Since Manchester City’s first title win under Pep Guardiola in 2017-18, the various Premier League winners have knocked in a total number of points between 100 and 86.
And since Arsenal now stand on 64 points at the top of the table with ten games left to play that means their points total will end up as somewhere between 64 and 94.
This implies that Arsenal will in all probability have to go unbeaten or at the very least mostly unbeaten in the league from here on to the final round of matches on May 19.
This is how things look at the moment, although the chances are you’ve already had a sneak look, just to make sure you didn’t imagine yesterday’s result. And of course this is before today’s game involving that bunch of northern scalliwags from, well, the north.
| Team | Pld | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 28 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 70 | 24 | 46 | 64 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 27 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 64 | 25 | 39 | 63 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 27 | 19 | 5 | 3 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 62 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 27 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 59 | 37 | 22 | 55 |
So to get to 86, the lowest number of points that has recently won the title Arsenal need 22 points from ten games which is easy enough: seven wins, 1 draw and two defeats would see to it.
But at the other extreme if the requirement is to get to 100 points. – that is impossible for the very simple reason that this requirement needs 36 more points, and Arsenal only have 30 points available, So even if Arsenal win every single game they can’t make it.
The good news however is neither can anyone else. Writing as I am before the Manchester City game begins today, the maximum number of points this season is 96.
Arsenal’s maximum is in fact 94 points, by winning each match. In the table below I have taken each game yet to come for Arsenal and consider what seems to me to be the likely outcome using the sort of super computer that Football London conjures up out of thin air and pretends it has access to throughout the season.
In other words I’ve taken a wild guess. Here are the Arsenal games for the rest of the season…
- Sunday 31st March: Manchester City away
- Wednesday 3rd April: Luton Town home
- Saturday 6th April: Brighton and Hove away
- Saturday 13th April: Aston Villa home
- Saturday 20th April: Wolverhampton Wanderers away
- Saturday 27th April: Tottenham Hotspur away
- Saturday 4th May: Bournemouth home
- Saturday 11th May: Manchester United away
- Sunday 19th May: Everton home
- No date: Chelsea home
Now in this I am going to take a simple route and suggest there is not going to be any sort of sudden dip in form of the type that we saw last year. So leaving that aside I would have wins against…
- Luton, Brighton, Aton Villa, Wolverhampton, Bournemouth, Everton, Manchester United, Chelsea.
Which would leave
- Manchester City away: defeat
- Tottenham Hotspur away: draw
So eight wins and a draw gives Arsenal 25 points which makes the season end a total of 89 points. But 89 points has only won the league twice in the last ten years.
However, all is not lost since the fact is that there has only been one three-way race to the end in the last ten years and that was in fact ten years ago in 2014. when the table finished…
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 38 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 102 | 37 | 65 | 86 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 101 | 50 | 51 | 84 |
| 3 | Chelsea | 38 | 25 | 7 | 6 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 82 |
In fact just a week before the end of the season Manchester City were in third place through having played one game fewer….
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 36 | 25 | 5 | 6 | 96 | 46 | 50 | 80 |
| 2 | Chelsea | 36 | 24 | 6 | 6 | 69 | 26 | 43 | 78 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 35 | 24 | 5 | 6 | 93 | 35 | 58 | 77 |
So how did that table look after 27 games?
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 49 | 21 | 28 | 60 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 27 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 52 | 27 | 25 | 59 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 26 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 69 | 27 | 42 | 57 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 27 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 70 | 35 | 35 | 56 |
In that season, Manchester City, with two games in hand won those games and that took them up to the top of the gable because of their superior goal difference.
In fact, in 2014 Manchester City went on a 12-match run that read, “won nine, drew two lost one,” pretty much what Arsenal would have to do to have a chance of winning the league.
It wasn’t an endless stream of high-scoring victories – they scored five once, four twice, three … three times, and in the rest of the games got two goals in every match except the 1-1 draw with Arsenal at the Emirates.
So it is still all to play for as they say, but we need to be aware of those scalliwags from the northwest.
Well well, top of the league. What a race it’s going to be.
If we can beat Man City then it’s wide open.
reg
Even a drew keeps it bubbling along nicely, although of course that puts it back in Liverpools hands.
I think that we are as good or better than Liverpool or Man City, but I believe that PGMOL will do whàtever they can to stop us winniing the leaague. We know already that VAR has unjustly deprived us of points, which is why we are level with Liverpòol and only one point above Man. City.
The incompetence of referees and VAR is like a bottomless pit.
Look at the first picture of the match report
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2024/mar/10/liverpool-manchester-city-premier-league-match-report
From all I can read, Doku did not get even just a yellow for that… I mean, WTF ? Do that outside the stadium, you’re in jail. Here, nothing…
Chris
I agree VAR is pathetic, and we have been on the receiving end more than most, but that photograph makes it look much worse than it was.
I am no apologist for VAR or Liverpool, but the ball bounced up to chest level and Doku made a genuine, if slightly desperate clearance. He actually kicked the ball first and cleared the danger, then his foot went into his chest. In my opinion it wasn’t a foul. There was no intent. There was no forward motion. The contact, as bad as the picture makes it look, was minimal, although it may well of hurt.
That being said, a foul still could of been given on the basis of a ‘high boot, so a penalty could of been given. Any further action though, such as a card, would of been very harsh.
Or Man City I meant.
I’ve just read the report and it says Doku missed the ball. That is not true. He clearly kicked the ball first. You always know a reporter is on dodgy ground when he has to exaggerate or lie.
Chris
It’s here from 2 min 40 secs
https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/13088552/liverpool-1-1-man-city-alexis-mac-allister-cancels-out-john-stones-opener-as-title-rivals-play-out-epic-draw
As you will see he gets the ball and even though he catches him with the follow through he tries to pull out. For all the reasons stated above I can see why no foul was given, but it’s definitely in the ‘I’ve seen them given’ category.
Could of gone either way but that photo makes it look much worse.
@Nitram,
there was – and visibly is not anymore – a ‘rule’ that says that a high foot (high like in dangerous because you could hit an opponent in the chest/head) was outlawed and dangerous and I’ve seen this given as a foul so many times. So the intent to hit the opponent counted less as the dangerousness of the move which I find absolutely ok. And in this case, this is what it was, at least to me.
In the end I don’t give a rat’s ass as per the result, it is all good for Arsenal – let them lose points and get all upset about decisions of the PGMOL incompetents.
Love to see how the 1-1 is considered such a great game when Arsenal and Pool! did get the same result before Christmas and the game was no less intense.
Funny to see how Arsenal are not really part of the conversation right now… all about Klopp-Guardiola, oh we’ll miss you so much etc.etc.etc…. just waiting for the cue on TV asking us to take our white handkerchiefs to wave goodbye and dry our tears….
Let them keep the attention and leave Arsenal alone. All the better for us. That being said, considering how permeable the City defense was, I’d say we can take our chance to score not only one goal at the Etihad. Our forward line is more experienced then Liverpool’s. Must give Klopp credit for getting some youngsters out and have them perform. How well they’ll with a new manager is another issue.
Love the pseudo science. Lots of numbers signifying nothing then at the end just guess the results of the remaining matches. What is interesting looking at the run in is that both Villa and Spurs play all three of the top teams. Given those are the two next best teams according to the league table and will probably be fighting for that fourth spot until the end of the season those games look to be significant. I’d be reluctant to forecast the result of any Chelsea or United game at the moment. For both clubs its about a total lack of consistency, they can get hammered one game then turn it on the next.
Chris
“there was – and visibly is not anymore – a ‘rule’ that says that a high foot (high like in dangerous because you could hit an opponent in the chest/head) was outlawed and dangerous and I’ve seen this given as a foul so many times. So the intent to hit the opponent counted less as the dangerousness of the move which I find absolutely ok. And in this case, this is what it was, at least to me.”
Absolutely agree.
The thing is does that rule exist? If so, then it should of been a foul/penalty simply on the basis of how high his boot was, irrespective of ‘intent’ or whether he got the ball. In other words a very straight forward decision for both the referee and or VAR.
But Mike Dean in his analysis said “They (VAR) must of deemed it ‘A natural coming together””. He never mentioned that a boot that high is automatically a foul, but then again he also said “He was lucky” so who knows what the rule is?
Anyway, I can only echo your comment when you say “In the end I don’t give a rat’s ass as per the result, it is all good for Arsenal – let them lose points and get all upset about decisions of the PGMOL incompetents”.
As per the match, I thought Liverpool were the better team and as you say, with 19 shots, 6 on target, showed this City team can be got at, but it was at the expense of allowing them 10 shots on their goal, also with 6 on target.
Compare that with our 1 – 0 win at the Em’s where we only managed 12 shots with just the 2 on target, but here’s the thing. We restricted City to just 4 attempts with 1 solitary shot on target.
There in lies the dilemma. Are City ‘Get Atable’ for want of a better word? Do we ‘go at them’ in the belief we will score, not just 1 but some goals, and risk conceding, hopefully less than we score? Or do we do what we did at the Em’s and try to keep them at arms length, which is very very tough at the Etihad, and hope to snatch a winner?
Glad it’s not me that has to decide.
And as for:
“Funny to see how Arsenal are not really part of the conversation right now… all about Klopp-Guardiola, oh we’ll miss you so much etc.etc.etc…. just waiting for the cue on TV asking us to take our white handkerchiefs to wave goodbye and dry our tears….”
Very funny, but you are right. The love-in is nauseating.
Have you read Oliver Holt over the last few days, he’s positively orgasmic.
It is worrying because more and more they are building this into an actual lap of honour for Klopp. You just keep hearing how ‘wonderful’ it would be if Klopp could ‘bow out’ with the title bla bla bla.
My worry, as always, is that the referees hear all this and will be as aware as the rest of us of just how much the media (as an entity) would love to see Klopp go out on this high. My argument has always been that when it comes to making ‘tight’ calls they err towards what they think will be the ‘popular’ call. What will get them least criticism or most praise, and what worries me is giving anything ‘tight’ in our favour will invoke the wrath of the media, and quite the opposite when it comes to Liverpool.
Ironically, it was that non concession of a penalty last night that gives me a tiny bit of hope, but my question is, would it of been given if it was against us?
Lets hope my fears are ungrounded.
jod
You dismiss an article on the basis it uses numbers as an analytical tool and prime indicator, much as science has done for millennia. How very odd.
Then you have a go at the authors predictions. Why?
A- It is just a bit of fun.
b-Most people do it.
But why do they do it? Because, well you cant help yourself. Of course managers players all say it’s just about ‘the next game’ which is what they do. What they should do. They are professionals. Focus. Prepare for the next game.
But almost everybody else, except of course you, as you are above all that it seems, does. It’s why all over the media we have ‘How do Arsenals Liverpool’s and City’s next five matches look’ etc. etc. ? Then they make predictions. It’s not a new concept Tony’s come up with there!!
And then what really made me laugh was this:
“What is interesting looking at the run in is that both Villa and Spurs play all three of the top teams”
Why is it interesting? Because you say so? I don’t think it’s interesting at all.
See how easy it is to be facetious.
Nitram,
I also hope that your fears are unfounded, but I doubt that they are. The Brentford game gave a flavour of what we might expect, through the match officials refusal to consider our penalty claims in the second half when it was still 1-1 and the continued tolerance of Brentford plqyers collapsing and lying on the ground to waste time and disrupt the game. (a sad irony that this led to an extra 8 minutes for them to pursue a second equaliser)..
As others have said previously, we seem to need to score enough goals to put games to bed, in order to make it impossible for referees to tilt the balance against us.
As an aside, I feel that it is outrageous for Dean to be on television to comment on referee decisions. I have no doubt at all that, contrary to what he said about the Liverpool penalty claim, he would have given an instant penalty for that incident if it was in Arsenal’s penalty area.
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