How does the end of this season compare to last season, for Arsenal?

 

• What would happen if Manchester City were found guilty?
• What are the key issues in football? Is Arsenal on the edge of a new 1930s?

According to the Telegraph “Arsenal are not quite the youngest team in the league, but the average age of their Premier League starting XI this season is 25 years and 135 days. Only Burnley and Chelsea have recorded a younger average age.”

That is interesting in that it suggests Arsenal’s current squad can only get better.   Given that  Manchester City and Liverpool’s average age is in the middle range for the Premier League, they will be needing to introduce one or two younger players as time goes by, and such players can take time to adjust.

Meanwhile according to the Athletic  Arsenal have been making use of research into “the type of squad blends which tend to establish periods of sustained dominance.”   Such data can only help net season.

What we have also been seeing is Arteta gradually move away from the lessons learned and approaches used while he was working under Guardiola at Macnehster City.

In particular we can see this with the input of Nicolas Jover whose work as a set piece coach the media has recently noticed.   He came from Brentford while they were in the Championship and seems to have had a fantastic input into the team.

All of which has led to a situation in which Arsenal are not only top of the league but also have not been beaten by the big clubs around them in the league this season.  Most impressively in four games against Manchester City and Liverpool the haul for Arsenal has been eight points.

And given that the media endlessly reminded us that Arsenal hadn’t kept a clean sheet at City’s ground since Noah was building an ark, that is rather a big step forward.    Plus consecutive wins at the unsponsored stadium – that’s not bad either.

But the key issue last season was the final run-in, and a comparison of this season with what happened then is obviously worthwhile.   And this needs to include a comparison of whom we played.

Last season, four of the last nine games were against other members of the ultimate top six clubs for the season (Liverpool, Manchester City, Newcastle United and Brighton & Hove).

 

Date	Game	Res	Score
09 Apr 2023	Liverpool v Arsenal	D	2-2
16 Apr 2023	West Ham United v Arsenal	D	2-2
21 Apr 2023	Arsenal v Southampton	D	3-3
26 Apr 2023	Manchester City v Arsenal	L	4-1
02 May 2023	Arsenal v Chelsea	W	3-1
07 May 2023	Newcastle United v Arsenal	W	0-2
14 May 2023	Arsenal v Brighton and Hove Albion	L	0-3
20 May 2023	Nottingham Forest v Arsenal	L	1-0
28 May 2023	Arsenal v Wolverhampton Wanderers	W	5-0

 

This season obviously we have had six of the last nine and so far it is five wins and one defeat.

 

Date	Game	Res	Score
03 Apr 2024	Arsenal v Luton Town	W	2-0
06 Apr 2024	Brighton and Hove Albion v Arsenal	W	0-3
14 Apr 2024	Arsenal v Aston Villa	L	0-2
20 Apr 2024	Wolverhampton Wanderers v Arsenal	W	0-2
23 Apr 2024	Arsenal v Chelsea	W	5-0
28 Apr 2024	Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal	W	2-3

 

The remaining games are: Bournemouth and Everton at home and Manchester United away.  In terms of games against the top six clubs Arsenal have played Aston Villa and Tottenham and have one more to come – Manchester United.

So let’s compare

Last season: Played 9, with four against clubs in the top six by the end.

This season: Playered 6.  Of these and the three remaining games, three are against clubs likely to be in the top six.

So yes a slightly easier run in this season, but even so the results are very different.

Last season the final nine were as noted: three wins, three defeats and three draws.   This season so far it is five wins and one defeat, with three to play.  So already better than last season’s end.   Even if Arsenal sank back to last season’s end-of-term approach, winning, drawing and losing in equal numbers the club would finish with six wins, one draw and one defeat in the last nine.

This season, in the last six games, the goal difference is 15 goals for, and 4 against with three to play    A goal difference of plus 11.  Last season across the last nine games the goal difference was 19  for and 16 against.  A goal difference of plus 3.

This of course doesn’t tell us if Arsenal are about to win the league, but it does show that the fear expressed in these columns about Arsenal’s sudden “dips” at key parts of the season, has been overcome, and that is going to be the key issue for winning the league next season.   And that’s even without considering what the league might do (if anything) to Manchester City.