johnsson | Guingamp | 28 | GK |
| 2 | Kristoffer Nordfeldt | Swansea City | 28 | GK |
| 3 | Robin Olsen | Copenhagen | 27 | GK |
| 4 | Mikael Lustig | Celtic | 31 | Defender |
| 5 | Victor Lindelöf | Manchester United | 23 | Defender |
| 6 | Andreas Granqvist (C) | Krasondar | 32 | Defender |
| 7 | Martin Olsson | Swansea City | 29 | Defender |
| 8 | Ludwig Augustinsson | Werder Bremen | 23 | Defender |
| 9 | Filip Helander | Bologna FC | 22 | Defender |
| 10 | Emil Krafth | Bologna | 23 | Defender |
| 11 | Pontus Jansson | Leeds United | 27 | Defender |
| 12 | Sebastian Larsson | Hull City | 32 | Midfielder |
| 13 | Viktor Claesson | FC Krasnodar | 26 | Midfielder |
| 14 | Gustav Svensson | Seattle Sounders FC | 31 | Midfielder |
| 15 | Emil Forsberg | RB Lepizig | 26 | Midfielder |
| 16 | Oscar Hiljemark | Genoa | 25 | Midfielder |
| 17 | Marcus Rohden | FC Crotone | 27 | Midfielder |
| 18 | Jimmy Durmaz | Tolouse | 21 | Midfielder |
| 19 | Albin Ekdal | Hamburger SV | 28 | Midfielder |
| 20 | Marcus Berg | Al Ain | 31 | Forward |
| 21 | Ola Toivonen | Tolouse | 31 | Forward |
| 22 | John Guidetti | Alves | 25 | Forward |
| 23 | Isaac Kiese Thelin | Waasland-Beveren | 25 | Forward |
On the downside for Sweden many of the players do play for very modest clubs, on the upside they bring in a range of international experience. England is the only country in this WC set of finals that has only players playing in its own country in the list.
Here are the recent Sweden matches, the format again taken from 11v11.com
| Date | Match | Res | Score | Comp |
| 31 Aug 2017 | Bulgaria v Sweden | L | 3-2 | World Cup |
| 03 Sep 2017 | Belarus v Sweden | W | 0-4 | World Cup |
| 07 Oct 2017 | Sweden v Luxembourg | W | 8-0 | World Cup |
| 10 Oct 2017 | Netherlands v Sweden | L | 2-0 | World Cup |
| 10 Nov 2017 | Sweden v Italy | W | 1-0 | World Cup |
| 13 Nov 2017 | Italy v Sweden | D | 0-0 | World Cup |
| 11 Jan 2018 | Sweden v Denmark | W | 1-0 | Friendly |
| 24 Mar 2018 | Sweden v Chile | L | 1-2 | Friendly |
| 27 Mar 2018 | Romania v Sweden | L | 1-0 | Friendly |
| 02 Jun 2018 | Sweden v Denmark | D | 0-0 | Friendly |
| 09 Jun 2018 | Sweden v Peru | D | 0-0 | Friendly |
| 18 Jun 2018 | Sweden v Korea Republic | W | 1-0 | World Cup |
| 23 Jun 2018 | Germany v Sweden | L | 2-1 | World Cup |
| 27 Jun 2018 | Mexico v Sweden | W | 0-3 | World Cup |
| 03 Jul 2018 | Sweden v Switzerland | W | 1-0 | World Cup |
Three victories and one defeat in the last four games, but before that a run of defeats and draws.
Pulling this together we might take the recent results as a key indicator. Three wins and a defeat for Sweden. Two wins a defeat and a draw (at 90 mins) for England. That gives Sweden the slight edge.
In the four world cup games Sweden has scored six and conceded two. For England it is nine goals for and four against. In competitive games England usually come out on top – we have to go back 10 years for the last Sweden victory over England outside a friendly.
In the last four games between the two countries there have been an average of 4.0 goals per game. I think that will continue and the closeness between the two in competitive matches will continue. I am going for a draw on 90 minutes at 2-2. England ultimately to go through.
And a footnote – no Arsenal players are likely to be injured in the playing of this game – unless Danny Welbeck is called up which seems unlikely.
- Let the negativity begin. Blogs drop their pro-Emery stance with a vengeance and we’re back to the knocking
- Squad news plus Emile Smith Rowe – another name to add to our Cup team
- Untold’s predictions for England results and scores: five out of six right.
Do you think that England will score 2 goals in open play or set pieces ?
Being a member of the elite club of World Cup winners in 1966 but at home at Wembley against West Germany, normally, England should overcome the Swedish resistant in this World Cup quaterfinal match encounter between the duo senior national teams to advance to the semis. But since Sweden have suffered only 2 defeats against England in the last 15 games between themselves, I think England should be careful not to take beating Sweden for granted in this match on Saturday. For, to do that could cost England a semifinal berth in the tournament to the advantage of Sweden advancing.
For his having a good goals scoring record for England, I think the England team manager, Gareth Southgate could play Arsenal’s Danny Welbeck as a substitute in the match to see if he’ll score for England .
A draw game at fulltime and extra time is on the cards but still, the England will scale through on shoot out again as they did against Colombia.
I have a feeling that England will be timely assisted by VAR , to propagate the mutual advancement of both .
I offer no facts nor figures , and as I said before , it’s just a feeling !
*Neymarism* : a psychological condition where the victim feels an uncontrollable urge to pretend or exaggerate hurt or injury to the level of deathlike pain, often through sheer imagination.
Uses : “ Can you believe it ! he _neymared_ the claim agent again !”
“The public wont buy the Opposition’s _neymaristic_ portrayal of our government’s accomplishments.”
“ For God’s sake ! will you stop _neymaring_ about your boss ?”
The football world as we know it has been changed forever –
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qvtEwgCvPY
What minute will Kane win our first penalty in and how cleverly will he disguise his dive?
@ Jimbo -06/07/2018 – It’ll be around the 60th minute , and he does NOT have to disguise it !
Wink ! Wink !
No set peices, lads, those pale faces are in the street again, jumping about for no good reason, this time they beat Sweden, meaning baran upset, England face Russia, if I had any interest at all in politics, which I clearly don’t I would have scrummaged up a small woop, woop!
This is the game I want.
France v Belgium is interesting, coudld be eventful, with a nominal number of goals, but look sset for a great finale, even if I have found this World Cup underwhelming, as if the World had grudginly accepted a need for a distraction from global crisis and terrorism.
Funny how terrorists by and large fail to capitalise on these events, instead flying through radar checkpoints undetected, to start wars, or attacking Westminister, on days when the Scottish are voting on issues which are in opposition to brek-zhit.